1. Yesterday #IS confirmed that Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi was killed in February. He has been succeeded by Abul Hasan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.
It also revealed that Abu Hamza al-Qurashi, his spox, has been killed.
#IS has warned of revenge attacks in weeks to come.
It also revealed that Abu Hamza al-Qurashi, his spox, has been killed.
#IS has warned of revenge attacks in weeks to come.
2. ExTrac data suggests that this warning of revenge attacks is not likely to be ‘just’ rhetoric.
Just over two weeks after Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Abul Hasan al-Muhajir were killed in November 2019, #IS launched a global revenge campaign.
Just over two weeks after Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Abul Hasan al-Muhajir were killed in November 2019, #IS launched a global revenge campaign.
3. This saw it surging attacks globally.
L: #Syria operations more than doubled in the course of a single week.
R: #Nigeria operations also more than doubled.
L: #Syria operations more than doubled in the course of a single week.
R: #Nigeria operations also more than doubled.
4. Given we are just three weeks from Ramadan—an occasion #IS usually commemorates with a global surge in attacks—#IS may well postpone its revenge campaign until then.
5. The downward trend in its attacks in places like #Iraq and #Afghanistan could be further evidence that something is on the horizon.
See how such a trend precipitated a steep, sustained operational surge in #Iraq last year.
See how such a trend precipitated a steep, sustained operational surge in #Iraq last year.
6. All this being said, #IS is still at a low ebb.
On that basis, it may opt to push back a revenge campaign to a later date when it feels bolder.
(It launched its 2017 campaign honouring Abu Muhammad al-‘Adnani more than a year after his death in the #Aleppo countryside.)
On that basis, it may opt to push back a revenge campaign to a later date when it feels bolder.
(It launched its 2017 campaign honouring Abu Muhammad al-‘Adnani more than a year after his death in the #Aleppo countryside.)
7. Whatever the case, #IS supporters online appear to be having no trouble accepting the news that their caliph was indeed killed.
8. And we’re already seeing a comms campaign showing bay’at from the provinces.
Preparation for that would explain the lull in media output we observed throughout the month of February.
(See here:
Preparation for that would explain the lull in media output we observed throughout the month of February.
(See here:
https://twitter.com/Ex_Trac/status/1501232033947086859)
9. We’ll be monitoring these dynamics closely at @Ex_Trac.
Contact us on info@extrac.io or visit extrac.io for more information.
Contact us on info@extrac.io or visit extrac.io for more information.
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