Thread by @AndrewSErickson

#Read this new #Report while there’s still time to act!

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

“US-#China Competition Enters the Decade of Max Danger: #Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s”

My latest with Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute!

@RiceUniversity
@RiceUNews
@CES_Baker_Inst
#Xi
#Taiwan

As #PRC/#CCP power peaks over this decade, #Xi may seek #Taiwan as historic prize.

To protect their security & rules-based order, US/Allies must mobilize immediately to deter aggression.

The mission is vital, the stakes are high, & the clock is ticking.

bit.ly/PLA2027

US/Allies/#Taiwan now face “#DecadeOfDanger” w/ peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC as #China has extreme version of “S-Curved #slowdown.”

Xi’s risk acceptance will likely be amplified by his track record of largely-uncountered revisionist actions vs. neighbors & RBO.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#Xi/#CCP/#PRC are pursuing extremely ambitious grand strategy & goals for “national rejuvenation.”
Addressed in 5-year plans, these objectives are linked to key anniversaries, including Two Centenaries—the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s founding in 2021 & that of the PRC in 2049.

***Unless deterred successfully***, #Xi likely seeks a major historical achievement regarding #Taiwan by the end of this decade, his maximum expected window of personal health & political opportunity.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#China
#DecadeOfDanger
#Beijing
#CCP
#PRC
#Deterrence

The 68-year-old #Xi—whose personal abilities, preparations, & available national power are all coming to a peak—will likely be tempted to make his mark on #history through a major move against #Taiwan during this decade...

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#XiJinping
#DecadeOfDanger
#PLA

Danger to #Taiwan is gathering towards the 3rd key milestone year—2027, the 100th anniversary of the #PLA’s founding, w/ its “#OriginalMission” (#初心使命) of defeating the #KMT.

Indeed, #China has advanced key #PLA modernization goals from 2035 to 2027.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

Absent stronger diplomatic, economic & military pushback, #Xi will likely conclude that the 2021-to-late-2020s timeframe still favors the #PRC.

It is quite remarkable, & dangerous, how little cost #PRC has suffered from its actions over the last decade.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

Critically, while #PRC power growth is slowing, America & its Allies cannot simply avoid the contest of the decade by “waiting #Beijing out.”

The situation will get far worse before it gets better, & we will only avoid disaster if we “#HoldTheLine.”

bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…

Failure to #HoldTheLine would allow unacceptable consequences, e.g., losing #Taiwan & severely damaging/destroying regional alliances/partnerships—transformative debacles that would remove remaining guardrails to #PRC aggression & give it a “second wind.”

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

Precisely when #China will peak is uncertain, but it is very likely to do so w/in the next few years.

Given the potential for irreversible catastrophe if near-term #PRC aggression is not countered effectively, US/Allies should optimize planning/preparations to address maximum...

...up-front threats, & accept corresponding tradeoffs + risks: the best directed-energy weapons in coming decades will matter little if we lose #Taiwan on our watch.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#Xi
#CCP
#PRC
#DecadeOfDanger
#China

Accordingly, US/Allied planners must urgently mobilize resources, effort, & risk acceptance to maximize capacity to deter #PRC aggression throughout this decade—literally starting now.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#DecadeOfDanger
#Taiwan
@DeptofDefense
@INDOPACOM
@USPacificFleet

US/Allies must now marshal their efforts/focus to “#peak” near-term capabilities & maximize their strategic impact by innovatively employing assets that currently exist or can be operationally assembled/scaled w/in the next several years.

Some ideas here:
bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

America has taken too long to acknowledge & focus on #GreatPowerCompetition with #China, but retains formidable advantages & agility that will help it to prevail—provided it goes all in now.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#DecadeOfDanger
@POTUS
@SecDef
@SecBlinken
@USNavyCNO
@SECNAV

To avoid “losing the 2020s”—and with it the 2030s & beyond—Washington must put its maximum money & effort where its mouth is, starting now.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

US now has an unforgiving—but vital—“gauntlet” to run.

(Reaching critical goal requires pushing past a hostile assembly, while being exposed to vituperation & danger.)

This conveys the urgent, serious situation in which US must prevail over peaking #PRC threats during 2020s.

Top 3 takeaways from my new report w/ #GabeCollins @BakerInstitute:

1. Do whatever remains possible to reach “peak” preparedness for deterrent competition vs. #China by the mid-to-late 2020s & accept the tradeoffs.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

2.Nothing the US/Allies might theoretically achieve after 2035 is worth pursuing at the expense of #Taiwan #defense-relevant capabilities that either currently exist or can be operationally assembled, & can be scaled-up, within the next several years.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

3.Much will be decided during this #DecadeOfDanger.

If US falters at this critical time—whether through #PRC corrosion of alliances/rules-based order or impact of failing to defend #Taiwan—many aspects of world & #future will be determined at expense of US interests & values.

Things will get worse before they get better.

