Crisis Group Profile picture
Jan 2, 2023 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
2022 was a year of horrible bloodshed for many countries.

For 2023, we compiled a list of 10 conflicts to watch – in partnership with @ForeignPolicy.

🧵 [1/12]
crisisgroup.org/global/10-conf…
1️⃣ #Ukraine 🇺🇦

After nearly a year of fighting, there is no end in sight for the war in Ukraine.

The West should continue its balancing act of backing Kyiv while avoiding a direct clash with Russia and keeping the door open to negotiations.
2️⃣ #NagornoKarabakh 🇦🇲- 🇦🇿

Neither Russian nor Western-sponsored talks have brought the sides closer to a sustainable agreement and clashes have continued.

The failure of talks could well result in renewed war.
3️⃣ #Iran 🇮🇷

Protests have rocked Iran for months and the regime has killed hundreds with its brutal response.

Meanwhile, another crisis looms, with talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal in a deep freeze.
4️⃣ #Yemen 🇾🇪

The war in Yemen is in uncomfortable limbo after a truce between the Huthi rebels and the internationally recognised government lapsed in October.

There is serious cause for concern as both sides are preparing for renewed fighting.
5️⃣ #Ethiopia 🇪🇹

The war in Tigray has halted with the signing of two agreements. But with key questions unresolved, plenty could go wrong.

Vigilance is needed to stop one of 2022’s deadliest wars from reigniting.
6️⃣ Great Lakes / #DRCongo 🇨🇩

The #M23 rebels have re-emerged to wreak havoc in the eastern DRC.

Kinshasa blames neighbouring #Rwanda.

An East African mission led by #Kenya is trying to restore calm, but if it fails, the DRC could become the centre of a proxy war.
7️⃣ #Sahel 🇧🇫🇲🇱🇳🇪

Governments in #BurkinaFaso, #Mali and #Niger are struggling to contain Islamist insurgencies.

Anti-western sentiment is spreading while a new key regional player, Russia, sows tensions between Sahelian governments and Western capitals.
8️⃣ #Haiti 🇭🇹

Since President Jovenel Moïse was murdered in July 2021, Haiti has been paralysed by political gridlock and rampant gang violence.

Services have collapsed and cholera is spreading.

Haiti needs help and foreign troops may be its last best hope.
9️⃣ #Pakistan 🇵🇰

Pakistan is facing a severe political crisis, as witnessed by sporadic eruptions of violence & an assassination attempt on former PM Imran Khan.

In addition, Pakistan must contend with devastating floods, a struggling economy & resurgent Islamist militancy.
🔟 #Taiwan

The biggest flashpoint between the U.S. and China – Taiwan – looks increasingly unstable.

War is unlikely any time soon.

But the global effects of a Taiwan conflict would dwarf the Ukraine war’s fallout, so any change in risk, however slight, is worth watching.
Read more on each entry, as well as the overview about the state of the world by @EroComfort and @atwoodr.
crisisgroup.org/global/10-conf…

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More from @CrisisGroup

Nov 3, 2023
Over 400,000 migrants bound for the U.S. are expected to cross the Darién Gap, an inhospitable jungle controlled by one of Colombia’s most powerful cartels.

They risk theft, extortion, rape and even death.

A broad regional effort is needed to change this situation.🧵: 1/11 Image
Severe economic and security crises in countries like Venezuela and Ecuador have driven families out.

The Darién affords possibilities that other routes do not: its borders are porous, controls are poorly enforced, and many locals offer their services as guides. Image
Our latest research shows just the extent to which the journey from Colombia to Panama is riddled with danger.

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Jun 5, 2023
Our research on the links between climate, environment and conflict in #Somalia focuses on the impact of the devastating drought, compounded by conflict and Al-Shabaab’s harsh policies, on the displacement of millions.

🧵 for #WorldEnvironmentDay.
Deforestation in Somalia for wood burning and charcoal production leads to catastrophic consequences.

It exacerbates the effects of drought and floods and provides funding opportunities to the militant group Al-Shabaab.
According to @UNEP, deforestation threatens drought-tolerant trees like the Acacia.

For @HodderClimate, the regeneration of the environment is important for soil health and also to ease tensions over natural resource competition and reduce displacements.
unep.org/news-and-stori…
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Jun 5, 2023
New Update | CrisisWatch

⚡ Four conflict risks in June

↘️ Twelve conflict deteriorations in May

❗ Country in focus: #Pakistan 🇵🇰

1/x
crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch
⚡ Conflict Risk Alert | #Sudan

Hostilities escalated between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, notably in Darfur region, where the growing involvement of tribal militias and armed groups threatens all-out civil war.
⚡ Conflict Risk Alert | #Somaliland

Fighting between government forces and Dhulbahante clan militias spread in the Sool region.

As parties recruit new fighters, the conflict could ripple into other parts of Somaliland.
crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
Read 15 tweets
May 15, 2023
The Spring update of @CrisisGroup's European Union Watch List is here.

Read on for recommendations from our analysts around the globe on how the EU can enhance prospects for peace in the #Sahel, #Kosovo and #Serbia, #Pakistan and #LatinAmerica: crisisgroup.org/global/watch-l…

🧵: 1/11 Image
The report starts with an introduction by @CrisisGroup CEO & President @EroComfort, where she highlights the role the EU can play in #Sudan, particularly by deterring outside actors from getting sucked into the fighting.
crisisgroup.org/global/preside…
.@EroComfort also writes about the EU's current top security priority: backing Ukraine to defend itself.

And even as the EU and member states continue supporting Ukraine, they should signal to Moscow that a path toward a negotiated settlement or ceasefire remains possible.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 6, 2023
In 2022, Russia’s war in Ukraine overshadowed much of global politics and other conflicts exacted a high toll, with the number of people fleeing violence reaching a new high.

But there’s also been good news!

Here are @CrisisGroup's 10 reasons to be hopeful in 2023 ⬇️ Image
1️⃣ The deal between 🇪🇹Ethiopia's government and Tigray leaders could end one of the world’s bloodiest conflicts and offer relief to millions in northern Ethiopia. Plenty could still go wrong, but any lull in the horrific violence is good news.

crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
2️⃣ After 3 years of tension, 🇨🇴 Colombia and 🇻🇪Venezuela finally restored one of Latin America’s most important bilateral relations, providing opportunities to address ongoing security and humanitarian issues at the border.

crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
Read 11 tweets
Dec 1, 2022
After a three-year rupture marked by vitriol, #Colombia and #Venezuela have resumed diplomatic relations.

Our newest report argues that, above all, the détente should generate significant benefits for citizens of both countries.

THREAD [1/6] 🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
Rebuilding trust and redressing bilateral tensions will take time.

Coordination in health, security, trade, consular and other matters is vital to protecting public well-being, especially of #Venezuelan migrants and refugees in #Colombia. [2/6]
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
Negotiations with the #ELN, which restarted on 21 November, will depend to an extent on support from #Venezuela’s government, which is a guarantor and host of the talks but may be reluctant to terminate its partnership with the rebels. [3/6]
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
Read 6 tweets

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