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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

Mar 11 • 11 tweets • 8 min read

@TheLancet

NEW—Global estimates of #ExcessDeaths indicates that 18.2 million people may have died because of the #COVID19 pandemic by December 31, 2021, according to our analysis published in @TheLancet
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

The peer-reviewed analysis found over 18 million* deaths as opposed to the reported nearly 6 million deaths, more than 3 times higher.

“COVID effectively increased the global death rate each year by nearly 20% in both 2020 and 2021,” said IHME Director Chris Murray ⤵

💡So what is #ExcessMortality?

Our excess mortality estimates reflect the full impact of the #pandemic on mortality around the world (after correcting for known biases), not just the deaths directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Region with the highest #ExcessDeaths from COVID-19 📈:
•#SouthAsia (5.3 million)
•#NorthAfrica & the #MiddleEast (1.7 million)
• #EasternEurope (1.4 million).

Countries w/ highest #ExcessDeaths from COVID-19📈:
•#India (4.1 million)
•#USA (1.1 million)
•#Russia (1.1 million)
•#Mexico (798,000)
•#Brazil (792,000)
•#Indonesia (736,000)
•#Pakistan (663,000)

India, the USA, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan may have accounted for more than HALF of global excess deaths over the 24 months period.

Because of its large population, #India alone accounted for an estimated 22% of the global total deaths.

🔎 Why is there a large gap in reporting?

Differences between excess deaths & official records may be a result of under-diagnosis due to lack of testing and issues with reporting death data.

Why does #ExcessMortality matter?

Not only does the magnitude of deaths point to the devastating toll of the pandemic, but it also emphasizes the importance of tailoring our #policy responses appropriately for future pandemics. thelancet.com/journals/lance…

@TheLancet

Interested in learning more about the abnormal spike in deaths during 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic?

Read IHME's Haley Comfort, Spencer Pease, & Stefanie Watson's discussion on #ExcessMortality study published in @TheLancet in @ThinkGlobalHlth ⤵
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/covid-…

https://twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1502092732591976449?s=20&t=GiVIBR4MySKfoOsZTmlyiQ

Reader-friendly thread🤳⤵️: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502075…

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More from @IHME_UW

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

@IHME_UW

Mar 11

@theLancet

🆕 ✨According to a new @theLancet study on excess deaths, IHME’s Haley Comfort, Spencer Pease, & Stefanie Watson discuss there were 18 MILLION #ExcessDeaths due to the pandemic in 2020 & 2021. Read their post about the study in @ThinkGlobalHlth ⤵
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/covid-…

💡What are #ExcessDeaths? It’s a measure comparing the trends of deaths in previous years vs. deaths during the #COVID19 pandemic. The abnormal spike in deaths during 2020 and 2021 → excess deaths

Deaths ⬆️ than expected: #India, #US, #Russia, #Mexico, #Brazil, #Indonesia, #Pakistan accounted for over half the world’s 18mil excess deaths, partially due to population size

Read 6 tweets

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

@IHME_UW

Mar 9

@luisaflorr

🧵For #IWD2022, Emmanuela Gakidou, @luisaflorr, @JosephRFriedman expand on their new @TheLancet study about the #COVID19 pandemic worsening gender gaps in 📚education, 💼employment, and ‼️ gender-based violence. More in @ThinkGlobalHlth thinkglobalhealth.org/article/covid-…

📚In recent years, girls have overtaken boys in educational attainment. But during the #COVID19 pandemic (and previous crises), girls were more likely to drop out of school

With school closures disrupting education the past 2 years, urgent #GenderEquity-focused measures are needed to help girls remain and return to school, including economic incentives, safe bathrooms & facilities, and effective communication of education’s benefits with families

Read 8 tweets

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

@IHME_UW

Mar 8

@TheLancet

On #IWD2022, we hope leaders will address how the pandemic has threatened to reverse progress in #GenderEquality by widening gender gaps that already exist in employment, education & gender-based violence, according to our new study in @TheLancet

🔗thelancet.com/journals/lance…

According to our study, political and social leaders can address the gender gap by implementing programs that focus on supporting girls & women returning to school, ensuring women’s growth and empowerment in years to come #InternationalWomensDay2022
🔗thelancet.com/journals/lance…

@luisaflorr

For #IWD2022, Emmanuela Gakidou, @luisaflorr, @JosephRFriedman expand on the aforementioned @TheLancet study about the #COVID19 pandemic worsening gender gaps in:

📚 education
💼 employment
‼️ gender-based violence.

Read more in @ThinkGlobalHlth ⤵️ thinkglobalhealth.org/article/covid-…

Read 8 tweets

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

@IHME_UW

Mar 3

@TheLancet

NEW—The social & economic effects of the #COVID19 pandemic threaten to reverse progress in #GenderEquality by widening gender gaps that already existed in employment, education & gender-based violence, according to our new study in @TheLancet
🔗thelancet.com/journals/lance…

@luisaflorr

🗣“Based on previous crises, it is also likely men will be rehired at rates higher than women. This combination can result in severe impact to long-term income and career progression for #women globally,” said IHME Postdoctoral Scholar and co-author Dr. @luisaflorr

Based on data from 193 countries, a substantial amount of research shows that DIRECT health effects of the #pandemic have impacted 🚹 more than 🚺. Conversely, existing evidence indicates that INDIRECT effects of #COVID19 have affected women disproportionately. #GenderInequality

Read 14 tweets

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

@IHME_UW

Jan 15

We just updated our COVID-19 model covid19.healthdata.org with the latest data & updated our policy briefings healthdata.org/covid/updates for over 200+ world locations.

We've got good news to confirm about Omicron.🧵

The good news:

As expected, the transmission intensity of Omicron is so great that it sweeps through populations in a very short period of time and then starts to decline.

The numbers of infections and numbers of reported cases really seem alarming to most people because they are much higher than what we’ve seen in other waves in the pandemic. But the health effects of #omicron, and the effects on death, are very muted.

Read 8 tweets

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

@IHME_UW

Dec 23, 2021

@AliHMokdad

“Given #Omicron's lower severity, the negative cost of lockdowns and school closures—including financial turmoil, isolation, and lost learning time—far outweigh the benefits.” write @AliHMokdad and @kleachkemon in @ThinkGlobalHlth👇
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/sensib…

Estimates suggest that #Omicron is just 3% as deadly as #Delta and 1/10 as likely to cause hospitalization while simultaneously spreading at “stunning” speeds and will likely infect as many people in the next 2 months as SARS-CoV-2 has infected people in the past 2 years