Crisis Group Profile picture
Jan 2, 2023 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
2022 was a year of horrible bloodshed for many countries.

For 2023, we compiled a list of 10 conflicts to watch – in partnership with @ForeignPolicy.

🧵 [1/12]
crisisgroup.org/global/10-conf…
1️⃣ #Ukraine 🇺🇦

After nearly a year of fighting, there is no end in sight for the war in Ukraine.

The West should continue its balancing act of backing Kyiv while avoiding a direct clash with Russia and keeping the door open to negotiations.
2️⃣ #NagornoKarabakh 🇦🇲- 🇦🇿

Neither Russian nor Western-sponsored talks have brought the sides closer to a sustainable agreement and clashes have continued.

The failure of talks could well result in renewed war.
3️⃣ #Iran 🇮🇷

Protests have rocked Iran for months and the regime has killed hundreds with its brutal response.

Meanwhile, another crisis looms, with talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal in a deep freeze.
4️⃣ #Yemen 🇾🇪

The war in Yemen is in uncomfortable limbo after a truce between the Huthi rebels and the internationally recognised government lapsed in October.

There is serious cause for concern as both sides are preparing for renewed fighting.
5️⃣ #Ethiopia 🇪🇹

The war in Tigray has halted with the signing of two agreements. But with key questions unresolved, plenty could go wrong.

Vigilance is needed to stop one of 2022’s deadliest wars from reigniting.
6️⃣ Great Lakes / #DRCongo 🇨🇩

The #M23 rebels have re-emerged to wreak havoc in the eastern DRC.

Kinshasa blames neighbouring #Rwanda.

An East African mission led by #Kenya is trying to restore calm, but if it fails, the DRC could become the centre of a proxy war.
7️⃣ #Sahel 🇧🇫🇲🇱🇳🇪

Governments in #BurkinaFaso, #Mali and #Niger are struggling to contain Islamist insurgencies.

Anti-western sentiment is spreading while a new key regional player, Russia, sows tensions between Sahelian governments and Western capitals.
8️⃣ #Haiti 🇭🇹

Since President Jovenel Moïse was murdered in July 2021, Haiti has been paralysed by political gridlock and rampant gang violence.

Services have collapsed and cholera is spreading.

Haiti needs help and foreign troops may be its last best hope.
9️⃣ #Pakistan 🇵🇰

Pakistan is facing a severe political crisis, as witnessed by sporadic eruptions of violence & an assassination attempt on former PM Imran Khan.

In addition, Pakistan must contend with devastating floods, a struggling economy & resurgent Islamist militancy.
🔟 #Taiwan

The biggest flashpoint between the U.S. and China – Taiwan – looks increasingly unstable.

War is unlikely any time soon.

But the global effects of a Taiwan conflict would dwarf the Ukraine war’s fallout, so any change in risk, however slight, is worth watching.
Read more on each entry, as well as the overview about the state of the world by @EroComfort and @atwoodr.
crisisgroup.org/global/10-conf…

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More from @CrisisGroup

Apr 10
In our new report, ‘Stopping Famine in Gaza’, we provide granular data through mapping and satellite imagery on the extent of the damage and destruction and the severity of the food insecurity crisis.

Our key findings: 1/9
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A broad regional effort is needed to change this situation.🧵: 1/11 Image
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Our research on the links between climate, environment and conflict in #Somalia focuses on the impact of the devastating drought, compounded by conflict and Al-Shabaab’s harsh policies, on the displacement of millions.

🧵 for #WorldEnvironmentDay.
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It exacerbates the effects of drought and floods and provides funding opportunities to the militant group Al-Shabaab.
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unep.org/news-and-stori…
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Jun 5, 2023
New Update | CrisisWatch

⚡ Four conflict risks in June

↘️ Twelve conflict deteriorations in May

❗ Country in focus: #Pakistan 🇵🇰

1/x
crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch
⚡ Conflict Risk Alert | #Sudan

Hostilities escalated between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, notably in Darfur region, where the growing involvement of tribal militias and armed groups threatens all-out civil war.
⚡ Conflict Risk Alert | #Somaliland

Fighting between government forces and Dhulbahante clan militias spread in the Sool region.

As parties recruit new fighters, the conflict could ripple into other parts of Somaliland.
crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
Read 15 tweets
May 15, 2023
The Spring update of @CrisisGroup's European Union Watch List is here.

Read on for recommendations from our analysts around the globe on how the EU can enhance prospects for peace in the #Sahel, #Kosovo and #Serbia, #Pakistan and #LatinAmerica: crisisgroup.org/global/watch-l…

🧵: 1/11 Image
The report starts with an introduction by @CrisisGroup CEO & President @EroComfort, where she highlights the role the EU can play in #Sudan, particularly by deterring outside actors from getting sucked into the fighting.
crisisgroup.org/global/preside…
.@EroComfort also writes about the EU's current top security priority: backing Ukraine to defend itself.

And even as the EU and member states continue supporting Ukraine, they should signal to Moscow that a path toward a negotiated settlement or ceasefire remains possible.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 6, 2023
In 2022, Russia’s war in Ukraine overshadowed much of global politics and other conflicts exacted a high toll, with the number of people fleeing violence reaching a new high.

But there’s also been good news!

Here are @CrisisGroup's 10 reasons to be hopeful in 2023 ⬇️ Image
1️⃣ The deal between 🇪🇹Ethiopia's government and Tigray leaders could end one of the world’s bloodiest conflicts and offer relief to millions in northern Ethiopia. Plenty could still go wrong, but any lull in the horrific violence is good news.

crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
2️⃣ After 3 years of tension, 🇨🇴 Colombia and 🇻🇪Venezuela finally restored one of Latin America’s most important bilateral relations, providing opportunities to address ongoing security and humanitarian issues at the border.

crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
Read 11 tweets

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