1. The talks went, by and large, as #Russia/n party expected it to go:
a) #US took most RUS proposals seriously, elaborated thru them;
b) US sought to tie RUS proposals to issues of strategic stability & missile deployments
c) US sought to make it “protracted negotiation process”
2.#Russia made clear it wasn’t interested in linking strat stability conversation to security guarantees conversation – at least in the way the #US wants it.
Ryabkov: “Legal guarantees on the issue of @NATO non-(further)expansion are of the prime significance for Russia”
4.#Russia also made it clear that in the coming Madrid summit it wants NATO to enshrine its “NO” to #Ukraine & #Georgia’s aspirations to join the alliance. This seems the most undoable part of the deal but also the one Russia truly cares about.
5. Ryabkov “#Russia needs “ironclad guarantees” that #Ukraine and #Georgia will never become members of @NATO.. by refusing to discuss our demands on NATO’s non-enlargement #US seriously underestimate the seriousness of the situation”
6. #Ukraine, that seems big on #US/West's agenda was brushed off early on by Ryabkov saying “There’re no intentions to invade Ukraine. #Russia doesn’t have these intentions & simply cannot have them”.
7. #US predictably wanted to make sure #Russia doesn’t seek to use nukes as its step 2 (if the talks fail). RUS happily reiterated this statement cuz no one wants to destroy the other. But the promised Russian “military technical response” may include...
8. ..all kinds of other things, including mil deployments and God knows what else- it’s not MFA’s portfolio then – perhaps that’s why deputy defense minister Alexander Fomin (in the picture) was also at the talks in Geneva.
9. Ryabkov said #Russia will decide on the future of the talks after meeting within @NATO-Russian Council and with the OSCE. This doesn’t sound reassuring, cuz Russia unlikely to hear something promising from NATO.
10. I would pprobably assess this round as “moderate progress on the margins but insurmountable disagreements at the core”.. agree with those who don’t see how we proceed from here.. but see what comes on Wednesday..
P.S. #Russia/n & China’s For Ministers spoke on the phone in the evening (Moscow time).Wang Yi “positively assessed” #CSTO measures to restore order in #Kazakhstan, both “agreed to coordinate” contacts on the issue. Lavrov briefed Yi on talks in Geneva.Putin goes to #China in Feb
P.P.S. Ryabkov got sick & tired of @Bloomberg for "broadcasting an American stance" & constantly misrepresenting #Russia's position: “You know, Roquefort cheese — to make things a little bit stinkier? That’s what Bloomberg does.”
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1/ Eurasian politics can be interesting:
Over the past 3 days the country that seemed the strongest in #CentralAsia almost turned into a failed state. #Putin sent troops to prop up the ruler who endorsed "multi-vector" foreign policy...
2/ ..and the decision had to be pronounced by #Armenia/n PM who himself came to power thru protests and who refused to turn to CSTO at the time his army was losing to #Azerbaijan
Serious clashes between protestors and law enforcement on the streets of Almaty, unconfirmed reports suggest 8 law enforcement killed, many wounded #KazakhstanProtests #Kazakhstan
Mob captures and beats up a law enforcement officer
In another episode, a policeman was surrounded and the mob took away his gun. For some reason other policemen did nothing
I read the title & thought #US was just playing fool.Then I watched @CNN asking abt "#Putin's motives for invading #Ukraine" & heard the answers such as "further dispution of #NATO" & "..constantly testing the West".
I know see why the "blind spot" edition.cnn.com/2021/11/15/pol…
Seriously thou, there're some Russia experts in #Washington who read #Russia well. There're not many but enought to draw on their expetise to make accurate policies. The intel "blind spot" isn't cuz of lack of info or access to #Putin's closed circle...
..It's abt political will to correct the course of action,resists lobbysts & political inertia.
There was no lack of intel on #Afghanistan - thou assessments divereged.There's no lack of intel on RUS,either understanding of why Putin may be inclined to use force...
1/ Charap's reasoning is most realist & reasonable of other proposals coming from Washington these days on how to contain & deter #Russia over #Ukraine. Perhaps,RU does seek to change status-quo but this,as many in #Moscow see it,exactly what #US has sought to do in last 6+ years
2/ In any case, what @scharap proposes seems to be the best option in the given situation - avoiding a major war should be the focus. Containing RUS is much needed from #US standpoint, but this policy too has its own limits & #Putin made it clear the limit been reached.
The problem is not that #Putin directs #Lukashenka's actions - he does not. The problem is that #Belarus for #Russia is transforming into what #DPRK is for #China. But this is Russia's problem, not #EU's.
The problem for #EU is it has long outsourced decision-making on key issues in regions of strategic importance for Europe to #US (which,in turn,falls prey to US domestic politics).
EU won't recognise it. Instead,it keeps looking for "#Putin factor" in every new challenge it faces
The lesson for others to learn is that turning states into failed entities has long term consequences. Lukashenka weaponizing migrants-wrong.
Europeans refusing to face consequences of their own policies (Libya, Afghanistan, Syria) - the migrants ARE exactly that - irresponsible.
This year #Russia's flagship conference - annual meeting of the @valdaitweets in #Sochi - features Foreign Minister Lavrov,#Moscow's mayor Sobyanin,former #Afghanistan president Karzai &,possibly,#Putin himself.The place is amazing & the venue is intellectually rich. Stay tuned.
Day 2 at @valdaitweets conference. @mfa_russia Sergey Lavrov speaks.
Kicks off by detailing #Russia's position on ceasing contacts with @NATO, argues the problems been piling up, #NATO was long sabotaging & rejecting many of #Moscow initiatives