Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Dec 20, 2021 42 tweets 47 min read Read on X
#Read this new #Report while there’s still time to act!

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

“US-#China Competition Enters the Decade of Max Danger: #Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s”

My latest with Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute!

@RiceUniversity
@RiceUNews
@CES_Baker_Inst
#Xi
#Taiwan
As #PRC/#CCP power peaks over this decade, #Xi may seek #Taiwan as historic prize.

To protect their security & rules-based order, US/Allies must mobilize immediately to deter aggression.

The mission is vital, the stakes are high, & the clock is ticking.

bit.ly/PLA2027 Image
US/Allies/#Taiwan now face “#DecadeOfDanger” w/ peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC as #China has extreme version of “S-Curved #slowdown.”

Xi’s risk acceptance will likely be amplified by his track record of largely-uncountered revisionist actions vs. neighbors & RBO.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
#Xi/#CCP/#PRC are pursuing extremely ambitious grand strategy & goals for “national rejuvenation.”
Addressed in 5-year plans, these objectives are linked to key anniversaries, including Two Centenaries—the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s founding in 2021 & that of the PRC in 2049. Image
***Unless deterred successfully***, #Xi likely seeks a major historical achievement regarding #Taiwan by the end of this decade, his maximum expected window of personal health & political opportunity.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#China
#DecadeOfDanger
#Beijing
#CCP
#PRC
#Deterrence
The 68-year-old #Xi—whose personal abilities, preparations, & available national power are all coming to a peak—will likely be tempted to make his mark on #history through a major move against #Taiwan during this decade...

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#XiJinping
#DecadeOfDanger
#PLA
Danger to #Taiwan is gathering towards the 3rd key milestone year—2027, the 100th anniversary of the #PLA’s founding, w/ its “#OriginalMission” (#初心使命) of defeating the #KMT.

Indeed, #China has advanced key #PLA modernization goals from 2035 to 2027.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
Absent stronger diplomatic, economic & military pushback, #Xi will likely conclude that the 2021-to-late-2020s timeframe still favors the #PRC.

It is quite remarkable, & dangerous, how little cost #PRC has suffered from its actions over the last decade.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
Critically, while #PRC power growth is slowing, America & its Allies cannot simply avoid the contest of the decade by “waiting #Beijing out.”

The situation will get far worse before it gets better, & we will only avoid disaster if we “#HoldTheLine.”

bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…
Failure to #HoldTheLine would allow unacceptable consequences, e.g., losing #Taiwan & severely damaging/destroying regional alliances/partnerships—transformative debacles that would remove remaining guardrails to #PRC aggression & give it a “second wind.”

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
Precisely when #China will peak is uncertain, but it is very likely to do so w/in the next few years.

Given the potential for irreversible catastrophe if near-term #PRC aggression is not countered effectively, US/Allies should optimize planning/preparations to address maximum... Image
...up-front threats, & accept corresponding tradeoffs + risks: the best directed-energy weapons in coming decades will matter little if we lose #Taiwan on our watch.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#Xi
#CCP
#PRC
#DecadeOfDanger
#China
Accordingly, US/Allied planners must urgently mobilize resources, effort, & risk acceptance to maximize capacity to deter #PRC aggression throughout this decade—literally starting now.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#DecadeOfDanger
#Taiwan
@DeptofDefense
@INDOPACOM
@USPacificFleet
US/Allies must now marshal their efforts/focus to “#peak” near-term capabilities & maximize their strategic impact by innovatively employing assets that currently exist or can be operationally assembled/scaled w/in the next several years.

Some ideas here:
bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
America has taken too long to acknowledge & focus on #GreatPowerCompetition with #China, but retains formidable advantages & agility that will help it to prevail—provided it goes all in now.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#DecadeOfDanger
@POTUS
@SecDef
@SecBlinken
@USNavyCNO
@SECNAV
To avoid “losing the 2020s”—and with it the 2030s & beyond—Washington must put its maximum money & effort where its mouth is, starting now.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
US now has an unforgiving—but vital—“gauntlet” to run.