Over the next few years, dramatic revelations of world-class #China #military progress & selective superiority will shock & awe citizens/influencers in #Taiwan, America’s allies & America itself.

Background:
andrewerickson.com/2020/11/the-ch…

Recent public revelations about a paradigm-shifting buildup of #nuclear #weapons & associated hardening/delivery systems—in extreme contrast to prior #PRC history/doctrine/messaging—is but one manifestation of such sudden, sweeping, startling development.

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

Only well-prepared & explained US government responses will stem a riptide of stunned defeatism—& prevent #Xi, his Party, & their #Military from achieving a fait accompli by moving massively & decisively before America & its allies + partners focus & counter coercion effectively.

#China’s sustaining the biggest arms buildup in the post-#ColdWar world is undeniably worrisome.

But NOT grounds for defeatism.

Indeed, much proliferation of new #PLA #weapons/platforms today may actually reflect #PRC #economic situation 5-10 years ago.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

Welcome to the #DecadeOfDanger!

This #WindowOfOpportunity for coercion vs. #Taiwan & other aggression is being thrown wide open by dramatic convergence of peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC.

But the same peaking factors are also conspiring to close the window far sooner than many realize...

So how can US/Allies #HoldTheLine during #DecadeOfDanger?

Consider what will later close this Window of Vulnerability.

EX: #Demographics matter because people matter—one of the most significant, predictable factors influencing national power & priorities.

PRC prospects? Bleak!

To better understand #China’s #demographic decline, read everything by #NicholasEberstadt @AEI!

Key points—#PRC fertility fell below replacement in early 1990s; working-age #population peaked in 2015; total population will peak @ 1.44 billion NLT 2028...

aei.org/profile/nichol…

…new entrants into #PRC workforce will halve by 2030.

By 2040—

1) Typical-marriage-aged males may outnumber females by 30 million

2) 340 million people will be over age 65—more seniors than current total US population

3) China’s #population will be diminishing by 4 MM/year.

#PRC #OneChildPolicy prematurely & permanently depressed #BirthRates below replacement level.

And has resulted in growing proportion of “kinless families” of single children with no aunts/uncles/cousins—only ancestors & a child or 2 of their own at most.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…

With potentially sole responsibility for as many as 4 parents & 8 grandparents—with unprecedented potential for longevity & correspondingly for all-consuming #geriatric illnesses—couples will face unprecedented #eldercare obligations.

#Aging will impact #PRC national priorities.

#Confucian system underpinned by blood ties for millennia helped compensate for lack of rule of law & consequent trust deficit between biologically-unrelated parties.

Shrinking family networks will likely severely undermine #entrepreneurship/#resilience.

discoursemagazine.com/culture-and-so…

#China’s dramatically #aging, shrinking society represents uncharted waters.

Now faces working-age #population (ages 15–64) decline.

This critical segment peaked in 2010 & has since fallen, w/ rate of loss from 2015 to 2020 nearing 0.6% annually—nearly 2X respective pace in US.

#China appears to have reached #LewisTurningPoint:

Momentous milestone when surplus rural/agricultural #labor is fully absorbed into manufacturing sector, causing wages in both to rise significantly & a developing #economy’s stage of rapid growth to end.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

#China will soon have more retirees than any society in history.

And #history disfavors the demographically-challenged:

No great power has ever risen with such an inverted #population pyramid.

No country has ever become a #superpower after its population plateaued or declined.

Falling birth rates in #China, & even its key markets—which include its potential adversaries’—are conspiring to close the window on #Xi’s gargantuan goals faster & more conclusively than many realize.

In this sense, perhaps more than any other, Xi is a man running out of time.

The other elements of #PRC national power are following trajectories similar to the acute #Taiwan-focused #military ramp-up & consequent temporal #risk window that Admirals Davidson & Aquilino have rightly underscored.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

@INDOPACOM @USPacificFleet ca. 2027

Across the entire DIME spectrum, during this #DecadeOfDanger, peaking #PRC-under-#Xi capabilities & ambitions are all “coming to a head” in a striking convergence—producing an acute threat to #Taiwan, & to American & Ally/Partner security/vital interests.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

These factors—& #Xi’s background + personality—suggest that he will press forward to move vs. #Taiwan if prospects look sufficiently promising, but that he can be deterred if the US continues to persuade him that the conditions for a readily achievable victory have yet to arrive.

In short, there are ways to keep #deterrence working vs. a peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC during this #DecadeOfDanger—provided that US leaders make it a top priority, starting now.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

Precisely when #PRC will peak is uncertain—but very likely w/in next few yrs. Given potential for irreversible catastrophe if near-term aggression is not countered effectively, US/Allies should optimize prep to address max upfront threats & accept corresponding tradeoffs & risks.

The #DecadeOfDanger is upon us—no left time to waste.

America/Allies/Partners must push to maximize their competitive edge as rapidly as possible to avoid an outcome they cannot afford—

“losing the 2020s”—which would also mean losing the 2030s & beyond.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

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