John Quakes Profile picture
Mar 13 12 tweets 14 min read
1) Long before #Russia, world's main enriched #Uranium supplier, sent shock waves thru #Nuclear fuel markets😱 by invading #Ukraine🪖 mined #U3O8 was already in a sustained deficit⬇️⛏️ with demand for #CarbonFree Nuclear surging.⬆️🏗️⚛️ A Uranium #investing thesis thread 4U🤠🐂👇2
2) #Uranium #mining #stocks are famous⭐️ for delivering investors extraordinary life-altering returns😎🍹🏝️ when they enter a boom cycle⤴️ after a long painful bear market for #Nuclear fuel😩 when supply/demand fundamentals shift🌊 as they have now in a strong bull market🤠🐂👇3
3) #Uranium is a cyclical commodity🔃 that goes through boom & bust cycles based on supply vs demand imbalances⚖️ magnified to extremes🌜 by supply security fears😟 as there is no substitute fuel for #nuclear reactors⚠️ so fear can lead to panic buying by nuclear utilities🛒👇4
4) World #Nuclear Association reports 439 operable reactors (392 GW) & 56 more under construction (62GW)⚛️🏗️ of which 26 are expected to come online this year & next.⚡️🌞 96 more in advanced planning/ordered + 325 proposed🧾 for projected +2.6%/yr growth rate↗️🏗️🤠🐂 #Uranium 👇5
5) To achieve #NetZero emissions, #China plans to build 150 new #Nuclear reactors over next 15 years, #India plans to triple its nuclear fleet by 2031, #France & #UK are leading a resurgence in #Europe & mass-produced Small Modular Reactors #SMR's are gaining momentum.⬆️⚛️🏗️🌞👇6
6) But #Uranium supply is in a deep, sustained multi-year deficit.⬇️ #Nuclear fuel consultants TradeTech see 200M lbs of #U3O8 demand in 2022 but just 135M lbs of mined production + 25M lbs of Secondary Supply (underfeeding, mobile inventory) for net 40M lbs deficit.🗜️⛏️😨🐂 👇7
7) Existing #Uranium mines are being depleted↘️ but there's been a lack of investment in exploration & development of new mines during last 10 years of low #U3O8 prices.🤿⛏️ New investment💰 & sustained far higher U prices needed for mine restarts & new mine construction.🏭🐂👇8
8) #Uranium prices rise when supply is scarce🏜️ which in turn triggers more production to meet demand🏭 but because it's the most highly regulated of mined metals📚 subject to extremes of environmental scrutiny🌲🧐 bringing new mines online is very costly💰 & very slow🐌 👇9
9) Long delays getting new #Uranium mines built & idled mines restarted🦥 plus other unforeseen events😱 as #Nuclear fuel demand grows🏗️⚛️ can lead to fears of an intense supply deficit⏬ launching uranium prices higher & higher🚀 as buyers panic that they won't get fuel😱 👇10
10) New @Sprott Physical #Uranium Trust🏦 has added even more fuel⛽️ to macro fundamentals fire already burning under U #mining stocks🔥 with $3.5B in financing💰 & daily At-the-Market program🏧 to purchase & hoard🔒 millions of lbs of Spot #U3O8, hastening U price rise.🏎️📈👇11
11) New mines⛏️ to meet today's #Uranium demand🛒 should have been financed, licensed & built yesterday🏭 to avoid today's major supply deficit.⚠️ Now a sustained far higher #U3O8 price💲💲 & many $Billions of new investment is needed to build the required new mines ASAP💵🏇👇12
12) But building large new #Uranium mines can take many years💤 for this highly regulated commodity.🐌 Even if U prices were to soar overnight to $200/lb🚀 that can't speed up mine permitting & construction🦥 so U #stocks are now poised to deliver life-changing gains 4 U 💰😎🍸🌜

