Thread by @KumarSeshadri

Independent India has always been a vibrant democracy, except for the #Emergency years of #IndiraGandhi from 1975-77. That it has taken a decisive turn to religious majoritarianism under the #BJP and under #Modi since 2014 doesn't change that fact. (1/)

Democracy is not necessarily congruent with liberal values or even human rights. #Slavery was legal both in the democracy of Great Britain as well as the USA for almost a hundred years since the US' formation. Even a White woman was not considered equal to a man in America. (2/)

#Blacks in the #US did not have equal rights even after the abolition of slavery for another 100 years under #Lincoln, but we still think of the US in #1960 as a democracy.

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What has changed in India in the last 40 years is that a nation that united to defeat the #British has now divided on religious lines. The majority of Hindus can no longer tolerate the presence of Muslims. And this majority is growing in numbers and in proportion daily.

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The social fracture is irreparable. Hindus are making clear that Muslims can only live in India henceforth on the terms set by Hindus. Modi and the BJP are popular only because they are decisively fulfilling this aspiration of Hindu supremacy in India.

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This is why despite disasters such as #demonetization, #GST, and the government response to the #secondwave of #COVID19 in 2021, Modi and the BJP remain immensely popular among Hindus.

In the 2014 election, the BJP under Modi won 31% of the popular vote.

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In 2019, that number was 38%.

Hindus comprise 80% of the population of India. Assuming that, because of the Hindu majoritarian policies of the BJP, other communities do not vote for the BJP, this means that the BJP got 39% of the Hindu vote in 2014 and 48% in 2019.

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Modi understands this, and that's why he has been pushing hard on the Hindu agenda. Construction of the grand #RamTemple that is being built on the land acquired by demolishing a 16th century mosque in #Ayodhya is proceeding rapidly and will be completed before 2024.

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Modi also presided over the inauguration of the renovated temple complex in #Kashi (Varanasi) in a glittering religious ceremony with much fanfare which was telecast live on national TV.

Many BJP-ruled stated have passed laws banning the slaughter of cows.

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These, and many more pro-Hindu as well as anti-Muslim policies have so gladdened the hearts of the Hindu majority that I would not be surprised if Modi gets an overall absolute majority in the 2024 general elections on the strength of Hindu votes alone.

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Since Hindus are 80% of India's population, all Modi needs is a 63% majority among Hindus to get a 50% majority among all Indians. Given that he got 48% of the Hindu vote in 2019, this is not inconceivable.

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Already, the BJP doesn't have a single Muslim representative from its party in the Indian Parliament.

If what I have sketched here happens in 2024, the consequences will be tragic for India's Muslims.

But India will still be a democratic country.

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But unfortunately for the BJP, Hindus are not a monolithic group. They are divided by language and caste. The BJP is driven not only by Hindu religious majoritarianism, but also by Hindi linguistic chauvinism: a key slogan of the BJP is "Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan."

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The BJP believes that Hindi should be the national language of India, and that people all over India should speak Hindi. This is not a new idea: in 1947, leaders of the Indian National Congress, the party that brought independence from the British, believed the same.

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Like the INC of 1947, the BJP believes that nationwide adoption of Hindi will lead to national unity and the development of an "Indian" identity. Just like France has French, Germany has German, and Japan has Japanese, the BJP would like India to have "Indian" - viz.,Hindi. (15/)

Hindi is the language spoken by the most people in India, but they don't comprise an absolute majority - only 44% of the population. Language is an extremely polarizing topic in India. There have been many riots in India over the question of language imposition. (16/)

The best-known of these are the anti-Hindi agitations in the southern Tamil-speaking state of Tamil Nadu, but these tensions are present all over India. One example is the unresolved issue of the border districts of Belgaum and Dharwad between Maharashtra and Karnataka. (17/)

Maharashtra is a Marathi-speaking state, and Karnataka is a Kannada-speaking state. That Indians are divided by language became clear as early as 1952, when the demand for a state for Telugu speakers caused the formation of the first linguistic state, Andhra Pradesh.

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This caused a domino effect. Within a decade, there were linguistic states all over India - Tamil Nadu for Tamil speakers, Kerala for Malayalis, West Bengal for Bengalis, and so on.

Both Karnataka and Maharashtra claim the border districts of Belgaum and Dharwad. (19/)

This is because the two districts have a mixed population of Marathi and Kannada speakers. This is a very emotive issue for both states.

Thus the idea that Hindi can be shoved down the throats of non-Hindi speakers as per the agenda is extremely unrealistic.

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But the BJP is completely committed to this ideal.

And soon they will be in a position to bulldoze all opposition to it - thanks to the magic of democracy.

As I explained earlier, democracy has nothing to do with fairness. It has only to do with majorities.

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What has happened is that Hindi speakers have multiplied at a faster rate than the rest of the Indian population. In democratic terms, that means Hindi speakers should have more votes.

But delimitation of Parliamentary constituencies has not been carried out since 1971.

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Delimitation has been postponed again and again, but now it is sure to be done in 2026. When that happens, Hindi speakers will have so many seats that they need not care what non-Hindi speakers feel.

The figure below shows that Hindi speakers will control 61% of seats. (23/)

With such a majority, the BJP can make Hindi compulsory for all Indians after 2026 if they choose to. Union Home Minister #AmitShah has stated publicly several times his view that Hindi should be the language spoken by everyone.

Will such a move work?

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This is a matter of opinion and speculation, but I believe it will irreparably fracture the fragile union that is India.

But India will still be a democratic country - until it ceases to exist and breaks into identity-based pieces.

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Even religion and language are not enough to define a unified identity among Indians. Perhaps the best example of this is the partition of the first linguistic state of India, Andhra Pradesh, into Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

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And we cannot forget that the #Punjabi speaking state of #Punjab was in the grip of a two-decade insurgency when separatists wanted to create an independent #Khalistan in the 1980s. Hindi imposition might rekindle such movements.

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India is a very fragile union of very different cultures. It can only remain united with a spirit of accommodation, of give-and-take. The founding fathers of India understood this and so created a federal secular state. (28/)

The BJP's attempt to change this tolerant and diverse culture of India by force, using the tools of democracy, appears likely to lead India into an irreparable, Balkanized future. It is an open question if India will remain in 20 years. (29/)

India is not France, Germany, Japan, China, or Russia. It is a unique social experiment. And history shows that the Hindu religion was never sufficient to unite the people of this land.

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link.medium.com/rAqQJrn5Czb

Of course, delimitation must be carried out if we are to remain democratic, because today the people of the Hindi Belt are being massively underrepresented in Parliament. One member of Parliament (MP) represents many fold as many citizens as an MP from, say, Tamil Nadu. (31/)

The question is what the MPs of the Hindi belt will do when they have this majority in Parliament and, with that majority, the power they will control.

Will they be magnanimous and share that power freely with the states of the minority languages, such as #Tamil / Bengali? (32/)

The BJP already seems to have answered that question by the way they have treated Muslims. Before the BJP under Modi came to power, political parties needed the support of Muslims. So there were many Muslim Maps, both in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.

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But under Modi, the ruling BJP does not have a single MP, either in the Lok Sabha or the Rajya Sabha. They don't need them.

Muslims are irrelevant in India today.

Will Tamils, Malayalis, Bengalis, Odias, Telugus, Kannadigas, Marathis be irrelevant in India after 2026?

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