Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 31 27 tweets 20 min read
Thread: 31 July 2022: Day 158 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update focuses on the de facto annexation of #Belarus by #Russia: notes the missiles fired from Belarus at #Ukraine, the escalating repression, concludes: "likely indicate that [Lukashenko] has become almost wholly dependent on Russia."
#Russia's "Wagner" unit is encouraging illegal migration across from #Libya to #Italy. This causes immediate chaos for border authorities and then, when it leads to broader social tensions, the Russians will exploit those, too.
#Russia's diplomats casually offering support for one of the worst crimes of the twentieth century.
After the summer break, #Russia's schoolchildren will attend classes called, "Conversations About Important Matters", which will focus on "the values of Russian society", as enshrined in the national security strategy. Not clear how many hours per week. zona.media/news/2022/07/3…
From September, #Russian schools will begin the day by singing the national anthem and raising the flag. Modern history for 14-15-year-olds will include recognising the independence of the Donbas statelets, and textbooks have been "de-Ukrainized".
Tim Anderson reliably took #Russia's side over the invasion of #Ukraine ... and then picked a fight with the #NAFO Fellas.
#Russia now visually confirmed to have lost 5,000 vehicles and other pieces of heavy equipment since the invasion of #Ukraine began five months ago.
In #Bulgaria this morning, an arms depot exploded. It was owned by Emilian Gebrev, who has had a previous such depot blow up and was nearly murdered by #Russia's special services in 2015. The Occam's razor explanation of this is that Moscow is behind it.
#Ukraine is applying pressure on #Russian-occupied Kherson, and from within the guerrilla activity is getting more frequent, widespread, and capable. The collaborationist regime is struggling to control things.
Gazprombank—the one major #Russian bank not under Western sanctions—is directly paying salaries and combat allowances to the Russian Army. In short, #EU states are directly paying for the war on #Ukraine. radiosvoboda.org/a/skhemy-hazpr…
The #Russian Army is a hopelessly ineffective institution from top to bottom.
Pentagon takes note of #Ukraine's progress on #Russian-occupied Kherson
The "ambassador" of #Russia's "Donetsk People's Republic", Olga Makeeva, has asked #North_Korea to send officials to participate in the "international tribunal" where the Russians intend to stage show trials for #Ukraine's prisoners of war. Seems #Iran will be asked, too.
Email traffic shows how closely far-Right parties in #Italy, #Germany, and #Austria coordinate with #Russia, and receive cash from Moscow, coordinated through "Tsargrad", run by Konstantin Malofeev, an oligarch described as more Orthodox than the Patriarch newlinesmag.com/reportage/excl…
Thread. Shows how deeply #Russia was involved in the coup in #Sudan in October 2021 and the creeping takeover of the state using "Wagner" since then, coordinating with "Hemedti" and his rebranded Janjaweed to plunder the country's gold and other resources.
#pt: The new United Nations report on #Al_Qaeda and the #Islamic_State points to #Africa as an area where the jihadist expansion is most notable in 2022, and this is particularly true where #Russia's influence has been most significant. kyleorton.substack.com/p/reduced-but-…
Oppositionist Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was imprisoned after his return to Russia on 12 April, is accused of spreading "false" information about the Russian military. If charged and found guilty, Kara-Murza could face an additional six years in prison. themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/27/jai…
#Ukraine resumed shipping through the Danube's Bystre mouth earlier in July after Russian forces were evicted from Snake Island, but restrictions have now been reimposed after a motorboat struck an explosive.
Anatoly Chubais, former #Russian official and head of RUSNANO, a tech company, has been hospitalized in Europe with the symptoms of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare autoimmune neurological disorder. He left Russia in March in protest at the war on #Ukraine. theins.ru/news/253702
#Russia's operatives have never hidden their view of these things: it's all a war with #NATO/the West
Anton Herashchenko, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs, suggests #Ukraine is preparing a WRATH OF GOD operation to bring to justice #Russia's war criminals.
At the present time it *looks* like #Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vučić, is just sabre-rattling for the sake of wounded pride over #Kosovo, but after the events of the last few months, leaders in Pristina and #NATO doubtless want to be *absolutely* sure.
#Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, Anton Gerashchenko, says overnight 29-30 July "a high-precision HIMARS strike destroyed a railway echelon of more than 40 [#Russian] wagons that arrived from the Crimea with manpower", allegedly killing 80 soldiers. news.storyua.com/news/35242.html

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jul 30
Thread: 30 July 2022: Day 157 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: likely that #Ukraine has "repelled small scale Russian assaults" around Donetsk city. "Highly likely" that #Russia has "established two pontoon bridges in Kherson. Russia is tightening control in the occupied zones to prepare for annexation announcement.
Oleksiy Arestovych argues #Russia putting out the video of castrating #Ukrainian soldiers, something known about for a long time, is designed to provoke a reaction, allowing Moscow to argue its a two-sided barbarian war the West must stop with a ceasefire.
Read 14 tweets
Jul 29
Thread: 29 July 2022: Day 156 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update is on the "Wagner" unit, says its "new level of integration [with the #Russian Army in eastern #Ukraine] further undermines the Russian authorities' long-standing policy of denying links between PMCs and the Russian state". Which is British understatement Image
The #Biden administration continues denying #Ukraine weapons, in this case ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles, because of its deranged fear of #Russia "escalating", as if that is an actual Thing at this point.
Read 70 tweets
Jul 28
Thread: 28 July 2022: Day 155 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "#Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson is gathering momentum", with a bridgehead established south of the Inhulets River. Ukraine has used HIMARS to damage the bridges in and out of Kherson, leading Russia's 49th Army to look "highly vulnerable".
Congress has been briefed that #Russia has suffered 75,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in #Ukraine
Read 36 tweets
Jul 27
Thread: 27 July 2022: Day 154 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia making "tactical advances" around the Vuhlehirska power station in Donetsk. Lavrov in Africa, long an interest of Moscow's, trying to blame the West for the food crisis.

Not happy with Wagner being defined as a "private military company"
#pt: "Wagner" is a unit of the #Russian military under GRU. The purpose of the "private military company" presentation is to make it "deniable" - to minimise the domestic political impact of losses and to distance Moscow internationally from its atrocities foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/06/wha…
Read 62 tweets
Jul 26
[1/2] #Ukraine's President Zelensky in his speech tonight noted #Russia's troop losses in his country; lauded the improving relations with Latin America (Chile, Paraguay, Costa Rica, and now Uruguay); and thanked @BorisJohnson for the Churchill Award and #Britain's support.
[2/2] Zelensky: The awards in #Britain and the #Netherlands are a reflection of the changed attitudes toward #Ukraine: "Our bravery is truly an inspiration for all free nations and the community of democracies ... Just imagine how inspiring the Ukrainian victory will be".
Read 19 tweets
Jul 26
Was saying to my housemate last night that it is strange that, when it comes to the schism in the British electorate/political class that Brexit exposed so sharply, Truss is on the "Brexit" side of it and Sunak is coded as the "Remainer". But it does make a certain kind of sense.
Brexit-as-policy faded once it was done; we're left now with Brexit-as-symbol, a marker of political instinct/tribe, class, and so on. And in that sense Sunak's libertarian, "Singapore-style" Brexit position is closer to the Remainers.
Who knows what Truss really believes, but in her public life, which is all you can judge a politician by, she accepted the referendum result, has said she was wrong to vote Remain, and worked in government to fulfil the things that most of the Brexiteers wanted.
Read 4 tweets

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