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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Corbyn gnomic as ever on actual Brexit policy... tho not inconsistent with Gardiner on Ridge last week - that Labour should attempt to negotiate a comprehensive customs union, and then put that to the people - which is my best guess at where Labour manifesto policy would end up
Corbyn gave the clearest indication yet that should the vote go down on Tuesday, Labour would push for an A50 extension. He hinted at this when I interviewed him last month, but seemed to suggest it was inevitable on Marr...
Also telling that Corbyn framing leaving the customs union as a trade that will weaken environmental & worker rights/standards for the express purpose of doing a US FTA. As he would campaign heavily against a US FTA, no downside to staying in CU...
Ie expect Labour Opposition to deploy Vote Leave style campaign against possible US FTA & actually even before that against the Government effort to join the Trans Pacific Partnership -if we get to that situation. A backdrop to 2022 election, if it somehow doesn’t happen earlier.
real nut to crack in Labour policy is what on earth is meant by “good Single Market Deal”... only things Labour say they have problem with amount to tiny fraction (1%?) of Single Market acquis -some aspects of competition and state aid policy. Also enough SM to not need backstop.
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
And on notion of UK & Ireland bilateral treaty - I asked Varadkar at last months EU summit about precisely this point - response UK leaving EU, so therefore negotiation with EU alone. Basically “not this again”...not sure why Ireland would break with EU27
Bilateral treaty not in itself a bad idea - and Dublin’s backstop conundrum is No Deal over backstop precipitates immediately the problem it is trying to avoid in 3/4 years time.

It is just difficult to see why Dublin would give up leverage of EU27/Commission on any of this.
Sky Sources: “Not a hope” of a bilateral treaty.

Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Raab tells Sophy “we can’t let the EU bully us or call the shots” and so if no changes to deal should leave with no deal on WTO terms; EU will demand a negotiation “reasonably swiftly” and as a third country we would have more negotiation leverage

#Ridge
Few of the optimistic claims “we hold all the cards/ German carmakers/ easy trade deals/ trade deals ready to go/ need us more than we need them” about how EU would respond to Brexit have been borne out by the experience of past 2 years - indeed if true bullying wd be impossible
Dominic Raab on Marr suggests that in conversations as Brexit Sec with @simoncoveney “there was an opening” to get a backstop exit mechanism “got ruled out by less moderate Leo Varadkar”.

This is what Coveney told me on cam while Raab still Brexit Sec:
news.sky.com/story/ireland-…
Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Yougov updated its EU tracker poll...

Pretty consistent Brexit Right lead 3-4 points (from 2016 till April 2017
Level pegging after GE2017
Brexit Wrong consistent small lead since Sep 2017
Brexit Wrong close to double digit lead vs Brexit Right, over past month (at it w/o DK)
...or alternatively on its tracker poll, it’s now exactly a year since Yougov found a majority (+1) who thought Brexit was Right versus wrong... the last three reading for that are , -9, -7, -11 (ie in favour of Brexit was wrong)

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…
The real horror story for the Government here is the polling over time for its handling of Brexit:

Started off pretty bad in autumn 2016 -30
Gets less bad after Lancaster House -15
Goes Positive after Article 50
Collapses after GE2017 -30
Total freefall -50/ -70 since July
Read 4 tweets

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Open Europe
@OpenEurope
Labour leader @jeremycorbyn delivering #Brexit speech in Wakefield: Let there be no doubt: Theresa May’s deal is a bad deal for our country and Labour will vote against it next week in parliament.
Corbyn: If the govt cannot pass its most important legislation, there must be general election at the earliest opportunity.
Corbyn: If general election cannot be secured, Labour will keep other options on the table, including another #Brexit public vote
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Jack D 🌹| #GTTO | ✋🏽
@JackDunc1
#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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Helen McEntee TD
@HMcEntee
Addressing @FinancialTimes Brexit and Beyond Conference outlining Irish government perspective on #Brexit "Cross border trade represents the first export market for 73% for Northern Ireland's SME's. More than 7,000 business trade across the border supporting 160,000 jobs."
"EU membership and the Good Friday Agreement have brought immeasurable benefits to the people of Ireland, North and South and help normalise relationships between the people across the island of Ireland. We want to ensure this is not impeded by #brexit."
"We welcomed the publication of the UK proposals last week on the Customs aspects of the withdrawal agreement. It is clear that further work is still required in particular on the regulatory alignment aspect in order to make progress needed on the backstop before EU Council."
Read 7 tweets
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Clive Bates
@Clive_Bates
More on the slow death of a dream. Telegraph #Brexit briefing is softening up the faithful for the inevitable permanent fudge, hinting at another five years in the customs union (and, necessarily, in the single market). This ‘interim period’ would, in practice, never end. 1/10
So the resolution of the Cabinet squabble over future customs arrangements is, “customs partnership and *then* #maxfac” so the government can do what it does best: avoid making the choice. 2/10
But UK and EU tariffs will not diverge in practice because of the preposterous tracking requirements this would trigger under the customs partnership. Fox can’t sign trade deals until this works, which it won’t - and no one will even try if it is merely an interim. 3/10
Read 11 tweets
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The Coastal PO
@CoastalPO
We’re (10 UK small scale fishermen) here @FishmongersHall at the #FishingInTransition @TheJerryPercy @CreelScff @Bluemarinef @AdrianGahan @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @CRHClover @Bluemarinef @law_rich @Erin_Priddle @NFFO_UK @SWFPA
We’re here to hear what are the real deal prospects & real world impacts for all UK #FisheriesInTransition rather than any political or media spin about it.
EU official told him early on in #Brexit negotiations, “You [UK] have no cards, except fish.”
Read 100 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #CFP #brexpeasement #Remain #FBPE #marr #CPC18 #TheresaMay #PeoplesVote #EFTA #BrexitShambles #PCPEU #FisheriesInTransition #JC4PM #GTTO #CorbynSpeech #EEA #brexitinquiry #Labour #EØS #maxfac #brexit #FishingInTransition #Corbyn #Ridge
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