Thread by @BalticDefRadar

#France and #Macron deserve a thread in the context of #Ukraine, #Russia and beyond.

- First, some historical context: France, just like #Britain, is a declining power. This process started with the loss of colonies after the World War 2.

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theguardian.com/world/2023/may…

- A clear geopolitical shift happen with the Suez Crisis in 1956, which marked the emergence of #USA and #USSR as the world powers.

- #France also experienced a humiliating military defeat by #Germany during the World War 2. That shaped rather pretentious politics of ...

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.. Charles de Gaulle, who tried to restore the French power with dissenting views vis-a-vis #Americans and #British (or the "collective Anglo-Saxons"). In 1966, #France withdrawn from the #NATO's military command.

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- Due to its complex history, #France also suffers from exceptionalism. One can see similarities with the #UK here. We should clarify this point: it is good and natural to be proud of your language, culture and independent politics. However, this shouldn't lead to ..

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.. a belief that your state (or culture) is somehow more superior or privileged than others. It is one of the reasons why part of the #French society flirts with far right-wing, like Le Pen. Again, there are similarities with the #UK, that is, the forces behind #Brexit.

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- Such history, including the Napoleonic Wars, is also one of the reasons why #France seeks a partnership with #Russia, a European culture and power which "understands" and "feels" the French values and the view of the world, as a counter-balance to the Anglo-Saxon world.

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- This #French sentiment is ironic, though, as the Grand Duchy of #Moscow was a post-Mongol state. Both historically and now #Russia has very little in common with the French values and has been much less integrated with the #European culture and system than #Ukraine.

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- Let's get back to the international relations: politics of #France has often been driven by dissent. Often for the sake of just being different, especially if it's different from Anglo-Saxons. It is the politics of arrogance.

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- Fast-forward into #EU politics. As now famous quote goes: "There are two types of countries in #Europe. There are small countries and there are countries that have not yet realized they are small." By now, #France understands this and moderates its ambitions, but ...

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.. #France still wants to lead the #EU (though understand that they need alliances). France is searching for its place in the world and the European politics, seeking to retain its power and remain relevant in security matters. #Macron proposed EU 'strategic autonomy'.

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- However, #Macron's proposal turned out to be based on the #French-centric thought of counter-balancing the Anglo-Saxons and finding a compromise with #Russia. It is fundamentally flawed and demonstrates a surprising ignorance of European affairs.

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politico.eu/article/macron…

- Central/eastern #European and #Baltic states see #Americans and #British as their strategic allies, because they offer security backed by a credible military power. #Russia is not just a threat to the interests of CEE/Baltics. It's a threat to their very existence.

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Therefore, central/eastern #European and #Baltics will never compromise with #Russia on security and they will choose allies which offer real security. Meanwhile, #France demonstrates behaviour which fundamentally undermines the security interests of these European states.

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If #USA, #UK and other states offer spare howitzers and ammo, #France offers to save #Putin's face. #Ukraine very naturally takes the former and has a very obvious decision on choosing the allies. The same applies to #Poland, #Baltics other European states close to Russia.

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#France will experience two consequences of #Russia's war against #Ukraine:

1) French power will continue to decline regardless of the outcome of the war. If RU wins, then the world is going to be a much more dangerous place where raw power will decide the matters and ..

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.. #France just doesn't have the weight to be a meaningful player. If #Ukraine wins, then the European security will be decided by those states who have been backing Ukraine the most. Moreover, the center of gravity and power will be shifting to the central/eastern Europe.

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2) #Russia-#Ukraine War will force #France to respect the national security interests of the central and eastern European states. This doesn't necessarily mean some loss for France but they are missing a historic opportunity to build friendships ..

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kyivindependent.com/roland-freuden…

.. and alliances, based on real security offers (rather than anti-#American/#British platform). Such effort would, in the future, make the #European Union actually more independent and stronger as a whole.

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