#IranProtests significantly expanded in size and scale on October 8 as anti-regime demonstrations entered their twenty-second consecutive day. #مهسا_امینی#اعتراضات_سراسری
Anti-regime protests were documented in at least 25 different #Iranian cities and 19 provinces, marking one of the most significant days of #protest activity since demonstrations began on September 16.
A wide range of #Iranians participated in protests on October 8, including marginalized minorities, merchants, students, and the urban elite. Ongoing demonstrations are posing a serious and increasing threat to the regime.
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#Ukrainian forces continued to advance east of the #Oskil River in the direction of #Luhansk Oblast and have entered #Stel’makhivka. Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on #Burdaka on the #Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border, and #Terny northeast of #Lyman.
#Russian sources reported that Russian forces attempted to attack in the direction of #Ternovi Pody. #Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to target newly liberated settlements in northern #Kherson Oblast with artillery, MLRS, and aviation.
Iranian leadership may have ordered the IRGC Ground Forces to support the protest crackdown directly. The IRGC Ground Forces would likely use extreme force. Its deployment would indicate that the regime is alarmed by the protests and considers them a serious security threat. 2/4
Iran has built a multilayered security apparatus of different military and paramilitary institutions to impose social control. The IRGC Ground Forces is the regime’s last line of defense against internal unrest and the most prominent security layer after the LEC and Basij. 3/4
Salafi-jihadi groups linked to #alQaeda and the #IslamicState have exploited cyclical violence and anti-government grievances to root themselves in local communities and steadily expand in the Sahel over the past decade. 2/5
The fallout from the Burkina Faso coup, like the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali, will likely further reduce counterterrorism pressure and worsen the conditions that lead to Salafi-jihadi expansion. 3/5
NEW | Increasing domestic critiques of #Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in #Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into #Luhansk Oblast.
#Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern #Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.