Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 20 25 tweets 18 min read
Thread: 20 July 2022: Day 147 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is making "minimal gains" in the Donbas offensive, but #Ukraine is "holding the line". Russian-occupied Kherson is continuing to come under pressure from Ukrainian actions, with bridges and other access points being threatened.
#Australia has been the largest supporter of #Ukraine outside of #NATO, and the Ukrainians have a great Ambassador Down Under, @AmbVasyl.
Pentagon says its information confirms what has been visible for a while: #Russia is laying the groundwork to annex the occupied zones in #Ukraine - the whole Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk), plus Kherson and even Zaporizhzhia.
#Russia's soldiers reporting on the devastation being inflicted on them by #Ukraine around Kharkiv, the second city. The battalion in tatters, under constant shelling.
This is a positive step: #Britain's legal system is notoriously open to abuse by malign foreign actors - not just #Russia, but weirdo "celebrities" and others.
Without #Russia redefining its assault on #Ukraine as a "war", initiating a full mobilisation, it is difficult to see where Moscow is going to acquire the manpower to continue even the Donbas offensive. All the unofficial pools of recruits nearly drained.
Will be interesting on #Russia's supply networks
A classic of the genre: believing Putin will take Kiev in days and then taking a large dose of feintanyl.
The #US's annual human trafficking report has a section on state-sponsors and #Russia's actions in #Ukraine have landed it on a list of eleven states that have a "policy or pattern" of using forced labour, sexual slavery, and/or child soldiers. voanews.com/a/us-places-ru…
The #US has also added #Russia to its list of states where Americans are at a risk of abduction by the government.
#Russia's Ambassador to #North_Korea, Alexander Matsegora, said in an interview with Izvestia that people from DPRK might be sent to #Ukraine to rebuild destroyed cities like Mariupol in the occupied zones, referencing DPRK's role supplying Donbas industries in Soviet times.
Not that #Russia's aims were ever restricted to east #Ukraine, but nice to be sure.
A #Ukrainian soldier fires on #Russian troops and says: "This is for #Syria."
#Ukrainian man in Hostomel near Kiev used the tracker on his AirPods: they were in Ulyanovsk, #Russia. Russian soldiers trashed his house, stole everything: electricals, coffee, batteries from kids' toys, dishes, and, erm, his wife's 'Womanizer' vibrator. zona.media/article/2022/0…
Excellent - if once again needlessly late. #Ukraine could have had a rudimentary air force by now if this had begun in December when it was clear #Russia's invasion was coming.
Interesting in the sense that this is as close as #Putin has been seen to another human being since the COVID outbreak - and #Iran did not have a good pandemic. Wonder if he made Raisi get tested.
#Lebanon is reported to have turned away two #Russian ships that tried to dock while containing stolen #Ukrainian resources.
A court in #Russia has banned the distribution of a book, "Katyn: In the Footsteps of the Crime", by Jadwiga Rogoża and Maciej Wyrwa, about the massacre of Polish elite by the Soviet secret police in 1940. Earlier, Poland's flag was removed from the Katyn memorial.
#Russia has moved a unit from the the occupied Kuril Islands, stolen from #Japan in 1945, to fight in #Ukraine, another data point in the Russians' struggle for manpower.
Promising signs #Germany's population differs with the government practice over #Ukraine
These random #Russian attacks on Kharkiv are not even theoretically aimed at military targets; they are simple vengeance after the #Ukrainians threw back the invaders.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jul 21
Thread: 21 July 2022: Day 148 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is attempting "small scale assaults" along the Donbas frontline in eastern #Ukraine, particularly targeting critical infrastructure like the power plant at Vuhlehirska, hoping to use the momentum gained for a move on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Image
Great piece on the #China-#Russia-#Iran axis: bound by a "hatred of the #US and its global alliance system", any successful policy dealing with these imperial and ideological projects must view them holistically, rather than as independent challenges.
theaustralian.com.au/commentary/be-… Image
Read 28 tweets
Jul 19
Thread: 19 July 2022: Day 146 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has struggled for manpower since the outset and the "problem is likely becoming increasingly acute". The Russians are stretched between offensive operations in the Donbas and trying to defend against a #Ukraine counter-offensive in Kherson. Image
#Hungary overtly celebrating keeping #Russia's Gazprombank off the #EU sanctions list
Read 39 tweets
Jul 18
Thread: 18 July 2022: Day 145 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has been using troops flagged as "Wagner" in the recent fighting in Popasna and Lysyschansk to hold down the official casualty figures. To make up manpower, recruitment standards have been lowered, including recruiting criminals from prisons.
#Saudi purchases of #Russia's energy products has increased
Read 54 tweets
Jul 17
"I might not be the slickest presenter". Some self awareness from Liz Truss. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Truss quoting Reagan and running a campaign "about the future". I think she's perfectly fine to do the job, but goodness she is not a great communicator. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Badenoch going hard at Tugendhat for never having to make government decisions as a counter to his "clean break" pitch. Interested to see how that lands. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Read 9 tweets
Jul 17
Thread: 17 July 2022: Day 144 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia is trying to reinforce defensive lines in the occupied south-east

- #Ukraine applying pressure around occupied Kherson, signs of an impending counter-offensive, which is likely what has provoked the Russian defensive moves.
Read 25 tweets
Jul 16
Thread: 16 July 2022: Day 143 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia's "offensive operations remain reduced in scope and scale", despite "false claims of success" aimed at a domestic audience.

- #Ukraine has shortened and straightened its defensive lines since Lysychansk fell, and has been able to slow RU down Image
President Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak says the National Defense Authorization Act approved by the #US House of Representatives includes $100m for training programs for #Ukraine's pilots with F-15s and F-16s, which should take about three months. Image
Read 8 tweets

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