John Quakes Profile picture
Aug 21 26 tweets 31 min read
1) While market meltdowns🫠 & #Ukraine war FUD😱 may be raining on #Uranium for now⛈️ a huge Shockwave💥 dubbed 'overfeeding'🍼 is already crashing thru the seemingly calm #Nuclear fuel market.🌀⚛️⛏️ I've created a Tutorial👨‍🏫🧵 to help prepare U to ride the coming wave.🌊🏄💰👇2
2) #Uranium is a very different fuel than #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear reactor fuel needs to be specially processed & then packaged into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️👇3
3) Mined #Uranium⛏️ is processed into drums of Yellow Cake #U3O8🛢️ that in the west are shipped🚢🚛 to plants in Canada, US & France for "Conversion" into a gas form called #UF6 which is then shipped in cylinders🚛 to plants in US & Europe for "Enrichment" into reactor fuel.⚛️👇4
4) Enriched #Uranium (EUP) is then shipped🚛 to a fuel fabrication plant🏭 where it is processed into solid "Pellets" that are loaded into reactor fuel rods that are bundled into "fuel assemblies" ready to be shipped🚛 to #Nuclear power plants for loading into reactors⚛️⚡️🌞🧵👇5
5) These stages of #Uranium processing are together called the "#Nuclear Fuel Cycle".⚛️ Operators of reactors have to sign contracts🧾 with companies providing Mining, Conversion, Enrichment, Fuel Fabrication, and as well must arrange shipments between each facility. 🌎🚢🚛🚂👇6
6) With #Uranium having to be shipped to plants in various locations worldwide for each of the #Nuclear fuel cycle stages, as fuel buyers compete for contracts to get their reactor fuel processed, it can take 2+ years to go from mined #U3O8⛏️ to delivered fuel assemblies.⚛️🦥👇7
7) #Nuclear reactor fuel must be ordered/contracted at least 2 years before it's scheduled for loading into reactors⏳😯 but that lead time can be cut in half✂️ if reactor operators buy already converted UF6 held by a supplier, bypassing #Uranium #mining & conversion stages.🐎👇8
8) Which brings us to "underfeeding."🍼 Without getting too technical👶 after Fukushima in 2011, demand for enriched #Uranium fell⤵️ but for technical reasons enrichment devices have to be kept spinning at full throttle.🌀 Enrichers switched gears⚙️ to operate differently🏎️👇9
9) Enrichers can spin the #UF6 feed for longer periods to achieve the desired #Uranium enrichment % while using less UF6.😯 A contract might call for 6 x UF6 cylinders, but enricher would only use 5 then sell the extra UF6 back into the market.💰 That is "underfeeding"🍼🧵👇10
10) Underfeeding led to an excess of #UF6 in the market, known as "secondary supply", that #Nuclear utilities could buy instead of signing contracts for Conversion.🧾✖️ Demand & prices for Conversion & mined #U3O8 plummeted.⤵️ Honeywell shut down only US Conversion plant!🇺🇸😯👇11
11) Demand for mined #U3O8 plummeted⬇️⛏️ due to oversupply.♒️ New mine projects were cancelled✖️ many mines closed🏭⛔️ investment in exploration fell off a cliff 💰⤵️ as did #Uranium supply & prices😟even tho #Nuclear fuel demand has been rising year after year🌞⚛️🏗️⤴️👇12
12) Today #Nuclear power capacity & #Uranium demand is greater than it was before Fukushima.⚛️🏗️⤴️🤠🐂 Demand is surging in a global decarbonization drive to fight #ClimateChange & achieve #NetZero🌞in midst of an #EnergyCrisis.⚡️ A 'Nuclear Renaissance' is now underway.🌞⏫👇13
13) Even before #Russia invaded #Ukraine to upend fuel markets🪖💣 #Nuclear demand was circa 200 Million lbs of #Uranium this year, but mined supply at only 135 Million lbs.🤯 'Underfeeding' was providing about 20M lbs/year of Secondary Supply for net -45M lbs deficit.⚛️⛏️⏬👇14
14) #Russia has been supplying 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% of Conversion & 14% of mined U supply.⚛️⛏️ #Nuclear utilities in US & Europe are now pivoting away from Russian supply🇷🇺⛏️⛔️ with shipping also disrupted🚢🚛🚂 impacting ~20% of US & #EU Nuclear fuel supply✂️👇15
15) Demand for Western enriched #Uranium & Conversion has surged⤴️⚛️ spiking the prices for enrichment SWU & Conversion like never before⏫as #Nuclear utilities scramble to secure alternative supply.🛒 Conversion price has spiked to an all-time industry high!🌋👇16
