Thread by @jseldin

Happening now: US Senate's Annual Worldwide Threats with:

@ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines
@CIA Dir William Burns
@DefenseIntel Dir LtGen Scott Berrier
@CYBERCOM_DIRNSA Gen Paul Nakasone
@FBI Dir Christopher Wray
intelligence.senate.gov/hearings/open-…

"We are increasingly seeing rising competition in the technology space with authoritarian regimes that are challenging democratic norms at home & around the world," per Senate Intel Committee chair @MarkWarner

#China's communist party "is now a near-peer competitor with the United States in its economy, technology & military capabilities" per @MarkWarner

"Today you will undoubtedly be asked about the IC’s assessments on the origins of #COVID19" per @MarkWarner

"It is entirely fair for us to ask whether the virus that has killed 6.8 million people – so far – might have been accidentally released from a lab in #Wuhan"

#Russia-#Ukraine: "I hope that we will hear from the IC assessment the trajectory of this bloody conflict, what we think the end game will be, while preserving Ukraine’s indisputable right to exist as a sovereign nation" per @MarkWarner

Warning from @MarkWarner to US intel leaders: "We still have unfinished business regarding the classified documents that we need to see in order for this Intelligence Committee to effectively oversee its job on intelligence oversights"

"It's clear there's not going to be any convergence of values. It's clear that globalization led to the rise of #China" per Senate Intel Committee Vice Chair @marcorubio

"But it also deindustrialized America, created long & vulnerable supply chains"

"Threats - there are no shortages of them: #China #Russia #Iran #NorthKorea global terrorism, narco terrorists operating just off, across our border"
per @marcorubio

"The greatest threat facing America is not another country. It is whether or not we have the ability & the willingness to adequately asses & appropriately adapt our foreign & domestic policies" per @marcorubio

"We've relied on our power advantages & we've forgotten what its like to live in a world with near-peer competitors" per @marcorubio

The annual worldwide threats report is live:

"The United States & its allies will confront a complex & pivotal int'lsecurity environment dominated by 2 critical strategic challenges that intersect w/each other & existing trends to intensify their nat'l security implications"

"Great powers, rising regional powers, as well as an evolving array of non-state actors, will vie for dominance" per the report "Shared global challenges, including climate change, & human and health security, are converging..."
dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…

"The Peoples republic of #China, which is increasingly challenging the #UnitedStates economically, technologically, politically, & militarily around the world remains our unparalleled challenge" per @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

#China "will continue efforts to achieve [President] Xi's vision of making China the preeminent power in East Asia & a major power on the world stage" per DNI Haines

"The CCP is increasingly convinced that it can only do so [achieve Xi's vision] at the expense of US power and influence" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"We assess that during the course of #Xi's 3rd term they will together attempt to press #Taiwan on unification, undercut US influce, which they perceive as a threat, & drive wedges between the US & its partners" per @ODNIgov's Haines on #China

.@ODNIgov assesses recent speeches by #Chia's Xi reflects "growing pessimism" abut relations with the US, per DNI Haines

BUT US also assesses "#Beijing believes it benefits most from prevent a spiraling of tensions & preserving stability in its relationship w/the UnitedStates"

President #Xi "wants a period of relative calm to give #China the time & stability it needs to address growing domestic difficulties" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#China's domestic economic development "not assured" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"China's long-term economic growth will continue to decelerate bcs China's era of rapid, catch-up growth is ending..."

#China now "our most serious & consequential intelligence rival" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Haines also warns of China's "deepening collaboration w/#Russia"

#Russia-#Ukraine: "On the battlefield there is currently a grinding, attritional war in which neither side has a definitive military advantage" per @ODNIgov's Haines

'The day-to-day fighting is over hundreds of meters currently focused largely in #Donetsk ..."

"The #Russia|ns are making incremental progress in #Bakhmut is which is a particularly strategic objective but are otherwise facing considerable constraints, including personnel & ammunition shortages... morale challeneges" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Russia "suffering high casualty rates" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"Putin is likely better understanding the limits of what his military is capable of achieving & appears to be focused on more modest military objectives for now"

"If #Russia doe snot institute a mandatory mobilization & identify substantial 3rd part ammunition supplies it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even the current level of offensive operations...." per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Russia "may fully shift to holding and defending the terroritory they currently occupy" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"We don't see the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains"