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More from @quakes99

Mar 12
1) #Uranium underfeeding/overfeeding🍼👶 what the heck is that?🤔 I'll try to explain in a thread that eliminates as much complexity as possible using a "Vending Machine" as a way to keep it plain & simple 😀🧵⬇️2
2) Most #Nuclear reactors can't run on raw #Uranium that comes out of a mine in the form of #U3O8.⛏️ They need fuel called Enriched Uranium Product (EUP) that's turned into small pellets that are loaded into fuel rods which in turn get loaded into reactors⚛️⚡️⬇️3
3) Imagine there are special EUP vending machines set up around the world where #Nuclear reactor fuel buyers walk up to a machine, select Quantity/Grade of EUP fuel they need🔘 & then insert the required quantity of mined #Uranium indicated for their order🪙⬇️4
Read 10 tweets
Mar 6
#USA/#EU rely on #Russia's oil to meet 8%/27% of demand.😯 A ban on Russian oil means finding alternate sources to fill gap & moderate price rise.🎢 #USA & #EU also rely on #Russia for 20% of #Nuclear fuel supply.😱 A thread for U on banning that👇 .../2 wsj.com/articles/biden…
2) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 If US/EU (or Russia) were to ban imports then first impact, I think, would be steep price rise for EUP, enrichment SWU & UF6 enricher feed⬆️ ../3
3) A US/EU ban on #Russia's #uranium would require alternate enrichment plants in #USA & #EU to increase output ASAP.🏭 They've been in low demand, running with excess SWU capacity that's led to underfeeding & large secondary U supply⛏️ to lessen the #Nuclear fuel deficit.⚛️.../4
Read 7 tweets
Jan 15
1) With many #Uranium Explorers now actively drilling in #Canada's #AthabascaBasin⛏️ perhaps it's time⏳ for a thread on how to interpret drill data🗒️ coming soon in news releases.📰 Misunderstanding data can lead to missed opportunities💰 or unexpected losses.😟 Be ready!👨‍🏫.../2
2) #Uranium explorers drill rock core samples looking for signs of #U3O8 bearing ore.🧐 Rarely do they hit high-grade on first few attempts.😟 Geologists first look for visual signs in the core samples. Here's description from pre-discovery 2013 drilling at $NXE's Arrow👇 .../3
3) Visual inspection of core samples is just 1 of many steps taken to see if #uranium is found. Presence of radioactivity is best indicator☢️ so all cores are scanned with an instrument called a Hand-held Scintillometer to produce "Scint" CPS tables for each core interval.🗒️.../4
Read 11 tweets
Jan 1
Happy #Nuclear New Year!⚛️🥳 60-page #EU Taxonomy plan that includes Nuclear as qualifying for low-cost #CleanEnergy project financing 💰🌞 is available for download at this link:
👉 app.box.com/s/f7rgsninwhkf…

Fabulous news for #Uranium sector investors.🤠🐂
Main points 🧵 .../2
2) Covers construction and safe operation of new #Nuclear power plants for basically any function that helps to reduce CO2 emissions - generating electricity, industrial heat, district heating, producing hydrogen - as long as construction permit is issued by 2045 🌞🏗️⚛️ .../3
3) Existing EU #Nuclear fleet is also covered in the providing of low-cost financing for upgrades and modifications that will extend reactor operating life to maintain their contribution to climate mitigation, if authorized by 2040.🌞⚛️

.../4
Read 6 tweets
Dec 5, 2021
U may feel sucker-punched🥊 or prayers answered😇 or got stopped out🤨 by broad market downturn that hammered #Uranium #mining #stocks🔨 but we still have a #U3O8 supply deficit⏬⛏️ vs surging #CarbonFree #Nuclear demand⚛️⏫ with fundamentals stronger than they've ever been!🏋️‍♂️👇
Regardless of where share prices of #Uranium #stocks may be🤿 there's still a growing fleet of #Nuclear reactors demanding far more #U3O8 fuel than is being mined🔀⛏️ with #China #India #UK #France #Canada & other nations planning to build many more.🏗️⚛️⏫
In just the past few months we've seen a major shift towards embracing #CarbonFree #Nuclear #energy🤗⚛️ as once again key to achieving global #NetZero emissions goals🌞 reducing air pollution🏭☠️ & decarbonizing industry in electrifying 'everything'⚡️🔌🌏
Read 6 tweets
Nov 28, 2021
1/13) #Uranium #mining #stocks are blessed with increasingly bullish fundamentals🤠🐂 as surging demand for #CarbonFree #Nuclear #energy for #NetZero🌞⚛️🏗️⬆️ collides with a sustained #U3O8 supply deficit.💥⛏️⬇️ Here's a thread 4U that explores the Uranium #investing thesis💰🧵👇
2) #Uranium #mining #stocks are famous⭐️ for delivering investors extraordinary life-altering returns😎🍹🏝️ when they enter a boom cycle⤴️ after a long painful bear market for #Nuclear fuel😩 when supply/demand fundamentals shift🌊 as they have now in a strong bull market🤠🐂../3
3) #Uranium is a cyclical commodity🔃 that goes through boom & bust cycles based on supply vs demand imbalances⚖️ magnified to extremes🌜 by supply security fears😟 as there is no substitute fuel for #nuclear reactors⚠️ so fear can lead to panic buying by nuclear utilities🛒.../4
Read 13 tweets

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