Thread by @KumarSeshadri

Liberals in India are over the moon because of the Congress' victory in the #KarnatakaElectionResults2023

But public memory is short.

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In November 2018, six months before the general elections of 2019, the #BJP lost to the Congress in three major states: #MadhyaPradesh, #Chattisgarh, and #Rajasthan.

Yet, in the 2019 Parliamentary elections, the BJP came back to power with a bigger majority than in 2014.

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The BJP got 303 seats on their own in the 2019 #LokSabha elections, compared to 282 in 2014 - and the Congress had only 52 seats, a gain of a mere 8 seats compared to 2014.

And the Congress has won only one major state this time.

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Another data point: in 2015, the #AAP won 67/70 Assembly seats in #Delhi. But when the 2019 elections came, the AAP couldn't win a single Lok Sabha seat in Delhi. The BJP swept all six seats.

So assembly elections are a different ballgame from Lok Sabha elections.

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Assembly elections are about local issues, whereas Lok Sabha elections are about national issues. The BJP's defeat in the #KarnatakaElectionResults2023 has more to do with a perception of corruption and incompetence of the Karnataka BJP government.

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Although Modi campaigned heavily in Karnataka, this is not a judgement on Modi or his governance.

It would probably be accurate to say that despite his best efforts, Modi could not reverse the negative opinion of the people of Karnataka against the BJP government.

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What these results prove is that anti-Muslim bigotry will not be enough to turn the tide when the people are really angry with you. This is especially true in South India, because unlike the North, they have been prosperous and don't like their prosperity ruined.

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In UP or MP, people don't have many expectations of prosperity, and they are so miserable that poor performance is barely noticed. You can win elections by blaming Muslims.

South Indians hold you to a higher standard. Bigotry is okay, but only after prosperity is ensured.

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But things are different in national elections. Prosperity is largely seen as the responsibility of the state government. Modi will be judged on national issues - the national economic policies and their effects like GST, jobs, and... Bigotry.

Yes, that's right.

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Bigotry is a national issue. And different things are weighed differently. Some may think Modi is doing poorly on China, but he makes up for it by building temples and oppressing Muslims. Unemployment may get a negative score, but CAA /NRC may get a positive score.

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No, I am not being facetious here. Most Indians understand that Hindutva is a national issue. The BJP may lose points in Karnataka because Lingayats or Vokkaliggas or Kurubas or Reddys are unhappy with the state government, but all of them hate Muslims.

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And if all of them hate Muslims, they may think Modi is the best man to do something about it - like, for instance, UCC, CAA, NRC, and Hindu Rashtra.

So don't get ahead of yourselves. It's nice to get a win, but this isn't over by a long shot.

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Now that you have finished celebrating, it's time to sober up.

Modi is still the overwhelming favorite to win 2024.

I wouldn't bet my money against him.

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