Local sources say 12+ killed in #Baghdad today.

Despite curfew, heavy gunfire & explosions heard in #Baghdad -- multiple security offices attacked. Green Zone on security alert & U.S. Embassy sirens sounding off.

In #Mosul, security forces say they foiled a major #ISIS attack.
The situation in #Baghdad is deteriorating fast -- mortars, rockets, RPGs & heavy machine guns all reportedly in use, including within/targeted at the Green Zone. Many casualties; grisly images emerging.

#Basra also in a very bad place -- heavy fighting too.

#Iraq spiraling.
Heavy fighting outside #Iraq's Parliament tonight, as pro-#Sadr & pro-#Iran factions confront.

Dutch Embassy personnel have just evacuated to #Germany's Embassy.

2 soldiers & 20+ protesters dead -- dozens more injured.

Locals in central #Baghdad claim that pro-#Iran militias are dropping explosive munitions from drones they’re flying above pro-#Sadr protesters.

Unverified for now, but speaks to the chaos and scale of violence tonight.
Very hard to discern a complete, reliable picture from #Baghdad tonight, but what is clear is that the Sadrists have been extremely well prepared — hitting #Iran-associated KH, Badr etc. targets one by one.

The more this spreads, the harder it is to envision a durable solution.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Aug 31
NEW -- reports of a possible #Israel airstrikes hitting #Iran-linked targets in the western edge of #Aleppo International Airport as well as a section of the runway.
Here's video filmed showing #Aleppo International Airport in the distance -- showing multiple successive explosions.



Reports now coming in of possible airstrikes in #Latakia too.
*Highly* unusual to see #Aleppo International Airport targeted, or the Neirab Airbase next-door -- it speaks volumes about #Israel's perceived need to respond to #Iran's activities in #Syria.

Note -- #Israel hit #IRGC shipments at #Damascus International Airport in June.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 30
ICYMI -- for the 1st time since 2011, #Idlib's Christian community gathered on Sunday at the Church of St. Anna in al-Yacoubiya, near Jisr al-Shughour, #Idlib to celebrate the Orthodox St. Anna's Day.

#HTS leader Jolani met with the Church's Bishop Luay al-Bisharat in July. ImageImageImage
Since #Jolani's visit to al-Yacoubiya in July, rumors have swirled around #HTS's agenda for #Idlib's Christian minority.

There are reports that #HTS has communicated with Syrian Christians in #Germany, inviting residents/property owners to return & re-assume property ownership.
Until now, no discernible 'return' has been noted in al-Yacoubiya & nearby al-Jadida & al-Quniya -- but some say Sunday's celebration at St. Anna's was a "confidence building measure" (i.e. a test).

Bishop Bisharat has suggested more announcements may be forthcoming.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 1
Wow -- #Zawahiri killed in a U.S. drone strike in the #Kabul area over the weekend -- the 1st strike since the #Taliban's takeover of #Afghanistan in August 2021.

BIG blow for #AlQaeda's central leadership, but huge questions about how he was located (or who sold him out).
In Nov 2020, I wrote about #AlQaeda's looming "succession crisis" -- as the group's most likely No.2 (Sayf al-Adel) is based in #Iran, a location that for most AQ affiliates, has resulted in deep distrust.

jihadica.com/al-qaedas-lead…

AQ's decentralization will only increase now.
For years, #AlQaeda has been under a self-reinforcing process of decentralization (& localization) -- whereby the central leadership remained a key guide, but an increasingly irrelevant source of strategic command.

More on that, in this lengthy piece:

hudson.org/research/15533…
Read 14 tweets
Jun 8
"I've been asking a simple, but important question.. What is the administration's strategy on #Syria?" -- @SenatorMenendez

"I remain concerned this administration has accepted #Assad's rule as a foregone conclusion." -- @SenatorRisch

SFRC hearing, now.
@SenatorMenendez @SenatorRisch "I was shocked to see Bashar al-#Assad welcomed as any other Head of State by the #UAE."

- @SafiraLeaf, Assistant Secretary of State for #MiddleEast.
@SenatorMenendez @SenatorRisch @SafiraLeaf "I will make the #Syria crisis & applying pressure on the #Assad regime, a priority in the administration."

- @SafiraLeaf, Assistant Secretary of State for #MiddleEast.
Read 9 tweets
May 10
"The Age of Political Jihadism"

- This is an excellent in-depth look at #HTS by @azelin, a group that's changed markedly over the past 5-7yrs & represents an entirely different challenge than its #AlQaeda-aligned predecessor.

washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
@azelin I've been studying #HTS (& JFS & Nusra before it) closely for 11yrs & as @azelin makes clear, it's existed in its current form for longer than its previous, #AlQaeda-aligned Nusra days.

That evolution dates back to at least early-2015, when I wrote this:

huffpost.com/entry/an-inter…
@azelin For an #AlQaeda affiliate born out of #ISIS to become a de facto governing entity that maintains ties to nation states & cooperates with INGOs is no insignificant thing.

Within its NW zone, #HTS has arguably been the most successful anti-#ISIS & AQ actor in #Syria -- but...
Read 5 tweets
May 6
By all accounts, the NRF have launched a major offensive against the #Taliban across #Panjshir today -- taking multiple districts.

No doubt the #Taliban can respond in force, but it's yet another sign (beyond #ISKP) that #Afghanistan's new rulers are far from unchallenged.
NEW - x7 rockets fired into #Tajikistan from #Afghanistan.

In one month, #Pakistan, #Uzbekistan & #Tajikistan have all been hit by cross-border attacks, and #Iran affected by border clashes.

Tajik incident comes amid NRF (long associated with #Dushanbe) offensive in #Panjshir.
#ISKP have claimed today’s cross-border rocket attack on #Tajikistan.

This comes weeks after a similar volley was fired into #Uzbekistan & amid #TTP cross-border attacks into #Pakistan & clashes along the #Iran border.

#Taliban coming under mounting pressure.
Read 4 tweets

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