John Quakes Profile picture
Jun 19 14 tweets 19 min read
1/14)#Uranium #mining #stocks have been thrashed by global market meltdown⏬ but U #investing thesis👨‍🏫 is most bullish in 4 decades!🤠🐂 This🧵will bring U up to speed🏇 on how a record U supply deficit⤵️⛏️ is colliding💥 with a global #Nuclear #Energy Renaissance⤴️🌞🏗️⚛️ 🌊🏄‍♀️👇2
2)Entering 2022, #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech estimated 200M lbs of #Uranium demand versus just 135M lbs of mined supply🔀 for a ~65M lbs primary deficit.↕️ #Nuclear utilities are drawing down inventory & relying on ~20M lbs of Secondary Supply to fill the gap.⛏️👇3
3)But then #Russia invaded #Ukraine🪖 turning global #Nuclear fuel market on its head.🙃 Russia's 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% conversion & 14% of mined U supply have been disrupted by US & EU sanctions, shipping bans & self-sanctioning by western utilities🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️🇺🇸🇪🇺👇4
4)Western pivot away from #Russia's #Uranium has triggered record-breaking spikes in prices of UF6, Conversion & enrichment SWU⏫ as #Nuclear utilities scramble to find alternative supplies in the west.🛒 Anti-Russia pivot also cuts expected U Secondary Supply in half.✂️⚛️⛏️😟👇5
5)Interruptions to EU flow of Russian gas have led to a pivot to #Nuclear⤴️ as key 24/7 #CarbonFree #energy able to mitigate a new #EnergyCrisis.🌞⚛️⚡️ UK & France now put #Nuclear at heart of their #EnergySecurity & #NetZero plans, while Belgium delays reactor closures.🤠🐂👇6
6)Suddenly a wave of new unanticipated #Uranium demand🌊🏄‍♀️ has been added to a global #Nuclear build-out already underway to achieve #NetZero.🌞🏗️⚛️ On top of that, #SouthKorea reverses its planned nuclear phase-out while #Japan moves to accelerate restarts of its reactors.🏇👇7
7)China has already announced plans to build 150 new #Nuclear reactors by 2035, approving 6 new reactor builds in April.🌞 India has announced plans to triple its nuclear capacity, confirming 10 more builds plus 6 giant EPR reactors it plans to build with France.⚛️🏗️⤴️👇8
8)Even #USA is reversing its decades of #Nuclear decline by launching a $6 Billion program to halt premature reactor retirements😯 & spend $4.3B to boost US enriched #Uranium supply.⛏️🇺🇸 Anti-nuclear #California is now working to halt 2025 closure of its Diablo Canyon NPP.🚨🚑👇9
9)Worldwide, plans to build mass-produced advanced Small Modular #Nuclear reactors (#SMR's) are moving into high gear.🏎️🧑‍🔬⚛️ Their #Uranium demand hasn't yet been added to demand models.😲 China, Canada, UK, US, Korea, France... over 70 designs in 18 countries today.🌞🏗️🌎⚡️👇10
10)Global #Uranium demand is surging⤴️ but supply is in a deep structural deficit from years of under-investment.⤵️⛏️ No major new mines are coming online.🤯 Kazatomprom has capped its production at -20% thru 2023, while Cameco will only ramp up production to -41% by 2024.🐌👇11
11)Many forget too that #Uranium mines operating today are being depleted & must be replaced.😲 But with inflation driving up costs, #Uranium prices must nearly double to $80+/lb⏫ for lenders & miners to give green lights for new mines that will take many years to build.🏭🦥👇12
12)#Uranium demand is now rising at an unprecedented rate⚛️📈 and pivot away from Russia adds new "secondary demand" thru a transition by western enrichers from underfeeding to overfeeding in order to replace lost Russian enrichment, driving need for even more mined U3O8.⛏️⤴️👇13
13) Mined #Uranium production data for 2021 just published by World #Nuclear Association came in at just 48,303tU (125.6M lbs #U308)⛏️ but with global supply chain disruptions from COVID-19 & Russia's war on Ukraine,🪖 achieving 2022 forecast of 135M lbs seems unlikely.⚠️😯👇14
14)#Nuclear demand⚛️⤴️ vs #Uranium supply⤵️⛏️ fundamentals are extremely bullish🤠🐂 but global market meltdown⏬ has driven prices of high quality U #mining #stocks to be deeply oversold🤿 in complete opposition to "Best Ever" fundamentals🔀 & primed for a strong rebound📈😃☘️💰

