Rick Rieder Profile picture
Aug 26 11 tweets 8 min read
In his @federalreserve #JacksonHole speech #ChairPowell stated emphatically that the #FOMC’s “overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.”
In other words, we take his statement today to mean that the #Fed won’t be easily swayed into reversing rate #hikes next year, and will stay with the elevated Funds rate for a long time.
The #Fed has clearly been (appropriately) rushing to get to a destination of #inflation-denting restrictive rate (and #liquidity) policy in order to break extremely high levels of inflation, while hopefully not thrusting the economy into a deep #recession.
Many have suggested that the Fed has to move rates much higher (toward, or above, the existing level of inflation) in order to break these higher #inflationary expectations.
Yet, #markets have recognized the #Fed’s vigilance in bringing 5-year and 10-year #InflationBreakevens to 2.80% and 2.60%, respectively, in line with higher than target inflation, but presumably acceptable levels relative to today’s extremely elevated inflation.
This inflation-fighting credibility, alongside of a clearly moderating #economy, suggest that the #Fed may be able to move quickly with another historically high-rate adjustment, so that they can get the Funds rate more firmly in restrictive policy and then can wait and watch.
Monetary #policy works with long and variable lags and thus moving briskly to the mid- to high- 3% range on the #FedFunds rate will allow the Fed to get to its destination and then to relax and watch its policy adjustments work.
Still, while it’s absolutely imperative that the #Fed get the currently high rate of #inflation under control, we’re concerned about the potential for the central bank to overdo #tightening and undo much of the progress that has been made in recovering from the pandemic shock.
In fact, since the Covid crisis began, #wages are higher across the board, and importantly, this has been especially true for lower #income cohorts. Image
As a result, while the #Fed clearly needs to continue #tightening, policy makers will want to be very careful to not unnecessarily derail some of these longer-term positive trends, while keeping rates elevated for an extended period of time for the economy to structurally adjust.
For the sake of the gains made by many in the post-Covid recovery period, we hope #policymakers keep as close an eye on these factors as they do on the damaging impact of #inflation itself, which as we heard again today is at the forefront of the Chairman’s policy attention.

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More from @RickRieder

Aug 24
As we approach the @federalreserve’s monetary policy conference at #JacksonHole this week, a question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether the abundance of survey-based, and goods-oriented, #economic data may be overstating the weakness in the #economy as a whole?
Without question, many broad-based surveys, including those focused on #ConsumerConfidence and small #business optimism, are painting a very bleak picture of the #economic trajectory. Image
And at the same time, many goods/manufacturing sector data points are portending continued significant weakening of the sector. Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 10
The headline #inflation data today moderated a bit on the back of falling #gasoline prices, but it’s still running at a worryingly high rate.
Over time, we think the slowdown in #economic growth, the continuation of the @federalreserve’s assertive #HikingCycle and the possibility of resolution with several persistent supply chain issues should influence broad #inflation lower.
Still, while #CorePCE inflation (the #Fed’s favored measure) is likely to moderate in the coming months, it’ll still remain well-above the Fed’s 2% #inflation target.
Read 15 tweets
Jul 11
The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 16
The @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 0.75% yesterday, to between 1.50% and 1.75%, as was increasingly anticipated.
The move by the #Fed to progress faster to neutral will be applauded in the long run by the #economy, business decision-makers and ultimately by# markets.
Like putting your car’s transmission (automatic or manual) into #neutral, getting to that place allows for decision-making flexibility given changing road conditions, particularly when the road to the #destination has become increasingly #murky.
Read 13 tweets
Jun 10
Core #CPI (excluding those volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and rose 6.0% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a very strong 1.0% month-over-month and came in at 8.6% year-over-year, spiking higher on #shelter, #gas and food costs.
These persistently outsized gains in #inflation are clearly having an impact on business and #ConsumerConfidence. Also, the #Fed’s favored measure of inflation, core #PCE, increased 0.34% in April, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 14 tweets
May 4
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
Read 16 tweets

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