16) But with the west pivoting away from dependence on #Russia's enriched #Uranium🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️ there's not enough enrichment capacity in US & Europe to meet demand so enrichers that had been 'underfeeding' their plants are performing a magic trick🎩🐇 by switching gears again⚙️🏎️👇17
17) Western enrichers are switching from 'underfeeding' to 'overfeeding'🍼🍼 so they can enrich a lot more #Uranium at a faster pace.🏇 By feeding extra UF6 they can shorten enrichment time⌛️ to try to keep up with demand, but must buy the extra #UF6 feed in the market!🛒🤠🐂👇18
18) But #Nuclear fuel consultants are saying that supply of #UF6 is running out.🏜️ More Conversion of mined #U3O8 is needed ASAP in order to produce more #UF6.⏫ Cost of Conversion has risen to an all-time high.🌋 Luckily, Honeywell is restarting their US conversion plant🏭🇺🇸👇19
19) As Conversion ramps back up⤴️ #Nuclear utilities must purchase more mined #U3O8🛒⛏️ to be converted to #UF6🏭 so enrichers can "overfeed"🍼🍼 to produce more enriched #Uranium to replace lost Russian supply.🇷🇺⛔️ This is the Shockwave💥 that has yet to hit #U3O8 price!🌊⛏️👇20
20) Overfeeding🍼🍼will result in most of that 20M lbs of 'Secondary Supply' disappearing💥 to be replaced by 20-30M lbs of new 'Secondary Demand' which #Nuclear fuel consultants estimate could push today's -45M lbs #Uranium supply deficit to -90M lbs over next few years.🤯⏬👇21
21) But there aren't enough idled & new #Uranium mines able to meet that massive demand🤷‍♂️ & it can take many years to develop #Uranium deposits into mines🐌 so #U3O8 prices will spike very high due to under-supplied market🚀🌜while operating mines are already in decline.⛏️↘️👇22
22) This is why many #Uranium market veterans say that fundamentals today are best they have ever seen in the industry's history.🏆 A record #U3O8 supply deficit⤵️⛏️ is colliding💥 with a global #Nuclear Renaissance⤴️🌞🏗️⚛️ creating a massive investment opportunity 4U 🌊🏄‍♀️💰👇23
23) #Nuclear as become a key #CarbonFree 24/7 #CleanEnergy source to mitigate a new #EnergyCrisis.🌞⚛️⚡️ UK & France now put #Nuclear at heart of their #EnergySecurity & #NetZero plans, while Belgium & even anti-Nuclear Germany are rethinking planned reactor closures.🤯🤠🐂👇24
24) #SouthKorea has reversed its planned nuclear phase-out while #Japan accelerates restarts of its reactors.🏇⚡️ #USA is investing $36 Billion to keep its #Nuclear fleet running. 🇺🇸 Anti-nuclear #California is now working to halt 2025 closure of its Diablo Canyon NPP.🚨🚑🤯👇25
25) #Uranium investment opportunity has never been more bullish🤠🐂 but shares of high quality U #mining #stocks remain deeply oversold🤿 in spite of "Best Ever" fundamentals🔀 & primed for a strong rebound.🚀🌜I hope this🧵 has helped U get ready to ride the coming wave.🌊🏄💰☘️
26) For more details on the #Uranium #investing thesis & #Nuclear #energy, as well as info & ideas on U #mining #stocks & ETF's for your own portfolio📂💡 please browse thru this library of tweets I have compiled into a Guide📖 to aid your research.🧐👇🤠 twitter.com/i/events/11378…

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More from @quakes99

Aug 20
In 2017 #Kazakhstan cut its #Uranium production to -20% below max permitted levels for 3 years 2018-2020⚛️⛏️⤵️ extended 3 times since thru 2023.➡️ Yesterday they extended cuts thru 2024 at -10% below max levels↗️ as #U3O8 prices still don't signal a return to full production.🤠🐂
Tho #Kazakhstan says it's intending to begin to raise its #Uranium production 18 months from now in 2024🐌 they warned in their H1/2022 results yesterday that they may not be able to increase production in 2024⚠️ due to "significant challenges" created by global supply chains.🚛
Even if Kazatomprom $KAP & its JV partners can increase production in 2024, it's very unlikely any new supply will go to western utilities.⚠️ #Kazakhstan has a deal with #China to fill a 23,000tU (60 Million lbs #U3O8) #Uranium storage facility by 2026, taking all available lbs🇨🇳
Read 4 tweets
Aug 14
1) The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis in a nutshell🥜🧵 is that after Fukushima the price of #U3O8 sank, new mine projects were cancelled, many mines closed, investment dropped 💰⤵️ as investors thought "#Nuclear #energy is dying"🪦 but they were wrong!✖️😯 .../2👇
