Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #inflationary
Most recents (6)
CPI Preview vs Realized CPI
1. #CPI data came out largely in line with our expectations. Our expectations were for a print of 0.17%, while the print came in at 0.10%. Below, we show the composition of our estimates relative to the realized print:
1. #CPI data came out largely in line with our expectations. Our expectations were for a print of 0.17%, while the print came in at 0.10%. Below, we show the composition of our estimates relative to the realized print:
2. Our pre-view note mentioned two factors we would be watching out for. First, we were looking to see whether #motor vehicle inflation remains persistent.
3. Given the industry dynamics we monitor, there was a potential for new cars to see deflation as manufacturing productions alleviate some degree of supply shortages. Nonetheless, #used car inflation likely showed significant potential to re-accelerate this month.
A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
In his @federalreserve #JacksonHole speech #ChairPowell stated emphatically that the #FOMC’s “overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.”
In other words, we take his statement today to mean that the #Fed won’t be easily swayed into reversing rate #hikes next year, and will stay with the elevated Funds rate for a long time.
The #Fed has clearly been (appropriately) rushing to get to a destination of #inflation-denting restrictive rate (and #liquidity) policy in order to break extremely high levels of inflation, while hopefully not thrusting the economy into a deep #recession.
September witnessed a somewhat disappointing nonfarm #payroll gain of 194,000 jobs, which was weaker than the upwardly revised August gain of 365,000 and was well below #economists’ consensus estimates of nearly 490,000 jobs.
Clearly, there are significant #labor supply issues limiting the pace of recovery. Further, the #unemployment rate declined meaningfully, from 5.2% to 4.8% in Sept, and average hourly #earnings saw gains of 0.62% m-o-m, which brings the measure to 4.58% greater on a y-o-y basis.
The most interesting part of today’s #JobsReport, and much of the other recent #economic/corporate data, is that it’s the supply of resources that’s creating systemic pricing pressure, as well as consequently dulling growth of an #economy not lacking demand in virtually any area.
#RealInvestmentReport is out!
Despite the expected #surge in #inflation early in the week, #bulls picked themselves up to rally #stocks into Friday. We discuss the potential for a short-term #bounce, why the #Fed will make a #mistake, and #postioning now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
Despite the expected #surge in #inflation early in the week, #bulls picked themselves up to rally #stocks into Friday. We discuss the potential for a short-term #bounce, why the #Fed will make a #mistake, and #postioning now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
#LessonLearned - don't anticipate the turn in your #technicalsignals. As noted last week, it "seemed" the signal had turned, but it didn't. The #signal is very #oversold, so set up for a short-term #bounce is likely. Caution is still advised for now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
If we are #correct in our assessment about the roll-off #effect of #stimulus and #liquidity, we could well see #bonds outperform #stocks in 2022. We are watching very closely as we currently hold minimal duration in our fixed-income #portfolios.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
Good morning FinTwit 🙂 Trust you are well! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I hear #Gold has broken up and out - and we are now on the way to new highs.... Gold Bulls are VERY confident - and we see very creative charts to prove the break out. Well - this is how I see it #HZupdates
#Gold has been in a long correction phase starting 2011. Corrections develop in ABC-patterns. Wave B often is a triangle - which get's all the Gold Bulls excited about new highs - just before the major last plunge #HZupdates