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More from @quakes99

Jun 12
1/19) #Uranium - a Tutorial👨‍🏫 walking U thru the #Nuclear fuel cycle, what it is, the stages & issues involved, so U can understand the term that has every Uranium investor smacking their lips today: Overfeeding!😋 Here's a thread that I hope gives U some key insights.🌞⚛️⛏️🧵👇2
2) #Uranium is a very different fuel than #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear reactor fuel needs to be specially processed & then loaded into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️👇3
3) Mined #Uranium⛏️ is processed into drums of Yellow Cake #U3O8🛢️ that in the west are shipped🚢🚛 to plants in Canada, US & France for "Conversion" into a new form called #UF6 which is then shipped in cylinders🚛 to plants in US & Europe for "Enrichment" into reactor fuel.⚛️👇4
Read 19 tweets
May 8
1)The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis👨‍🏫 in May 2022 is now the most bullish it's been in 4 decades!🤠🐂 Here's a thread to bring you up to speed🏇 on how a record Uranium supply deficit⤵️⛏️ is colliding💥 with a global #Nuclear #Energy Renaissance.⤴️🌞🏗️⚛️ 🌊🏄‍♀️🧵4U👇2 Image
2)Entering 2022, #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech estimated 200M lbs of #Uranium demand versus only 135M lbs of mined supply for a ~65M lbs deficit for many years to come.↕️ #Nuclear utilities draw down inventory & rely on ~25M lbs of Secondary Supply to fill gap⛏️👇3 ImageImage
3)Then to make matters worse, #Russia invaded #Ukraine🪖 turning the #Nuclear fuel market on its head.🙃 Russia's 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% conversion & 14% of mined U supply are a target of emerging US & EU import bans & self-sanctioning by western utilities🇷🇺⛏️⛔️👇4 Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 24
1/10) Prior to last week's #Uranium sector retreat😱 #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech forecasted deep multi-year U supply deficits with 200M lbs demand vs 135M lbs mined #U3O8 supply + 25M lbs of Secondary Supply that will be dropping due to pivot from #Russia⚠️ A🧵4U👇2
2) World #Nuclear Association was reporting 439 operable reactors (392 GW) + 56 more under construction (62GW)⚛️🏗️ with 26 expected to come online this year & next.⚡️🌞 96 more in advanced planning/ordered + 325 proposed🧾 for projected +2.6%/yr growth rate↗️🏗️🤠🐂 #Uranium🧵👇3
3) On Monday #Pakistan announced that a new 1100MW 'Hualong One' #Nuclear reactor built with #China had begun commercial operation⚛️⚡️ which will consume circa 0.5Million lbs of #U3O8 #Uranium per year delivering #CarbonFree #electricity for the next 60+ years.🌞🇵🇰⛏️🤠🐂 🧵👇4
Read 10 tweets
Apr 5
Why has a Western pivot away from #Russia's #Uranium🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️ triggered a chain reaction💥 of higher prices down the #Nuclear fuel cycle from enrichment SWU to conversion?🚀 Let me try to explain in a thread that lays out why #U3O8 & U #stocks are dominoes next in line.⏸️↗️➡️👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ Reactor operators are now trying to lock in alternate fuel supply ASAP to fill that 20% gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 Utilities' first line of attack is to line up alternate enrichment, launching a steep rise in demand & price for enrichment SWU & UF6 feed.⬆️👇4
Read 9 tweets
Mar 19
1) I see @BambroughKevin is saying we could see #Uranium prices skyrocket "2x-3x in just a couple of weeks as #USA is poised to ban Russian uranium".🤯 While impossible to accurately predict "how high"🌜🪐 here's a thread on why U prices would spike on a US/EU or Russian ban.👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ A ban would force operators to find alternate sources ASAP to fill the resulting supply gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 If US/EU (or Russia) were to ban imports then first impact, I think, would be steep price rise for EUP, enrichment SWU & UF6 enricher feed.⬆️👇4
Read 9 tweets
Mar 13
1) Long before #Russia, world's main enriched #Uranium supplier, sent shock waves thru #Nuclear fuel markets😱 by invading #Ukraine🪖 mined #U3O8 was already in a sustained deficit⬇️⛏️ with demand for #CarbonFree Nuclear surging.⬆️🏗️⚛️ A Uranium #investing thesis thread 4U🤠🐂👇2
2) #Uranium #mining #stocks are famous⭐️ for delivering investors extraordinary life-altering returns😎🍹🏝️ when they enter a boom cycle⤴️ after a long painful bear market for #Nuclear fuel😩 when supply/demand fundamentals shift🌊 as they have now in a strong bull market🤠🐂👇3
3) #Uranium is a cyclical commodity🔃 that goes through boom & bust cycles based on supply vs demand imbalances⚖️ magnified to extremes🌜 by supply security fears😟 as there is no substitute fuel for #nuclear reactors⚠️ so fear can lead to panic buying by nuclear utilities🛒👇4
Read 12 tweets

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