Thread by @SethAbramson

(THREAD) The more one researches the Trump-Flynn nexus, the more it's clear Trump promised Flynn a pardon in an illegal phone call in April.

(1) Flynn met Trump in summer 2015. They were supposed to meet for 30 minutes—they met for 90 minutes. (NB: echoes of the Trump-Putin chat.)

(2) Flynn told the Post that they spent the entire time talking about foreign policy, and that Flynn was very impressed with Trump's views.

(3) Flynn's began advising Trump thereafter. At the time his views on Russia were very clear—he wanted America to seek a detente with Putin.

(4) During Fall 2015 Trump expressed the same view, saying in October he'd get along well with Putin and he'd improve U.S.-Russia relations.

(5) At the time, Flynn was receiving unreported income from Russian sources, per later media reports. Whether Trump knew this is unclear.

(6) What's clear is that Putin believed Flynn to be acting as a Trump emissary when he invited him to a December 10th, 2015 RT celebration.

(7) This is the event Flynn feloniously lied about on security forms, saying he only had "unsubstantial" contact with top Russian officials.

(8) Flynn may have committed further crimes in withholding information about his payment for the event—which was around $50,000 for one day.

(9) Flynn sat at Putin's table; he told the Post the table discussion was about Putin's desire for a new direction in U.S.-Russia relations.

(10) A day before the dinner, Putin's pet media outlet suddenly republished an article essentially endorsing Trump. theguardian.com/media/greensla…

(11) So Putin had his media organ endorse Trump on November 11, 2015—then re-endorse (with the same article) the day before Putin met Flynn.

(12) Within one week of discussing a Trump presidency with Flynn, Putin appeared to publicly endorse Trump himself. uk.reuters.com/article/uk-rus…

(13) When the Post pressed Flynn (August 2016) on what he discussed with Putin, Flynn almost stopped the interview. washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoin…

(14) By late February 2016, per a Reuters story, Trump was publicly acknowledging Flynn as an official advisor to his presidential campaign.

(15) The official announcement came as Trump was in talks with Manafort to make him Chairman of his campaign—which happened two weeks later.

(16) Thereafter, Flynn was acknowledged by the campaign as Trump's advisor on Russia. He became part of a very strange foreign policy team.

(17) A key member of Flynn's/Sessions' foreign policy team was a kid fresh out of college named George Papadopoulos. politico.com/story/2016/03/…

(18) No one in the D.C. foreign policy establishment had heard of Papadopoulos, nor knew why this kid was high up in Trump's advisory team.

(19) Now we know that within 2 days of being named to the team, Papadopoulos tried to set up a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin.

(20) Papadopoulos was hired—though just a kid—with Flynn and others knowing full well that he had several contacts in "Russian leadership."

(21) But as POLITICO reported at the time, Papadopoulos was something else: an oil-and-LNG expert trained in cutting deals over oil and LNG.

(22) Remember: the Steele dossier Trump is so terrified of/obsessed with claims Trump in 2016 was trying to cut an oil/LNG deal with Putin.

(23) Steele's top-shelf Russian sources said Putin instructed Igor Sechin of Rosneft to offer Trump oil money via Trump advisor Carter Page.

(24) Page is another person who made Trump's team for no obvious reason—but within 120 days he was in Moscow in a room with Rosneft's CEO.

(25) Page admitted under TV questioning he "may have been in a room with Sechin" but added that he "never shook his hand" (NB: who *cares*?)

(26) As the Rosneft oil deal Trump was promised a cut of—per Steele—was closing in December, Flynn met secretly with Kislyak in Trump Tower.

(27) That meeting is confirmed, as is the fact that Kislyak was snuck into Trump Tower the back way so that American media wouldn't see him.

(28) Within three weeks, Flynn was on the phone with Kislyak negotiating sanctions with Russia—which he feloniously lied about to the FBI.

(29) As was widely reported in February 2017, Trump's plan had been to drop sanctions on Russia unilaterally on entering office in January.

(30) From April to December of 2016, Flynn and Sessions—Trump's foreign policy chiefs—had been in constant contact with Russia on sanctions.

(31) Kushner also had multiple telephone/in-person contacts with Kislyak—as did Manafort, as did Flynn/Sessions underlings (Phares, Gordon).

(32) All the contacts had 3 things in common: they were secret; were lied about, once discovered; and supposedly Trump knew nothing of them.

(33) Indeed, Trump's claim is that *every single member of his foreign policy team* and *all of his sons* lied to him about Russia contacts.

(34) The most high-profile revelation Trump had been—ahem—"lied to" was the revelation Mike Flynn was negotiating sanctions in December '16.

(35) So Flynn "lied" to Trump, "lied" to Pence, feloniously "lied" to the FBI, and Trump had NO PLANS TO FIRE HIM until (they) were caught.

(36) But did you know that Trump was SO concerned about having fired Flynn he had to be talked out of re-hiring him? thehill.com/homenews/admin…

(37) As THE HILL says, within 48 HOURS of firing Flynn Trump was not only singing his praises but planning to UNDO his highly public firing.

(38) Pause for a minute to think how *crazy* that rehiring would've been—and how *good a reason* Trump would've needed to keep Flynn close.

(39) Well, we now know the reason: on March 31st it was reported Flynn was trying to "cut a deal" and had "a story to tell" on Trump-Russia.

(40) So by March 31, Trump knew Flynn was a witness in a federal criminal investigation—on a matter (lying to the FBI) Trump was witness to.

(41) Therefore it was ILLEGAL for Trump to call Flynn in April to discuss that federal criminal investigation and tell him to "stay strong."