(Reaching critical goal requires pushing past a hostile assembly, while being exposed to vituperation & danger.)

This conveys the urgent, serious situation in which US must prevail over peaking #PRC threats during 2020s. Image
Top 3 takeaways from my new report w/ #GabeCollins @BakerInstitute:

1. Do whatever remains possible to reach “peak” preparedness for deterrent competition vs. #China by the mid-to-late 2020s & accept the tradeoffs.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
2.Nothing the US/Allies might theoretically achieve after 2035 is worth pursuing at the expense of #Taiwan #defense-relevant capabilities that either currently exist or can be operationally assembled, & can be scaled-up, within the next several years.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
3.Much will be decided during this #DecadeOfDanger.

If US falters at this critical time—whether through #PRC corrosion of alliances/rules-based order or impact of failing to defend #Taiwan—many aspects of world & #future will be determined at expense of US interests & values. Image
Things will get worse before they get better.

Over the next few years, dramatic revelations of world-class #China #military progress & selective superiority will shock & awe citizens/influencers in #Taiwan, America’s allies & America itself.

Background:
andrewerickson.com/2020/11/the-ch… Image
Recent public revelations about a paradigm-shifting buildup of #nuclear #weapons & associated hardening/delivery systems—in extreme contrast to prior #PRC history/doctrine/messaging—is but one manifestation of such sudden, sweeping, startling development.

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
Only well-prepared & explained US government responses will stem a riptide of stunned defeatism—& prevent #Xi, his Party, & their #Military from achieving a fait accompli by moving massively & decisively before America & its allies + partners focus & counter coercion effectively. Image
#China’s sustaining the biggest arms buildup in the post-#ColdWar world is undeniably worrisome.

But NOT grounds for defeatism.

Indeed, much proliferation of new #PLA #weapons/platforms today may actually reflect #PRC #economic situation 5-10 years ago.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
Welcome to the #DecadeOfDanger!

This #WindowOfOpportunity for coercion vs. #Taiwan & other aggression is being thrown wide open by dramatic convergence of peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC.

But the same peaking factors are also conspiring to close the window far sooner than many realize... Image
So how can US/Allies #HoldTheLine during #DecadeOfDanger?

Consider what will later close this Window of Vulnerability.

EX: #Demographics matter because people matter—one of the most significant, predictable factors influencing national power & priorities.

PRC prospects? Bleak! Image
To better understand #China’s #demographic decline, read everything by #NicholasEberstadt @AEI!

Key points—#PRC fertility fell below replacement in early 1990s; working-age #population peaked in 2015; total population will peak @ 1.44 billion NLT 2028...

aei.org/profile/nichol…
…new entrants into #PRC workforce will halve by 2030.

By 2040—

1) Typical-marriage-aged males may outnumber females by 30 million

2) 340 million people will be over age 65—more seniors than current total US population

3) China’s #population will be diminishing by 4 MM/year. Image
#PRC #OneChildPolicy prematurely & permanently depressed #BirthRates below replacement level.

And has resulted in growing proportion of “kinless families” of single children with no aunts/uncles/cousins—only ancestors & a child or 2 of their own at most.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
With potentially sole responsibility for as many as 4 parents & 8 grandparents—with unprecedented potential for longevity & correspondingly for all-consuming #geriatric illnesses—couples will face unprecedented #eldercare obligations.

#Aging will impact #PRC national priorities. Image
#Confucian system underpinned by blood ties for millennia helped compensate for lack of rule of law & consequent trust deficit between biologically-unrelated parties.

Shrinking family networks will likely severely undermine #entrepreneurship/#resilience.

discoursemagazine.com/culture-and-so…
#China’s dramatically #aging, shrinking society represents uncharted waters.

