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Sep 22 • 63 tweets • 36 min read
Thread: 22 September 2022: Day 211 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: focuses on the announced #Russian "partial mobilisation" yesterday, doubts Moscow can raise 300,000 troops, and notes the "considerable political risk" to #Putin of trying to regenerate manpower for the war on #Ukraine in this way.
Hmm
Seems #Turkey was involved, along with the #Saudis, in mediating for #Ukraine with #Russia to free the prisoners of war taken from Azovstal and elsewhere yesterday.
Not a massively encouraging sign for #Russia
#Ukrainians are unanimously happy about having their prisoners back, regarding them [correctly] as heroes for the stand they made in Mariupol
By contrast, #Russia's pro-war voices are generally displeased about the prisoner exchange
#Ukraine's HIMARS active in Kherson last night
#NAFO: From Meme to IRL
A rough summary of how "Z" Telegram has taken the prisoner exchange
Good signs Europe will not be playing #Russia's game over the "annexations" in eastern #Ukraine.
Something to watch
#Ukraine promising that if Russian soldiers surrender themselves, they will not be exchanged with #Russia if they do not want to go back. Kiev rubbing it in.
The #EU has agreed an 8th round of sanctions against #Russia and sending more weapons to #Ukraine. reuters.com/world/europe/e…
One of the genuinely encouraging things since this all began is that it turned out, when pressed, our people really believed all the things we say we stand for, and have consistently dragged our leaders into doing more and better.
#pt
#US Secretary of State Blinken thanks #Ukraine for the grain donations to alleviate suffering in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
Thread of #Russian reactions to the prisoner exchange
In at least three police stations in Moscow yesterday, arrested protesters were served with orders to appear at enlistment centres for the #Russian Army.
#Estonia has expelled Andrey Sushchev as a "Kremlin provocateur", reiterates that any foreigner who enters the country "is required to observe [the] constitutional order" and will be removed if they do not.
#Russia: The recruitment office of the military commissariat in Nizhny Novgorod was firebombed last night. Reservists have apparently been banned from leaving the city. nn.ru/text/incidents…
What an awful business.
In this sense there are ghosts of 1937 in the Putin system: literally nobody is safe, no matter how fervently they support the leader
More reports that #Russian anti-war protesters are being sentenced to join the Army and fight in #Ukraine.
Good that they are being serious about this and messaging it
#pt
*for those who survive
#Russian media showing a "polling station" at a gymnasium in Donetsk for the "referendum" tomorrow. tvzvezda.ru/news/202292215…
An IT specialist in #Russia explains being summoned to serve in the Army, despite having never had anything to do with the military, and not being involved in any criminal matter.

Russia not exactly sending its Best in this "partial mobilisation"
Looking back at Russia's first mobilisation, for the Great War in 1914, it's notable that partial mobilisation is quite difficult to sustain, logistically and bureaucratically. kyleorton.co.uk/2021/12/15/rus…

Some reporting already suggesting Putin is finding that this time.
The @WashingtonPost interviewed @ItsBorys and others about the @SaintJavelin phenomenon, a meme that came to life, assisting #Ukraine in resisting the #Russian invasion, first the drone program and at present buying winter clothes for soldiers.