Despite problems, "#Putin most likely calculates that time works in his favor & that prolonging the war, including w/potential pauses int he fighting, may be his best remaining pathway...eve if it takes years" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Ukraine facing challenges-"The extent to which Ukrainian forces having to draw their their reserves & equipment, as well as suffer further casualties, will all likely factor into Ukraine's ability to go on the offensive later this spring" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Russia's nuclear saber rattling: "Out analysts assess his current posture is intended to deter the West from providing additional support to #Ukraine" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Russia's #Putin "will still remain confident that Russia can eventually militarily defeat #Ukraine & wants to prevent Western support from tipping the balance & forcing a conflict w/@NATO" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"#Russia & its proxy groups are almost certainly using filtration operations to detain & forcibly deport tens of thousands of #Ukrainian civilian to #Russia" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Bcs of the war, "#Moscow has suffered losses that will require years of rebuilding & leave it less capable of posing a conventional military threat to #Europe & operating assertively in #Eurasia & on the global stage" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"#Russia will become even more reliant on asymmetric options such as #nuclear, #cyber, #space capabilities - and on #China" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Iran - "no longer constrained by #JCPOA limits & has undertaken research & development activities that would bring it closer to producing the fissile material necessary for completing a nuclear device following a decision to do so" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#NorthKorea "a proliferation concern as it continues it efforts to steadily expand & enhance its nuclear & conventional capabilities" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"Throughout the world, countries are struggling to maintain democratic systems & prevent the rise of authoritarians, in some cases bcs #Russia & #China are helping autocrats take or hold power" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Threat from tech - "New technologies particularly in the field of AI & biotechnologies are being developed & proliferated faster than companies & gvts are able shape norms governing their use...& prevent dangerous outcomes" per @ODNIgov's Haines

.@ODNIgov's Haines urges lawmakers to reauthorize #FISA Section 702

"Section 702 is relied upon in gathering intelligence that was used to put together this assessment & is hard to overestimate the importance of this authority or our work across the board"

"Technology & economic security have become inextricably intertwined w/nat'l security" per @FBI Dir Christopher Wray

"if you look at what the Chinese are trying to steal-that's where it is"

"Too many of our corporate world still believes that these collaboration inside of #China are benign" per Senate Intel Comm Chair @MarkWarner

"This is an ongoing challenge"

Senate Intel Comm's @marcorubio asks if #China thru #TikTok owner ByteDance, "control data on millions of users"

@FBI's Wray: "Yes"

Rubio: "...control the software on millions of devices..."

Wray: "Yes"

Rubio: "...to drive narratives to divide Americans..."

Wray: "Yes"

"On the last one, in particular, we're not sure we would see many of the outward signs of it" per @FBI's Wray

"I would argue its probably one of the most valuable surveillance tools on the planet" per @marcorubio on #TikTok

"And we've invited them in..."

#COVID19-"The @FBI has long assessed going back t the summer of 2021 that the origin of the pandemic was likely a lab incident in #Wuhan" per Dir Wray

"There's a board consensus in the intelligence community that the outbreak is not the result of a bioweapon or genetic engineering" per @ODNIgov's Haines

But no consensus on whether pandemic started as lab leak or exposure to infected animal

"We've been trying to collect additional information" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Notes #China has not been cooperative

#Afghanistan - "Based on what we know right now from the threat of #alQaida, they're trying t survive basically without a real plan or intent to attack the West anytime soon" per @DefenseIntel chief LtGen Scott Berrier

#ISIS-#Khorasan "poses a bit of a larger threat..."

"But they [#ISIS-#Khorasan] are under attack from the #Taliban regime right now & it's a matter of time before they may have the ability & intent to attack the West" per @DefenseIntel's Berrier

"We do see a challenged #ISIS-K" in #Afghanistan, per @CYBERCOM_DIRNSA, agreeing with @DefenseIntel assessment

.@SenTomCotton takes issue w/US intel assessment that Transnational Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists "continue to pose the most lethal threat to U.S. persons and interests"

"Are you serious?" he asks @ODNIgov's Haines

"You seriously think that Racially & Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists are the most lethal threat that Americans face" @SenTomCotton asks

"Yes, sir" per @ODNIgov Dir Haines "In terms of the number of ppl killed or wounded as a consequence"

.@SenTomCotton says hasn't #fentanyl killed more Americans - over 100,000

DNI Haines replies, Racially & Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists are "not being compared against fentanyl in that statement. It's in the context of terrorist threats"

#China-supply chain threat: "It's not just simply abt China trying to create indigenous supply chains but actually to control global supply chains' per @ODNIgov's Haines

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1633490462345404423?s=20

"You can see it also...not only in their decisions abt what they're purchasing & how they're managing it but also the laws they pass..." per DNI Haines

"... that give them the capability, for example w/rare earth elements, to actually turn the dial on they're export & import policies so they can actually create that pressure" per DNI Haines

#Russia - #China relationship, "It is continuing to deepen" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"There are some limitations on where we see they would go in the partnership-we' don't see them becoming allies they way we are with allies in @NATO"

NEW: #China aid for #Russia in #Ukraine - "We do see them providing assistance to Russia in the context of the conflict" per DNI Haines

"We see them in a situation where they've become increasingly uncomfortable abt the level of assistance & not looking to do it as publicly"

DNI Haines says she can talk more about #China's aid to #Russia during the classified/behind closed doors part of the hearing

#China in #cyberspace-"We see an increasing degree of risk taking that they've undergone in regards to stealing our intellectual property, even increasing heir influence operations" per @CYBERCOM_DIRNSA "These are concerning"

#Russia in #cyberspace: "We still see them & we see them very accurately & being able to warn & being able to counteract some of the things that they're doing around the world" per @CYBERCOM_DIRNSA

"We know them very very well... We still are able to stay ahead of them"

Interesting - @CIA Dir William Burns says #FISA Section 702 "has helped us in some successful actions recently" against the #Sinaloa Cartel & against #Fentanyl production