(42) We know that Trump's witness-tampering phone call was made because FLYNN admitted it himself. See this article: nymag.com/daily/intellig…

(43) And we know how Flynn—under subpoena to give Congress key documents at the time—took the "stay strong" admonition from President Trump.

(44) We know because, within 96 hours of that phone call, Flynn REFUSED to give the requested documents to Congress. And that was *bizarre*.

(45) It was bizarre because, just 3 weeks earlier, Flynn had been begging for immunity and promising Congress he'd do all he could to help.

(46) Even if Congress rebuffed those advances, it was clear Flynn's long-term strategy was to (a) cooperate and (b) eventually get immunity.

(47) Congress' rebuff of Flynn wasn't a final answer—Schiff simply noted it was TOO SOON to grant immunity. So why would Flynn burn bridges?

(48) What happened during those three weeks is the president called Flynn and—even by a call participant's admission—told him "stay strong."

(49) Given what we've since learned about Trump's obstruction efforts by phone/in person, does ANYONE believe "stay strong" is all he said?

(50) Keep in mind even "stay strong," in context, may well have been illegal. But the point is this: Trump is obsessed with Russia pardons.

(51) Trump promising a pardon to Flynn is the one thing that might have forestalled Flynn's efforts to cooperate/"tell a story" to Congress.

(52) Trump can pardon whomever—but *using a pardon to affect a known witness' participation in a federal criminal investigation is a crime*.

(53) So we KNOW Trump's Flynn call is at least eligible for indictment—and if Flynn says Trump offered a pardon that would be ANOTHER crime.

(54) Consider Trump's history with Flynn—from him acting as emissary to Putin (December '15) to plotting a Putin backchannel (December '16).

(55) We pretend Trump had no Putin access; the truth is Trump spent a year using his speeches and his aides—including Flynn—to that purpose.

(56) Flynn/Sessions have the most knowledge of Trump's secret Russia negotiations—which continued after Trump knew Russia was attacking us.

(57) Flynn Trump has bent over backwards to keep close; Sessions Trump believed would violate his attorney's Oath to help hide Russia ties.

(58) And indeed we see Sessions' own consciousness of guilt in his willingness to perjure himself repeatedly on whether he met with Kislyak.

(59) Sessions' perjuries came post-recusal, suggesting he proved himself a loyal soldier to Trump and Trump *still* fumed about the recusal.

(60) The perjuries also confirmed Trump could jettison Sessions and still expect him to stay quiet out of self-interest. Flynn? Less clear.

(61) The upshot: Trump is guilty of *many* felonies, and Mueller knows it because he's seeing *at least* the evidence I (as an attorney) am.

(62) Further upshot: Flynn *or* Sessions could deliver additional indictments on Trump, and Mueller is just waiting to see if he needs them.

(63) But we'd do well to see *who* Trump is speaking with when he shouldn't be and *how* those conversations change their legal decisions.

(64) This'll be relevant as we see who's cooperative and who isn't. Certainly, we know Trump witness-tampered with Trump Jr.—a clear felony.

(65) But if Mueller chooses to expedite his investigation, he'll just indict Flynn or Sessions for their crimes and get their stories. {end}

(PS) That a Flynn grand jury (in the Eastern District of Virginia) has existed for some time signals to Flynn Mueller has him when he wants.

(PS2) And that DC grand jury we've been assuming is for Manafort and (eventually) Trump is just as clear a signal from Mueller to Sessions.

(PS3) Because Sessions' crimes were committed in DC, it's a DC grand jury that would indict him. But Mueller's held back by two things here:

(PS4) a) Indicting Sessions hurts the DOJ—which Mueller by temperament wants to avoid; b) Sessions is a witness in Trump's Obstruction case.

(PS5) If someone's going to be YOUR witness in a case against a PRESIDENT, you CAN'T indict them for perjury—for reasons I hope are obvious.

(PS6) As long as Sessions secretly agrees to cooperate with Mueller, he'll NEVER face perjury charges. Trump's attorneys have told him this.

(PS7) So if you want to know why Trump is pissed at Sessions, it's because a) he can't speak to him, and b) he assumes that he's cut a deal.

(PS8) Trump could offer Sessions a pardon, but a) it'd be a crime to do so mid-probe, and b) Sessions could still have a career if he rolls.

(PS9) I hope what I've done here is a give a glimpse behind the curtain—and underscored that 2015 is almost as key to this probe as 2016 is.

(PS10) And while I can't say what the GOP will do with them, I *can* tell you that Mueller *will* refer to the DOJ *many* Trump indictments.

(NOTE) Trump publicly saying *repeatedly* Flynn did nothing wrong despite knowing he lied to the FBI telegraphs his intent to pardon Flynn.

(NOTE2) Trump saying "I didn't tell Flynn to talk to Kislyak but I could've and it would've been OK" means "I told him to talk to Kislyak."

(NOTE3) Recall, too, Trump asking Comey to drop the Flynn investigation and repeatedly saying publicly Flynn has been "treated unfairly."

(NOTE4) Flynn *embarrassed* Trump. Knowing Trump, the only way he stands by him is if he told him to do as he did *and* Flynn can hurt him.

(NOTE5) Need to reiterate that to anyone who's practiced criminal law Trump's behavior is so cartoonishly "consciousness of guilt" it HURTS.

As I said in a thread yesterday—now pinned on my feed—we MUST keep our eyes on Flynn. This news confirms Mueller is. washingtonexaminer.com/robert-mueller…