, 11 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
In an eve of vote speech tomorrow in a top pro-Brexit area PM will say, acc to Downing St “based on the evidence of the last week, she now believes that MPs blocking Brexit is a more likely outcome than leaving with no deal”.
Meanwhile Johnson, Davis, Raab, Patel - 12 former ministers in total write an open letter to all Tory MPs urging them to vote it down “it will not lead to no Brexit or to an early GE”
And @DavidHenigUK ex DiT official gets quoted by those Brexiter ministers in their letter:
Meanwhile on the other side...
Cross party group publishes draft referendum legislation... with May’s Deal versus Remain as the question. Cable thinks can get it through Commons May EP elections...
PM will cite 97 Welsh ref closeness (0.6% Yes margin) still “accepted by both sides and popular legitimacy of that institution never seriously been questioned”

Cons incl new Maidenhead MP Mrs May voted against 2nd reading Gov of Wales Bill 97

Proposed 2nd ref 2005 GE manifesto
And indeed intriguingly the 1997 debate then has numerous references to the mandate from the small margin - eg here Nigel Evans says only a double digit majority margin would “settle the issue once and for all”..”it did not and it remains unsettled”.
in Stoke Central - seat in 2017 Tories were on course to win - a reminder of fundamental reality causing her problems - not coups, Speakers, rebels - but that she asked for an increased majority to strengthen Brexit hand - & lost that majority. Sky Views: news.sky.com/story/sky-view…
Senior minister contacts me:
“behind 20 backbenchers who voted against no deal are a significant number of Ministers who let Govt know over time they share that view. So number is larger, block against no deal absolute. If Brexiteers can understand this, should vote for PM deal”
Another minister with Norway sympathies is pondering whether has to resign to vote for one of the Letwin amendments being prepared, already assuming vote goes down...
A sub plot here are the ongoing skirmishes between 2nd ref supporters and Norway plus supporters, one of the former says assumes all amendments emerging from Boles/Letwin are aimed to help PM get WA through as Norway option needs WA...
Lastly for now - plans afoot from all Parliamentary factions for shows of Parliamentary force within minutes/ hours of a presumed lost meaningful vote, with possible resignations, amendments, converts - tomorrow night into Wednesday will be quite something.
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