For what it’s worth, *IF* #Assad’s regime begins sending troops to #Ukraine, they’ll be no more than cannon fodder in a battle & environment that’s completely alien to them - it’ll be like “sending Martians to fight on the Moon,” as I told @WSJ:
When, on the rare occasion, #Assad needed capable urban warfare fighters, he turned to #Hezbollah — NOT his own military.
#Syria’s military was good at brutal, sustained sieges, indiscriminate bombardment, horrific [sectarian] violence, mass torture & organised crime. That’s it.
Within months of #Russia’s military intervention in #Syria in Sept 2015, #Putin furiously reacted to the poor performance of #Assad’s forces — they simply couldn’t take advantage of Russian backing.
To solve that, #Russia had to send in SOF ground troops & work with #Hezbollah.
Their perception of #Assad forces? “Useless good-for-nothings,” was what he said to me in 2018.
At the end of the day, we still have *zero* evidence of any actual recruitment of #Syria fighters for #Ukraine.
Zero.
Everything we've seen so far as been rumor, allegations & unsubstantiated claims by highly subjective sources. Even the video above means nothing re. #Ukraine.
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In the last 48hrs, #Syria's banned almost all food exports, amid acute concern about the implications of war in #Ukraine.
#Syria is *deeply* reliant on staple food (esp. wheat) shipments from #Russia via the Black Sea. Those shipments (& #Russia financial aid) have 100% stopped.
Already, #Syria's fiscal crisis, energy shortages, unprecedented drought & the resulting crippled agricultural output had seen some aid figures warn of a famine in 2022.
#Putin's war on #Ukraine has just placed those fears on steroids -- I'm told #Damascus is extremely worried.
To make matters even worse, the war in #Ukraine has distracted international attention from #Syria & its acute humanitarian crises -- donor payments will almost certainly decline & future pledges will be [further] cut, just as the humanitarian suffering looks destined to worsen.
War in #Ukraine will have extremely negative impact on the humanitarian situation in #Syria -- and #Russia is now more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid access in July.
Any alternative plans will be dead in the water, without #Turkey playing a central role. We need that.
The #Biden admin appears to already be preparing for a possible severing of X-border aid access -- in part by seeking to provide a full sanctions waiver to NE & NW #Syria.
But we'll also need a massive #Turkey-based aid effort to fill [some of] the gap resulting from a UN veto.
#Russia is clearly taking painfully significant losses in #Ukraine -- and is now even admitting it.
That'll surely have domestic repercussions, but #Putin is unlikely to concede anything; he'll double down.
#Syria shows what a terrifying prospect that could be.
In #Syria, #Russia literally flattened urban centers; it facilitated & covered for chemical weapons use; it bombed UN aid convoys & reinforced brutal sieges that saw people eating grass & weeds for years.
#Putin cannot be shamed, only challenged -- but nobody has ever done that.
With an airfield outside #Kyiv already under Russian control, #Russia appears intent on taking the capital before the #EU, U.S. or anyone else even announces punitive measures.
These IL-76s could be landing within minutes, within city limits.
If reports are accurate that the #Ukraine military recaptured the Hostomel airfield outside #Kyiv tonight, that's no insignificant feat -- there were 150+ elite VDV paratroopers there earlier.
It'd also have stalled #Russia's plan to fly in a force to take the capital. For now.
Chilling close from #Putin, clearly aimed at the U.S. & #NATO:
“A couple words for those who would be tempted to intervene. #Russia will respond immediately & you’ll have consequences that you’ve never had in your history.”
As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:
- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.
That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians.
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.
=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**
Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement.