Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 3 36 tweets 23 min read
Thread: 3 September 2022: Day 192 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine's "offensive operations" around #Russian-occupied Kherson advance "on a broad front". The operation has "limited immediate objectives", but exploits Russia's weaknesses, and forces Moscow into a choice over deployment of its stretched forces.
Essentially an "Honest Trailers" version of a Russian recruitment video.
As part of #Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson, a Bayraktar drone has destroyed a #Russian tank.
The work of @Kama_Kamilia and the #NAFO Fellas has been extraordinary.
Horrible video from Spain, where a Russian sporting symbols supporting the war on Ukraine calls a Ukrainian refugee woman "Khokhol" (an ethnic slur) and a "Ukronazi".
Every dollar given to @SignMyRocket goes to the best cause
"President Erdogan stated that #Turkey can play a facilitator role in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, as they did in the grain deal," said a statement from Erdogan's office, another pointless "mediation" effort with #Russia. rferl.org/a/ukraine-zapo…
Doesn't seem so controversial any more to say the "Wagner Group" is simply a component of #Russia's state security apparatus, but @Ayei_Eloheichem got there when it was rather more contested.
This is much better from the #US, beginning to transfer the lessons from #Ukraine resisting #Russia to what #Taiwan needs to (hopefully deter and if necessary) hold off #China.
Curious: #Iran-origin weapons showing up among #Ukraine's stocks.
Credit to Macron where it's due >> "#France to restart all nuclear reactors by winter amid energy crunch" france24.com/en/france/2022…
#Russian blogger/YouTuber Semyon Pegov ("WarGonzo") arrested in Moscow, it seems for being drunk and disorderly at a hotel; over-aggressive with the lady working the night desk. Some suggestions, though, the Kremlin was not happy with him for OPSEC reasons about his "reporting".
#Russia's Defence Ministry has published a draft decree that would give plots of land in #Crimea and in the Moscow region to the military veterans and others who get state awards for their role in the "special military operation" in #Ukraine. ru.krymr.com/a/news-minobor…
#Germany's former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder told Spain's ABC newspaper #Ukraine retaking #Crimea "makes no sense". Schroeder says he thinks the Russian invasion was a "mistake", but does not see "any good" in him distancing himself from #Putin. A complete disgrace.
Curious bit of history about the #Ottoman Empire's relations with #Ukraine at the end of the Great War.
Can't even get the news from taxi drivers in Russia, SMH
Ivan Neparatov, a literal gangster and murderer that #Russia's government plucked out of prison to assist in its attempt to eradicate #Ukraine, was given a state award "for courage". He is at least dead, another act of justice delivered by Ukraine.
#Russia's air defences seem likely to play as successful a role in #Kherson as they have played elsewhere.
Ukraine-bound grain ship's engine fails in Bosphorus, second incident this week reuters.com/markets/commod…
#Russia is taking advantage of #Ukraine's "operational silence" around its counter-offensive in Kherson to push nonsense about high Ukrainian casualties and other apparent disasters. This is likely to continue. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
There is something of a role reversal in this: for domestic political reasons, rather than operational ones, #Russia was relatively quite during the drive on Kiev in Feb.-March, which meant #Ukraine got control of the narrative, as well as the battlefield.
#Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced he is taking an "indefinite and long" break.

Can see three options:

1) Ramzan is retiring; weird, and weirder timing
2) Ramzan wants something from Putin
3) Ramzan just says crazy things rferl.org/a/chechnya-kad…
#Ukraine seems to have collapsed the Nova Kakhovka dam bridge in #Russian-occupied Kherson with the HIMARS strikes.
Unsurprising, #Russia is activating its political warfare in #Europe.
#Russia now accusing #Romania of being behind its problems in #Ukraine. Real strong look, there.
Awful: thousands protest in the #Czech Republic against support for #Ukraine, calling for buying gas from #Russia, dismissing their own government, and ceasing to the acceptance of Ukrainian refugees.
Confirmation of what should have been obvious: #Ukraine has begun a campaign in Kherson intended to attrite the #Russians over months, not days. This is not a blitzkrieg, and is not well-suited to a modern attention span and Twitter-brain "takes".
Footage shows military priests overseeing #Russia's forces in the Central Military District. The Russian Orthodox clerics like Roman Chebonenko are reportedly "constantly" with troops to help their morale: leading prayers, distributing crosses, and blessing military equipment.
#Ukraine has spelled out the nature of its counter-offensive

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More from @KyleWOrton

Sep 5
Thread: 5 September 2022: Day 194 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's "main effort in #Ukraine almost certainly remains its Donbas offensive", rather than reinforcing against the counter-offensive in Kherson. Moscow has had "the most success" in Donetsk recently, but it is still advancing only 0.5 miles per week. Image
Horseshoe theory in action: "Progressive International" leader supporting the nationalist protests in #Czechia and their #Russia-friendly demands to cease support to #Ukraine and restore economic relations with Moscow. Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 4
Thread: 4 September 2022: Day 193 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia continues to suffer "combat fatigue and high casualties" in #Ukraine, leading to low morale and "discipline issues". Problems with pay is a big issue for the Russian Army, as well as lacking basics like food, arms, and even uniforms. Image
Great map by @bradyafr of #Ukraine's use of HIMARS to ravage #Russia's logistics system.
Read 28 tweets
Sep 3
Very interesting: Photograph surfaces from #Iran showing three of #Al_Qaeda's most important leaders: Sayf al-Adel, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, and Abu al-Khayr al-Masri. Picture must be from before 2015, when Abu al-Khayr left for Syria. Doesn't look much like house arrest, does it? ImageImage
#pt: From 2018: "Examining Iran's Long Relationship with Al-Qaeda" kyleorton.co.uk/2018/10/26/exa…
#pt: #Al_Qaeda leader Abdullah Rajab Abdurrahman (Abu al-Khayr al-Masri) allegedly worked on fissile material while he was in #Iran. After Abu al-Khayr left in 2015, he went to #Syria, where, in 2017, he became the first kill of the US R9X ("ninja bomb"). kyleorton.co.uk/2017/02/27/al-…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22
Thread: 22 August 2022: Day 180 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update focuses on the problems #Russia is having mobilising and motivating its "auxiliary forces", i.e. the #Ukrainians in the occupied territories like the Donbas. Moscow is trying terror and inducement (money), but the forces remain unreliable for offensives.
Thread on the "Wagner" unit, an instrument of #Russia's state, often wrongly referred to as a "mercenary" outfit.
Read 36 tweets
Aug 21
Thread: 21 August 2022: Day 179 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
To follow up on the assassination of Aleksandr Dugin's daughter last night: the balance of probability for an assassination in Moscow is always the Russian FSB, possibly with the involvement of organised crime, not the Ukrainian SBU.
#pt: It is not *impossible* to construct a motive for the Ukrainian SBU trying to assassinate Dugin, but the SBU knows what apparently most Westerners do not: that Dugin is not a domestic power player, politically or ideologically, in the Kremlin.
Read 20 tweets
Aug 20
Thread: 20 August 2022: Day 178 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "only minimal changes" along the front line in the Donbas over "the last week", after some minor #Russian advances in early August. #Ukraine moving on Kherson, increasingly frequent strikes behind the lines in the south are "stressing Russian logistics".
Credit to #France's President Macron for this: strongly preparing the French population for a rough winter, necessary to defend their security and values.
Read 38 tweets

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