Full clip:
"What started off as a highly-niche online joke on weapons group chats has become a global brand." @PLBarghouty writes for The @WashingtonPost about the development of @SaintJavelin. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/…
Just doing absolutely nothing for stereotypes
#Ukraine's President Zelensky reaching out to #Russians over the heads of the government.
Grotesque nonsense from #Hungary's state media
Another indicator that this is not a "partial" mobilisation in #Russia.
#pt
It has been well-known for some time #Russia is disproportionately using people from Buryatia and Dagestan in the war on #Ukraine; the mobilisation seems no different. Then comes the issue of composing these ethnic furrows within the Army structure.
Good thread. The numbers matter only to the extent they make all of the problems with #Russia's mobilisation even larger.
Another recruitment torched in #Russia, this one in Moscow
This theme has come up quite a lot: #Russians were willing to be spectators - and tell the pollsters they were supporters - of the wars abroad, but they never signed-up to this pact to be participants.
Many #Russians trying to cross the border to #Georgia after mobilisation was announced
#Iran's Shahed-136 drones seen in use by #Russia
#pt: Ukrainians are currently raising funds to counter the Iranian drones Russia has deployed.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky spoke to the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 21, in English, laying out a peace formula for dealing with #Russia, namely the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty, and called for UN to punish Moscow. instagram.com/reel/CiyUr19Dx…
The Buryats have really had a heavy toll imposed on them the last seven months.
#Putin's warlord-president down in #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, says there will be no mobilisation in his fiefdom since the area has already "overfulfilled" its quota, sending 254% of what was planned. (What plan is not specified.) kavkazr.com/a/v-chechne-mo…
One of #Ukraine's soldiers freed from #Russia, Pashko Lev Valeriyovych, reunited with his wife.
Alexei Milchakov from the Nazi "Rusich" unit associated with "Wagner" gives horrifying instructions for how #Russia should torture and murder #Ukrainian captives, ensuring all collaborate in this, then extort families (via bitcoin) to find the gravesite.
This is no time to be giving the senior criminals in #China's government facetime ...
Thread on #Russia's mobilisation, a most dangerous decision for #Putin, who has now linked his war on #Ukraine to threatening the lives of people's husbands, fathers, and brothers - and thus provided a rallying point against the regime.
The grisly details of #Izyum under #Russia's occupation begin filtering out.
#Israel set to give #China - a close strategic ally of #Russia and #Iran - its first free trade agreement in the Middle East, a serious misstep.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky spoke about the release of 215 Ukrainians, exchanged with #Russia for 55 POWs that Kiev held. Zelensky celebrates those freed as heroes, understandably: they were responsible for defending Mariupol for months under siege.
instagram.com/reel/Ciycum5IP…
One of several reports that #Russia is seeking to mobilise around one million people - not the announced 300,000. If true, the problem is not really for #Ukraine. This mobilisation has already been mismanaged; making it larger just makes this worse.
Incredible messaging work from #Ukraine (again).
Life comes at you quickly ...
#Russia's Major General Oleg Tsokov, the commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army, has been seriously injured in a #Ukrainian strike against a Russian headquarters in Svatove in the Luhansk Oblast.
More evidence of the total centralisation of #Russia's Army: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said" edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/pol…
Dutch television is campaigning for #Russia to be "returned" to the #Netherlands
#Britain's Prime Minister Liz Truss commits at the UNGA meeting to pressing ahead with support to #Ukraine.
In #Russia, students in Buryatia have been marched out of their university to be conscripted for the war on #Ukraine. The Buryats have been notoriously over-represented in the Russian Army.
"The United States for several months has been sending private communications to Moscow warning Russia’s leadership of the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon". A decision has been made to be "deliberately vague". washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

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More from @KyleWOrton

Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 21
Thread: 21 September 2022: Day 210 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
The former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute, Anatoly Gerashchenko, had a "tragic accident" on Sept. 21, he "fell" - indeed, "flew" - down several flights of stairs and "received injuries incompatible with life". moscow-post.su/news/society/b…
#Putin's delayed speech, delivered this morning, rambled through the war being necessary to stop #Ukraine having nukes, #NATO running Kiev's army and refusing peace, Novorossiya, neo-Nazis, and annexing the Donbas, to announce partial mobilisation.
Read 51 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 20
Thread: 20 September 2022: Day 209 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russia "officially" preparing to "annex" the Donbas in eastern #Ukraine.

Should be noted, the Russians had such plans in Kherson and Kharkiv, which were derailed by the Ukrainian guerrillas before the Army liberated Kharkiv.
Imprisoned #Russian oppositionist Alexey Navalny comments on that video of Yevgeny Prigozhin recruiting prisoners for the war on #Ukraine. Sees it as a clear sign of the disintegration of the Army and notes such recruits can only make it worse.
Read 53 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 19
Thread: 19 September 2022: Day 208 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "#Russia has highly likely lost at least four combat jets in #Ukraine within the last 10 days", a total of 55 since the invasion began. A "realistic possibility" this is because Moscow has stepped up airstrikes, and still lacks air dominance. Image
The "refusenik" problem within the #Russian Army is clearly at an operationally significant level.
Read 36 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 19
The final journey of Her Majesty Elizabeth II, by the Grace of God, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and of Her other Realms and Territories, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith. Image
The Canadian Mounties leading the military contingent from the Dominions in the funeral procession for Queen Elizabeth II. Image
An appropriately grand spectacle for the final journey of the anointed of God. Image
Read 4 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 15
Thread: 15 September 2022: Day 204 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russian soldier talking to his wife is somewhat unimpressed with the commanders and even less impressed with the #Chechen Kadyrovtsy, the "Akhmat", who "fucked off (i.e. ran away), the fucking cowards" as the #Ukrainians closed in.
In #Mariupol overnight, #Ukrainians sang the national anthem in Liberation Square, knowing it can get them arrested and worse by the #Russian occupation authorities in the city. A sense that liberation is coming is spreading.
Read 45 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 14
Thread: 14 September 2022: Day 203 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update notes the confirmation that #Russia is using #Iran's Shahed-136 drones, which have a range of 1,500 miles and were used in the attack on the MT MERCER STREET merchant tanker on 3 July 2021. Seems Moscow is using them for tactical strikes, not long-range.
Talk in #Georgia of opening a second front while #Russia is tied down in #Ukraine to liberate the occupied areas in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

If you want to challenge for Russian-protected territories, now is the moment. (See also: #Azerbaijan.)
Read 59 tweets

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