Thread by @bctallis

#Germany's leaders, especially Chancellor #Scholz seem reluctant to really help #Ukraine-especially by providing #heavyweapons.

(Too) many reasons are given for this, even avoiding #nuclear war, but there's a problem with these excuses for🇺🇦- AND for🇩🇪& its #NATO allies
a🧵

Here's the latest interview with #Scholz in @derspiegel He steers a question about supplying proper weapons to
1) #Germany becoming a party to the war in #Ukraine
2) The danger of a direct confrontation between NATO & Russia
3) WW3 & Nuclear war

spiegel.de/international/…

As you can see from the quotes below
- and despite the best efforts of the journalists -
there's a lot of diversion, deflection & flim-flam going on here ...
The key point seems to be to keep stoking and manipulating fear among #Germany's population

Stoking this fear & keeping the threat of nuclear war at the front of people's minds is an attempt to excuse #Germany's hesitance to directly send #heavyweapons
(even if in all likelihood its a vanishingly small possibility - Putin, so scared of COVID, knows NATO has nukes too!)

It's not just general escalation though - and its not just #Scholz & the SPD.
#Germany's vice-chancellor, the Greens' Robert #Habeck warned explicitly that sending e.g. modern, western tanks to #Ukraine could make the West, and especially Germany, a target
politico.eu/article/berlin…

In the same speech #Habeck also seemed to claim that other #NATO allies weren't sending heavy weapons for this reason - that ignored the tanks, MLRS. howitzers & air defence systems provided by e.g. #Czechia & #Slovakia, which mislead #Germany's public

https://twitter.com/uawarinfo/status/1514922935798177795?s=20&t=Vb8q60hWPuygF-1goxE7VA

Even if it was 'Western' systems #Habeck was referring to, that's pretty patronising to #Germany's #CEE #NATO allies incl.🇵🇱which also provided significant amounts of weapons and other support to Ukraine - as well as openly calling for #Putin's #Russia to be challenged.

It doesn't even make sense as Western #NATO states🇺🇸🇬🇧🇨🇦🇫🇷 & 🇳🇱 all supply #Ukraine with howitzers & other #heavyweapons
(even if some agreed after #Habeck's speech)
lemonde.fr/en/internation…

It also wouldn't make any sense if, as according to some speculation, #Germany is considering backfilling the stocks of e.g. #Italy so that Rome could send tanks to #Ukraine

What this approach really does is manipulate fear of becoming a target or of escalation - incl. all the way to 'World War 3' or nuclear war - to justify inaction/ slow, minimal action. That's really low, considering #Ukraine's needs & badly lets 🇺🇦 down.
themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/22/in-…

BUT it's also really bad for #Germany's reputation.🇩🇪not only failing to do its part and thus burning through the hard won moral capital that it built up after WW2 ... it's also risking its credibility with its allies & thus its own security

https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1516062122752491522?s=20&t=6RD60TQDHtOTfzL1lFKqlw

Why? Because the excuses that #Scholz, #Habeck & others make for #Germany would also apply if a #NATO ally (like e.g. #Poland or #Estonia) were attacked by #Russia
- we can't risk escalation
- we can't confront Russia
- we don't want to become a target
theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…

Deterrence is based on credibility - for #NATO, the credibility of #article5 which sees an attack on one ally as an attack on all.
Allies commit to aid their fellow alliance members in the event of an attack.
#Germany's leaders' rhetoric questions that.
nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…

This is noticed. Particularly in #CEE capitals
- and especially the ones that would bear the brunt of any attack. Here's the deputy director of a leading think tank in #Poland

https://twitter.com/W_Kononczuk/status/1517769238991286272?s=20&t=qnKA1RX2s8xM6q27X98yvA

Now, we can argue about how fair that is - #Germany has after all helped backfill #Slovakia' s air defence so they could supply #Ukraine - & contributes to the new #NATO Enhanced Forward Presence in the country (as well as to NATO & its EFPs more widely.
euractiv.com/section/politi…

BUT this is ultimately about belief on the part of allies and that's what's coming under real question with #Germany's approach to the war in #Ukraine & the excuses it gives for not really helping.
That undermines the contributions 🇩🇪 *does* make
- & its alliance credibility

So too does #Germany's inflexibility on nuclear power

https://twitter.com/FHeisbourg/status/1517124432153780224?s=20&t=brm_CR1lGIrHBWWTYVLesw

& unwillingness to unequivocally endorse #Ukraine's candidacy for membership of the #EU
BECAUSE all this contributes to the image of a very narrowly self-interested approach (however miscalculated)

So, what to do?
Drop the excuses, stop misleading #Germany's public, stop disrespecting allies & pretending 🇩🇪 is not going it alone.
Stop using unjustified fears to manipulate public opinion & excuse inaction
And, above all, really help #Ukraine
(& thus reassure #NATO allies)