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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
European Parliament may vote to reject "sufficient progress" on Brexit - so no trade talks yet - about an hour before PM conf speech on Wed
vote originally planned Tuesday, but European Parliament (which has veto on A50 deal) will now declare verdict, minutes before PM Big Speech
Though some in Parliament think the document is wrong - and it will take place on Tuesday after all 🤷🏽‍♂️
So, like others, I've got hold of the draft EU Parliament resolution that will be voted on ahead of PM's conference speech - interesting:
Top line of draft resolution: "sufficient progress has not been made" in all three areas: 1/5
Second: Any transition period as, requested by PM, would require continued acceptance of acquis, under ECJ jurisdiction:
Third: UK proposals on settled status for EU citizens "fall short" and there have been "regrettable administrative practices" at Home Office
Fourth: Ireland/border: only way there will be no physical infrastructure at border is if UK stays in SM/CU or NI stays in some form of same
5. Awaits "concrete proposals" on financial settlement, says substantial progress was "seriously impeded" by late acknowledgement
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
It’s here:
“As you know, we are not in a position to agree to anything that changes or is inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement...”
Repeats December Council conclusions reassured that those conclusions have “legal value”
Read 10 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
In an eve of vote speech tomorrow in a top pro-Brexit area PM will say, acc to Downing St “based on the evidence of the last week, she now believes that MPs blocking Brexit is a more likely outcome than leaving with no deal”.
Meanwhile Johnson, Davis, Raab, Patel - 12 former ministers in total write an open letter to all Tory MPs urging them to vote it down “it will not lead to no Brexit or to an early GE”
And @DavidHenigUK ex DiT official gets quoted by those Brexiter ministers in their letter:
Read 11 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Corbyn gnomic as ever on actual Brexit policy... tho not inconsistent with Gardiner on Ridge last week - that Labour should attempt to negotiate a comprehensive customs union, and then put that to the people - which is my best guess at where Labour manifesto policy would end up
Corbyn gave the clearest indication yet that should the vote go down on Tuesday, Labour would push for an A50 extension. He hinted at this when I interviewed him last month, but seemed to suggest it was inevitable on Marr...
Also telling that Corbyn framing leaving the customs union as a trade that will weaken environmental & worker rights/standards for the express purpose of doing a US FTA. As he would campaign heavily against a US FTA, no downside to staying in CU...
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
No10 says EU must decide if it will release a letter of assurances before the vote on Tuesday but EU sources tell me they are waiting for the go-ahead advice from Downing Street 1
The letter could have been released Saturday night ahead of No10 Sunday media blitz but wasn’t .. It could be released tonight or tomorrow ahead of vote .. OR EU/No10 may decide better not since 2
The EU letter will I’m told contain assurances/explanations of current deal and nothing new. The letter would come from Juncker/Tusk in Brussels and they can’t change the #Brexit deal without negotiation with and go ahead from 27 EU leaders 3
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The problem at the heart of the #Brexit impasse is still whether the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU.

Solve this and you largely solve Brexit. 1/Thread
Both the problem, and the failure to address it, is writ large in May's deal.

Officially UK is NOT joining a customs union....but in the absence of unicorns we clearly are.

Either via the Backstop or when its clear 'other arrangements' dont exist to fix the Irish border /2
Unfortunately May never had the courage to confront her Brexiteers over this fact. She fudged in Lancaster House, and kept fudging.

Recall this time last year, as the Irish reality dawned, senior peeps like @DLidington were flying kites on this.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 21 tweets
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Liz Webster🔶🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇪🇺 #FBPE
@abcpoppins
Sat in High Court. The grounds of @UKEUchallenge are going to ensure some revealing facts emerge about this #brexit.

The notification of withdrawal act 2017 merely gave the PM permission to notify a decision which hasn’t been made according to our constitutional requirements.
The PM’s decision which @A50challenge ensured was located is illegitimate.

How can one person make a decision which impacts on every EU citizen ?

@financialeyes
Court cannot quash result of the ref bc it was not legally binding. Claimants seek declaration result is invalid bc of breach of spending &fraud. Gov are treating something which was advisory as binding. Ct plays essential role in looking at process which led to this result.
Read 25 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So will there-won't there be a #brexit breakthrough summit in November?

Lot's of conflicting noise around. Firm predictions a mug's game.

So here's what I know, after chats with both sides 1/Thread
There are two opposing forces at work here:

On the positive side....a gathering political momentum for quick progress. This is shared jointly in London (which wants vote by Xmas) but also, EU sources say, by Tusk/Junker who are frankly bored with Brexit

But opposing this... /2
Is the equally audible notes of caution in last 24 hours from Barnier, Taoiseach Varadkar, Commission Hogan and others saying that the "betting" must be December.

At October EUCO there was also a sense from Macron/Merkel, I understand, that they could run to DEC.

So.../3
Read 20 tweets
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Daniel Gibson
@dlsgibson
Aside from Davis failing to provide the #Brexit bills as ordered, the other take away from this piece is Patel claiming government should tell EU to sod off, both demonstrating they still don't get UK's weakness in negotiations 1/n
theguardian.com/politics/2017/…
All the people claiming UK should just walk away from the table and show Johnny Foreigner just how strong the UK is miss one crucial point, the UK isn't strong anymore 2/n
It isn't putting the UK down to point out the facts, it's slipping in rankings, productivity down, credit rating reduced, and this is before we point out that its reliance on imports for its supply chain 3/n
Read 15 tweets
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James Crisp
@JamesCrisp6
Some quick thoughts on @MichelBarnier speech to CER on #Brexit.
1. He began with the stick and ended with the carrot of an ambitious free trade deal (but the carrot has strings.) 1/
In sign of strong EU support for Ireland, MB stresses that N.Ireland is already a separate regulatory space to rest of UK. A push to keep NI in Single market and customs union 2/
MB took a hammer to Brexiters' cherished assumptions of freedom from but selective participation in EU regulation. Was withering on no deal cheerleaders 3/
Read 7 tweets

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