1/ Eurasian politics can be interesting:
Over the past 3 days the country that seemed the strongest in #CentralAsia almost turned into a failed state. #Putin sent troops to prop up the ruler who endorsed "multi-vector" foreign policy...
Over the past 3 days the country that seemed the strongest in #CentralAsia almost turned into a failed state. #Putin sent troops to prop up the ruler who endorsed "multi-vector" foreign policy...
2/ ..and the decision had to be pronounced by #Armenia/n PM who himself came to power thru protests and who refused to turn to CSTO at the time his army was losing to #Azerbaijan
3/ #Russia-#Kazakhstan border is 7599 км (4721 miles) long.The crisis unfolded quickly. No matter who behind the protests, RU 'd not allow for KZ to turn into a grey zone of instability.Even if it wasn’t a “color revolution”, as some speculate,there’re reasons for RU 2B concerned
4/The protests seemed coordinated,well-organized. To me,as a non expert on KZ,this looks like a combination of factors – intra-elite showdown + some foreign invlvment.If you believe it’s purely local,take a look where the protests coordinated from,who “opposition leaders” are,etc
5/ Side comment - interesting today's interview by Mikheil Saakashvili where he's talking about how he met with #Kazakhstan/i opposition in #Ukraine and welcomed "their struggle"
6/ This, of course, in no way should degenerate genuine grievances of the people who took to the streets in #Kazakhstan in genuine protest. I am just saying that like in any unpeaceful protest of the size the genuine grievances fell prey to political manipulations & provocations
7/ #Russia was presented w/ a sudden crisis that it now seeks to turn into an opportunity. That #CSTO was invoked is interesting and imo is a good move.
(a) it’s branded as a collective Eurasian effort, not a RUS whim
(b) gives more legitimacy to the actions to stabilize KZ..
(a) it’s branded as a collective Eurasian effort, not a RUS whim
(b) gives more legitimacy to the actions to stabilize KZ..
8/ c) reinforces RUS position in KZ & Eurasia, demonstrates once again that there’s no other state in #Eurasia but #Russia to take care of its neighbors security in case of dire need.
BUT there’re also some potential pitfalls on the way:
BUT there’re also some potential pitfalls on the way:
9/
(a) RUS effort may be seen (already is by some) as “intervention”;
(b) RUS population in KZ becoming target for angry mob that would take their anger at $Russia on these people;
(c) RUS getting involved in KZ politics on the side of Tokayev (“saving another dictator” etc.).
(a) RUS effort may be seen (already is by some) as “intervention”;
(b) RUS population in KZ becoming target for angry mob that would take their anger at $Russia on these people;
(c) RUS getting involved in KZ politics on the side of Tokayev (“saving another dictator” etc.).
10/ #Syria lessons should help here:
- #Moscow gotta be careful about level of support so that #Tokayev doesn’t start wagging the tail like #Assad often does;
- it’s involvement should be limited in time and size & restricted to peacekeeping, not combating armed bandits
- #Moscow gotta be careful about level of support so that #Tokayev doesn’t start wagging the tail like #Assad often does;
- it’s involvement should be limited in time and size & restricted to peacekeeping, not combating armed bandits
11/ Overall, this is a difficult mission which, if carried out successfully, would level #Russia up in #Eurasia/n politics. But will see what happens next..
12/ All the propaganda about #Russia/ns going “to quell peaceful protests & kill Kazakhs”, silly comparisons to Hungary and Czechoslovakia is what it is – propaganda. “Cui Prodest?”, as they say + a bunch of useful idiots including in Russia. Seen this movie before over #Syria
13/ Western reaction to CSTO predictably negative in part cuz some folks can’t get their own security priorities in a proper order amidst changing international reality. For them #Russia is greater threat than ungoverned grey zones..
14/ This is mirror imaging some moods in RUS that, for instance, see #US as greater threat than Taliban-run #Afghanistan are happy to see US leave Afghanistan only cuz it's US, but what happens on day 2 is another matter.. i don't share this approach - neither re RUS, nor re US
15/ “#Eurasia not a priority for #US,” – every expert in DC would tell you, “#China is.” US thus not willing to squander resources to control vast lands that could get easily destabilized, CIA chief travels to Moscow to talk joint use of mil bases to keep the Taliban in check.
16/YET when #Russia opts to act as a glutton for punishment and help put things in order, take charge of security of its major neighbor folks make noises about RUS imperial ambitions, occupation, etc. How exactly CSTO deployment in KZ threatens Western interests?
17/ The mob beheads law enforcement in KZ, yet some talking heads, mainstream media and Western politicians keep talking “peaceful protestors” and urge #Russia to stay away and when it doesn’t they back to old game of “Russia threat”. Okay then.
english.alarabiya.net/News/world/202…
english.alarabiya.net/News/world/202…
18/It’s hard to break free of geopolitical/historical stereotypes but needed to have the right focus on priorities. There're crisis where #Russia can be instrumental and helpful - #Kazakhstan is one.Potential failures will haunt RUS, but this isn't West concern.
19/ If this not convincing enough,talk to CEOs of major Western companies that operate in KZ – they’d tell you how much they'd appreciate KZ to be a stable,developing state rather than some Boratistan.
P.S. Hope the crisis in KZ managed wisely by all sides
P.S. Hope the crisis in KZ managed wisely by all sides
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