RDV Analytics Profile picture
Nov 25, 2021 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 5 min read β€’ Read on X
#Gazprom, the Russian #gas giant, could make record profits and generate 15% dividend yield over current price. #ONGT $GAZP $OGZD $OGZPY

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
On Monday, $GAZP will publish 3Q financials, which will be highest in company's history.
Record profit = record dividend:
RUB 50 - dividend per share at the end of 2021, 15% per annum (RDV calculations).
RUB 110 - amount of #dividends for 2 years - 33% of current value of shares.
Record reporting by #Gazprom may trigger a rise in shares above historic highs.

According to the calculations of the RDV source, the fair price of Gazprom shares is 455 rubles, the growth potential is +44%.

$GAZP $OGZD $OGZPY
#Gazprom's upside to consensus is 37.3%. Most of analysts covering company believe that shares should be worth RUB 400-500. A week or two before release of reports, analysts began to raise targets for $GAZP. This suggests that reporting may be much higher than market expectations
βš–οΈ #Gazprom is heavily undervalued relative to its global peers in terms of P/E multiple, according to Bloomberg analysts:
β€’ Upside to analogs from developed countries ~ 165%
β€’ Upside to analogs from developing countries ~ 70%

$GAZP
πŸ”₯ JPMorgan expects a 30% #dividend yield on #Gazprom shares for 2022.

Well, now the purchases of the @jpmorgan on Monday at the Bloomberg news stuff became clear:

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More from @rdv_analytics

Mar 23, 2022
πŸ”₯ What does transition to sale of #gas for rubles mean? #ONGT

β€’ #Russia will continue to receive foreign exchange earnings: Europeans will buy rubles for euros, since they do not have their own rubles.
1/5
β€’ State is losing interest in a weak ruble. Weak ruble was beneficial to #Russia, since budget received revenues in foreign currency, but spent rubles.

β€’ Foreigners need to hedge risk of ruble appreciation. They will be forced to keep ruble balances or sell EURRUB futures.
2/5
β€’ Moscow Exchange will develop: both currency trading and bond market. The same #Gazprom will switch to loans in rubles, the Europeans will need to somehow place their rubles. $GAZP

β€’ Next, we may move away from the accumulation of "unfriendly" currencies in gold reserves.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23, 2022
⚑️ How much could Chevron stock tumble?

A storm in Black sea stopped all $CVX oil exports from #Kazakhstan.

It turns out that 30% of Chevron oil production was heavily reliant on Russian #oil transportation system, which makes $CVX expose to russian risks.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
CPC transports oil from northwestern part of #Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk for further transportation by sea.
During 2021, CPC transported an average of 1.3 mn barrels of crude #oil per day, composed of 1.1 mn barrels per day from Kazakhstan (~75% of Kazakhstan's exports).
2/10
Due to storm in Black Sea, oil loading at sea terminal of Caspian Pipeline Consortium near Novorossiysk was completely stopped. Pumping of #oil through CPC system is still going on, but tank farm will be full by the evening, after which it will stop.
kommersant.ru/doc/5270959?fr…
3/10
Read 10 tweets
Feb 9, 2022
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί To what extent does #Europe depend on Russian raw materials?

Policymakers fear the bloc is less prepared than Moscow. EU anti-Russian sanctions - shot yourself in the knee.
ft.com/content/26d7e3…
β€’ about 40% of natural #gas imports;
β€’ almost a third of crude #oil imports.

Eurozone gas inventories are below historical levels and prices have risen sharply in recent months, giving #Russia additional leverage over #Europe.

#OOTT #ONGT
β€’ about 40% of #palladium imports, which are needed for emission control catalysts; #greeneconomy
β€’ about 30% of #titanium imports, which are critical for #EU aerospace industry - #Airbus supplies about half of its titanium from #Russia. $AIR
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9, 2022
β‚Ώ The ban is canceled: new concept of #cryptocurrency regulation in #Russia.

Which Russian companies have already prepared?

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
For Russian investors, #cryptocurrencies have become important asset class – there are twice as many funds in crypto accounts as in brokerage accounts. Ban could have a negative impact on credibility of Central Bank and the authorities in general.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
πŸ” If you can't win - lead!

Central Bank, together with Ministry of Finance, found best way out of situation instead of a complete ban - to allow trading in #cryptocurrencies through banks, which will make all transactions transparent to Central Bank.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8, 2022
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡«πŸ‡· Main from press conference following the talks between the presidents of #Russia and #France

#Putin:

β€’ They don't do anything themselves, but they demand some kind of performance from us. Let's not play like that - on the situation around #NATO and #Ukraine.
1/6 Image
β€’ A number of #Macron's ideas, which are still too early to talk about, are quite possible to form the basis for further steps in #Ukraine.

β€’ If you like it or not, be patient, my beauty, you must comply - on #Kiev's attitude to #Minsk agreements.
2/6
β€’ #Russia's central concerns about security assurances have been ignored by #US and #NATO.

β€’ We agreed with #Macron to continue mutually beneficial cooperation in economy, politics, cultural and humanitarian spheres.
3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19, 2022
❓ How will the confrontation between Russia and the West develop further?

Military operations, prolongation of the conflict, the split of Ukraine. Three opinions from RDV sources.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China and Russia will unite against #USA. #Putin travels to #Beijing on February 4. #Russia is fighting, #China is paying. China benefits because it weakens #UnatedStates and diverts its attention from itself.
1/3
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ•” #US will "eternally" delay resolution of conflict. Russia is trying to obtain guarantees to limit #NATO's eastward expansion, when there is a shortage of #oil and #gas. It will be difficult for #Europe to agree to Iranian scenario, other scenarios for Russia are not terrible
Read 6 tweets

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