Now faces working-age #population (ages 15–64) decline.

This critical segment peaked in 2010 & has since fallen, w/ rate of loss from 2015 to 2020 nearing 0.6% annually—nearly 2X respective pace in US. Image
#China appears to have reached #LewisTurningPoint:

Momentous milestone when surplus rural/agricultural #labor is fully absorbed into manufacturing sector, causing wages in both to rise significantly & a developing #economy’s stage of rapid growth to end.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
#China will soon have more retirees than any society in history.

And #history disfavors the demographically-challenged:

No great power has ever risen with such an inverted #population pyramid.

No country has ever become a #superpower after its population plateaued or declined. Image
Falling birth rates in #China, & even its key markets—which include its potential adversaries’—are conspiring to close the window on #Xi’s gargantuan goals faster & more conclusively than many realize.

In this sense, perhaps more than any other, Xi is a man running out of time. Image
The other elements of #PRC national power are following trajectories similar to the acute #Taiwan-focused #military ramp-up & consequent temporal #risk window that Admirals Davidson & Aquilino have rightly underscored.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

@INDOPACOM @USPacificFleet ca. 2027
Across the entire DIME spectrum, during this #DecadeOfDanger, peaking #PRC-under-#Xi capabilities & ambitions are all “coming to a head” in a striking convergence—producing an acute threat to #Taiwan, & to American & Ally/Partner security/vital interests.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
These factors—& #Xi’s background + personality—suggest that he will press forward to move vs. #Taiwan if prospects look sufficiently promising, but that he can be deterred if the US continues to persuade him that the conditions for a readily achievable victory have yet to arrive. Image
In short, there are ways to keep #deterrence working vs. a peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC during this #DecadeOfDanger—provided that US leaders make it a top priority, starting now.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
Precisely when #PRC will peak is uncertain—but very likely w/in next few yrs. Given potential for irreversible catastrophe if near-term aggression is not countered effectively, US/Allies should optimize prep to address max upfront threats & accept corresponding tradeoffs & risks. Image
The #DecadeOfDanger is upon us—no left time to waste.

America/Allies/Partners must push to maximize their competitive edge as rapidly as possible to avoid an outcome they cannot afford—

“losing the 2020s”—which would also mean losing the 2030s & beyond.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
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More from @AndrewSErickson

May 12
Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI just published a seminal future-forecast article @ForeignAffairs.

tl;dr — #Demographics matter because people matter, greatly. #Depopulation propels #China on unprecedented #SCurved slowdown, as Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I wrote in 2011: East Asia & Russia face catastrophic aging.

Read this #demographic expose in full—or, at very least, these key excerpts...chinasignpost.com/2011/08/15/chi…
"In the decades immediately ahead, East #Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic #demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—#China, #Japan, #SouthKorea, & #Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of #depopulation, in which they will age dramatically & lose millions of people. According to projections from the #Population Division of @UNDESA, China’s & Japan’s populations are set to fall by 8% & 18%, respectively, between 2020 & 2050. South #Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12%. & Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated 8%. The US population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12%."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…
"Because of the effects on #China, East #Asia’s loss promises to be Washington’s geopolitical gain. But the drag on #EastAsia’s democracies will create problems for Washington."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…
Read 18 tweets
Dec 27, 2023
New! #CMSI Note 1: “#Admiral Hu to the Helm: #China’s New #Navy Commander Brings Operational Expertise”



Honored to inaugurate this @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime series with Director @ChrisHSharman!

Here’s what you need to know now about new #PRC #naval leader #HuZhongming (#胡中明)...bit.ly/HuZhongmingImage
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On 25 December 2023, Commander-in-Chief #Xi Jinping, in his capacity as Central #Military Commission Chairman, promoted Vice Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明) to Admiral & appointed him Commander of the People’s Liberation Army #Navy (PLAN) (#海军司令员).

bit.ly/HuZhongming



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@SECNAV @NavyTimes @B_Mulvaney @roderick_s_lee @EBKania @ChongJaIan @CollinSLKoh @knmccauley1 @ZackCooper @ajphelo @ChinaMaritime Perspectives & Key Take-Aways:

#Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明)’s operational experience commanding both #submarines & surface #ships will enable him to guide PLA #Navy efforts to improve coordination across #warfare domains.