2) #Nuclear #energy has actually been growing steadily over past decade so that #Uranium demand today is back where it was before Fukushima.🌞⚛️🏗️↗️ A #Nuclear renaissance has been quietly underway for years but few have noticed🤷 and it's set to grow for years to come!⏫ .../3👇
3) Rising #Nuclear demand🌞⚛️🏗️⤴️ as #Uranium supplies declined⛏️⤵️ has led to a massive mined supply deficit⏬ estimated earlier this year by industry consultants at ~65M lbs #U3O8 in 2022, partially offset by ~20M lbs of 'Secondary Supply' from other non-mined sources.⛏️.../4👇
Read 5 tweets
Aug 12
Fellow $UEX holders,
After careful review🧐 it appears to me that UNLESS $UEX shareholders vote AGAINST the proposed takeover by #Uranium Energy $UEC on Monday at 10AM, Denison's Superior Proposal will become null & void and the bidding war will grind to a halt.⚔️⛔️ .../2
2) According to the terms of $UEC's Agreement with $UEX, they have 5 business days from August 9th in which to match Denison's Superior Proposal which, correct me if I'm wrong, is by 5PM Vancouver time on Monday, August 15, 5 hours AFTER the 10AM UEX shareholders meeting. .../3
3) IF that's the case then $UEC may not even present a matching offer to Denison's proposal prior to the $UEX shareholder meeting. If $UEX holders vote >66.6% FOR the $UEC takeover at that meeting "as recommended" then the deal is approved & no further bids will be considered../4
Read 5 tweets
Jul 26
Question 4 U @brandon_munro et al re knock-on effects on WNA #Uranium demand figures from overfeeding by enrichers: WNA quotes U demand at 62,496tU (162.5M lbs #U3O8) per 393,744MW #Nuclear capacity = ~413K lbs/1000MW. AFAI can tell, this figure accounts for a SWU surplus... Image
2) which has led to underfeeding which reduced amount of #Uranium (UF6 & mined #U3O8) required to enrich #Nuclear fuel to achieve the necessary fuel load for each reactor, circa 15% below that which would be needed if there was no SWU surplus. Is that correct?🤔 in other words...
3) without underfeeding, #Uranium(#U3O8) demand per 1000MW of #Nuclear rises by circa 15% to 475K lbs.⬆️ As enrichers move to overfeeding by say 15%, will WNA then raise their U requirements to 546K lbs/1000MW for western reactors not supplied by Russia?🤔 As well, SWU deficit...
Read 4 tweets
Jul 24
1) The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis in a nutshell🥜🧵 is that after Fukushima the price of #U3O8 sank, new mine projects were cancelled, many mines closed, investment dropped 💰⤵️ as investors thought "#Nuclear #energy is dying"🪦 but they were wrong!✖️😯 .../2👇
2) #Nuclear #energy has actually been growing steadily over past decade so that #Uranium demand today is back where it was before Fukushima.🌞⚛️🏗️↗️ A #Nuclear renaissance has been quietly underway for years but few have noticed🤷 and it's set to grow for years to come! .../3👇
3) Rising #Nuclear demand🌞⚛️🏗️⤴️ as #Uranium supplies declined⛏️⤵️ has led to a massive mined supply deficit⏬ estimated earlier this year by industry consultants at ~65M lbs #U3O8 in 2022, partially offset by ~20M lbs of Secondary Supply from other non-mined sources.⛏️.../4👇
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
1/14)#Uranium #mining #stocks have been thrashed by global market meltdown⏬ but U #investing thesis👨‍🏫 is most bullish in 4 decades!🤠🐂 This🧵will bring U up to speed🏇 on how a record U supply deficit⤵️⛏️ is colliding💥 with a global #Nuclear #Energy Renaissance⤴️🌞🏗️⚛️ 🌊🏄‍♀️👇2
2)Entering 2022, #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech estimated 200M lbs of #Uranium demand versus just 135M lbs of mined supply🔀 for a ~65M lbs primary deficit.↕️ #Nuclear utilities are drawing down inventory & relying on ~20M lbs of Secondary Supply to fill the gap.⛏️👇3
3)But then #Russia invaded #Ukraine🪖 turning global #Nuclear fuel market on its head.🙃 Russia's 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% conversion & 14% of mined U supply have been disrupted by US & EU sanctions, shipping bans & self-sanctioning by western utilities🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️🇺🇸🇪🇺👇4
Read 14 tweets

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