@Halsrethink Bill is however subject to the 'productivity' fallacy of interest rates. That the natural rate is low because we supposedly have nothing worth investing in and hence funnelling money into (usually poorly managed) public projects would help raise it.
@Halsrethink Contra that, there are many obvious instances of the misuse of too much too easy credit in so many fields. It also overlooks that genuine productivity gains may be limited because 'hurdle' rates have been elevated by all manner of govt interventions - hardly to be cured by more!
@Halsrethink We're in a bifurcated world where the sabotage of capital markets has (a) prevented creative destruction of zombies and (b) promoted 'destructive creation'™️ of Unicorns, as well as layering debt upon debt to strip 'cash-out' gains for PE/SPAC Ichneumon parasites
@Halsrethink Against that backdrop, I hardly think that giving free-rein to vainglorious politicians and blank-cheques to central planners would be a route to greater propserity in the most propitious of circumstances.
@Halsrethink But ours is an even worse case because we face not just the issue of unlimited money, but the restriction of supply, the resort to autarky & Ersatz AND the destruction of capital on a scale unheralded in peacetime by the #ZeroCovid #NetZero #WEF Bug-eater #GreenNewDeal fanatics.
@Halsrethink Cynically, the debt overhang looming ahead of Thelma Lagarde & Louise Powell #will be addressed thru' rapid #inflation; then control asserted over the semi-euthanized Boomer by #CBDC remonetization-cum-#UBI+v@xx status+CO2 ration: Youth being all enlisted in Greta's #Green Guard.

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More from @CantillonCH

16 Feb
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look

1/x

#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

2/x
Not that they're alone in their folly, of course. The #ECB is outodoing them handsomely, while the #bankofengland is breaking records stretching back to its founding, 327 years ago.
#centralbanks
3/x
Read 10 tweets
8 Feb
In the 2021's first issue of #Cantillon Effects, we discussed the #inflation which now pervades our lives: not just the narrow, disputed one relating to goods prices, but the inflation of rhetoric, passions, tribalism & despotism.

Over this thread, we'll present our case:-
1/x
Replacing the "public square" with the "cyber swarm" has not been conducive to reason or civility, for all that it has opened up new possibilities of disseminating news and opinion.
2/x
The #stakeholder capitalism being built while we're confined to quarters is a world where, we're glibly assured, " you will (truly) own nothing - the #centralbank will ensure your fake asset's notional price is misleadingly high - and you'll be happy!" Really?
3/x
Read 8 tweets
3 Sep 20
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for having me on the show this morning.

Here's a short thread of the notes - entitled, "Time to Get Real?" - which I put together in preparation.
They should hopefully be self-explanatory:-

#SquawkBox #CNBC #macro #equities #commodities
You've heard it here before: pay out or pay down is a big part of the #inflation equation:-
Yes, there's a "V" - or at least a flipped square root sign - underway, but will it extend far enough & fast enough?
Read 11 tweets
21 Aug 20
...though basically unchanged in 3 1/2 years

#Housing
And, those good ole #FederalReserve policies again mean the monthly cost of an average #NewHome (approximated here) is back where it was 15 years ago...

#housing #QE
...while, as a proportion of the average weekly wage )as per #NFP), well - you can see for yourself:-

As we always say, there'll always be a scarcity of something real as long as there are few such constraints on #money & #credit creation.

#mortgage #RE
Read 5 tweets
9 Jul 20
#China stocks roar on, with #CSI300 up ~20% in little more than a week as (official) #margin debt climbs Y150bln to touch Y1.3 trillion - levels only seen in the peak months of 2015's madness.
Worth noting a rejection here could mean the Jan'19 formation is complete.
#SHFE #SHSZ
As the money floods into #China #equities, #bonds bear the brunt. Wealth Managers are the MOMO traders de jour "Our company's mixed products can have 60% allocations to #stock, but now we're at 70-80%. This is a normal phenomenon [sic]," said one.

#SHFE #SHSZ
This latest burst has also spared #CNY the ignominy of setting a new 12-year high above 7.18, instead pushing it briefly back through the talismanic 7.00 parity. Ergo, either locals are repatriating to get in on the action or Johnny Foreigner is being sucked into the move.
#FX
Read 14 tweets
7 Jul 20
1/Thanks very much to my old friend @steve_sedgwick @SquawkBoxEurope for the chat this morning
2/We looked at #Growth v #Value, the #US v ROW, we touched on #bonds and borrowing, #money supply, #inflation, #lockdown, #commodities & #gold - all in under 10 mins!
3/If that was all a bit rushed, here follow the notes I sent to accompany our chat:-

#macro, #markets
Read 12 tweets

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