/@BonnieGlaser bit.ly/HuZhongming



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Read 14 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
"To spend time in #China at the end of #Xi’s 1st decade is to witness a nation slipping from motion to stagnation &, for the 1st time in a generation, questioning whether a #Communist superpower can escape the contradictions that doomed the #SovietUnion."

newyorker.com/magazine/2023/…
"The clips circulate abroad with the mocking caption 'West #NorthKorea,' but at home #censors vigilantly guard #Xi’s honor; a leak from a #Chinese social-media site last year revealed that it blocks no fewer than 564 nicknames for him, including Caesar, the Last Emperor, & 21 variations of Winnie-the-#Pooh."

"Year by year, #Xi appears more at home in the world of the man he calls his 'best & closest friend,' Vladimir #Putin. In March, after @IntlCrimCourt issued an arrest warrant for the #Russian President on #war-#crimes charges, Putin hosted Xi in #Moscow, where they described relations as the best they have ever been. Clasping hands for a farewell in the doorway of the #Kremlin, Xi told Putin, 'Right now there are changes—the likes of which we haven’t seen for a hundred years—& we are the ones driving these changes together.' Putin responded, 'I agree.'"
Read 39 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
Honored to be cited by @iandenisjohnson @NewYorker:
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

"Andrew Erickson, a professor @NavalWarCollege & a visiting professor at @Harvard, said he’s seen no evidence that #China..."

For further background, see: sites.harvard.edu/coexistence/
thewirechina.com/2022/12/04/fix…
...wants to reciprocate, citing #China’s refusal to discuss meaningful arms control. “I don’t see a basis for deep coöperation” with #Xi’s China, Erickson said. “I’m sad to say that.”

newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

KEY: In what areas is the #PRC under Xi willing to accommodate the US?
•To make the first move in doing so?
•Can anyone name one specific example?

Moreover, in the #PRC under #Xi, is there anything like an equivalent to this high-profile conference @Harvard, w a concluding panel on the subject of “Toward Coexistence 2.0: What Should #CHINA Do?”
Read 35 tweets
Oct 4, 2022
Some context re. reported speed of #NorthKorean #missile:

All #ballistic #missiles are #hypersonic (faster than Mach 5) at some point in their flight. N.Germany’s V-2, deployed Sept. 1944, was hypersonic during its boost phase. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (#ICBMs)… 1/n
…, first deployed by the US in 1959, are high-hypersonic (Mach 25) throughout their entire flight. Subsequent decades have witnessed the emergence of “#hypersonic#missile systems that can maneuver instead of following a fixed parabolic trajectory, including #ASBMs, #HGVs 2/n
…and air-breathing supersonic combustion ramjets (#scramjets). The US investigated maneuvering re-entry vehicles in the late 1970s, the #SovietUnion #HGVs in the mid-1980s; both failed. In 1981, the US fielded the #PershingII medium-range #ballistic #missile (#MRBM), whose… 3/n
Read 8 tweets
Jul 31, 2022
As #Kissinger shouted at 1969 football game, "On what theory?"
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…

An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:

Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles.
"Ducks in a Row" model ≠ theoretical speculation.

#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).

DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."

>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu… ImageImageImageImage
"Ducks in a Row" model allows ZERO room for complacency.

#Xi may well PREFER +-5 years more #PLA prep to attempt max-stakes mark on #history.

But many factors now in play, stakes high, margins thin.

#PRC rhetoric re @SpeakerPelosi trip suggests growing tensions moving forward. ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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