#China and #Iran have agreed to expand their military ties. Of course, Fox News and the usual suspects are sounding the alarm. What does that mean, and is there anything noteworthy here?
First, this is nothing new. Chinese military have visited Iran before. They ALREADY cooperate by holding joint military exercises and collaborating on international crime, like drug trafficking and terrorism. China also does this with Saudi Arabia and other ME countries.
They’re likely to continue to deepen these ties, but they’re not particularly strategic or significant. That’s exactly what Bagheri said they’re doing, “expand bilateral cooperation in joint military drills, exchange of strategies, training issues and other common fields”.
The visit is meant to show strength, and both sides will talk about countering the US military and hegemony and so forth, but they’re talking about very modest cooperation in reality.
Of course that won’t stop the war hawks and their sky is falling routine.
As I’ve argued elsewhere, Sino-Iranian cooperation at the present moment is modest, limited, and basically being raised to the level of China’s relations with other ME countries. For more see my articles in @Diplomat_APAC
So what can you expect from this article? It fill a gap in the literature by sketching a narrative of RoC-#Iran relations between 1920 and 1949, by analyzing the factors behind #Sino-Iranian cooperation and competition in the #tea and #silk trades and at the League of Nations.
What did I find? Unofficial commercial interests, including Iranian merchants in Shanghai, played a large role in driving Sino-Iranian relations. Iranian companies were well established in China and Hong Kong, mostly shipping tea. See for example this advert in an expat paper.
The #Iran-#China deal has entered the "implementation" phase. This has triggered a new, yet not unexpected round of #Sino-#Iranian "alliance" panic.
But recent events hint at the limits of the Sino-Iranian partnership. Let's review... (a #ForeignPolicy#IranChina#thread) 1/
First, it's worth repeating that many aspects of the promised deal are overblown and exaggerated, including the fabled "$400 billion" investment. The deal was, and remains, aspirational and with no specific details. 2/
Iran may be forced to “Look East” in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, but the Chinese government continues to look in many directions at once. China has substantial relations with Saudi Arabia, Israel, and a number of other Iranian neighbors and/or rivals. 3/
Shortly after the Communist Revolution of 1949, China condemned Israel in the strongest possible terms. Israel was deemed an “imperial tool for suppressing national-democratic revolution movement of the Arab countries,” and a “Zionist entity,” equating Zionism to racism. 2/
Israel was always denounced as aggressive; any negotiated settlement was a conspiracy and “a betrayal of the interests of the Arab people.” People’s Daily proudly proclaimed “...we have nothing to do with Israel, neither will we have anything to do with it in the future.” 3/
Yesterday, #Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi put forth a Four-Point Proposal for peace in the #Israel-#Palestine conflict.
Why this "plan" offers nothing new and on #China's use of rhetorical support for #Palestinians
(Or, why do I have such a sense of deja vu?)
a thread🧵1/
Wang’s comments resurrected the Four-Point Proposal made by Xi Jinping in 2017, which itself was a repackaging of the Four-Point Plan for Peace of 2013. While the language has varied, the content has remained the same. All 3 versions endorse the international consensus... 2/
...that calls for a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state, condemn human rights violations and aggression on both sides, calls for an end to the Gaza blockade, and call for mediated negotiations. 3/
Yesterday, Iran and China signed an agreement expressing a desire to increase co-operation and trade relations over the next 25 years. This deal has been hailed as a massive overhaul of Sino-Iranian relations that will see China invest $4-600 billion into the Iranian economy. 1/
Opponents have decried it as the "selling of Iran to China" and claimed it contains provisions for Chinese occupation of Iranian land and sale of islands. Iranian conservatives (and U.S pundits) see it as "America defeated". But what is the truth of the matter? 2/
While #CCP Chairman #HuaGuofeng's visit to #Iran in 1978 was meant to project strength, his translator recalled a different mood... (a short thread) 1/
"The meeting between the leaders of the two countries that I was most impressed with was a separate meeting between #HuaGuofeng and #Pahlavi. At that time there was no one but else but myself as a translator. Pahlavi's mood during the meeting was already quite depressed..." 2/
"...He said that the situation in Iran is already very difficult, and his future is "unknown." I was very surprised when I heard this sentence: As a head of state, he had no confidence in himself!" 3/