Hot off the press: Our Spring Forecast Report for 23 countries in CESEE with the implications of the war in #Ukraine. Whereas πΊπ¦ (38-45%) & π·πΊ (9-15%) will shrink dramatically, EU-CEE countries will see slower growth or stagnation (depending on the scenario). 1/7 #Thread
The 11 EU members of the CESEE region will grow by an average of 3% this year in the baseline scenario; however, in the adverse scenario, which assumes an escalation of the war and a full EU energy embargo against Russia, they would stagnate (0.1%) in 2022. 2/7
If there should be an EU energy embargo against Russia, inflation rates will be in double digits in almost all countries of CESEE. In #Russia inflation could reach 28% this year, in #Ukraine 25%. In #Turkey, inflation will be around 55% β even in the baseline scenario. 3/7
In the negative growth scenario, i.e. escalation of the war and energy embargo against Russia, #Hungary and #Slovakia would be particularly affected in EU-CEE. 4/7
πΊπ¦'s budget deficit is likely to rise to 25% of GDP and will only be covered with Western financial aid. π·πΊ will also see a budget deficit this year of at least 3%. However, an EU energy embargo would jeopardise war financing only in the medium term due to π·πΊ's fiscal leeway. 5/7
π¦πΉ obtains 80% of its gas from Russia. For Germany, economic research institutes expect a recession in the range of 0.5% to 6% of GDP next year in case of a gas embargo. In π¦πΉ, the slump could probably be even deeper than in Germany, given its greater dependence on π·πΊ's gas. 6/7
The full Spring Forecast Report 2022 with the implications of the war in Ukraine for the 23 countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) by Vasily Astrov, @RicGri et al. can be purchased. For our members it is available free of charge. 7/7 wiiw.ac.at/overshadowed-bβ¦
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Vizek: "Very strong public sector, lot of informal economy. Croatia experienced slow growth before, so new normal not really new. But political willingness to reform very low."
New features of the 2018 ed. include e.g.
- new key indicators at #regional levels
- #wages & #investment data by activity now also available for #Turkey
- comparable #structural breakdown for all countries
Find below examples of some conclusions from the newly released data
2/11
All countries in #CESEE experienced positive #economic#growth in 2017, clear leader was #EUCEE with average real GDP growth of 4.9%. Ten economies achieved their highest real #GDP growth rates over the last 5 years.
3/11
Today we release our annual @wiiw_news Autumn #Forecast Report, with macroeconomic projections for #CESEE out to 2020. Below, a thread on the highlights 1/13