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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 11 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
In an eve of vote speech tomorrow in a top pro-Brexit area PM will say, acc to Downing St “based on the evidence of the last week, she now believes that MPs blocking Brexit is a more likely outcome than leaving with no deal”.
Meanwhile Johnson, Davis, Raab, Patel - 12 former ministers in total write an open letter to all Tory MPs urging them to vote it down “it will not lead to no Brexit or to an early GE”
And @DavidHenigUK ex DiT official gets quoted by those Brexiter ministers in their letter:
Meanwhile on the other side...
Cross party group publishes draft referendum legislation... with May’s Deal versus Remain as the question. Cable thinks can get it through Commons May EP elections...
PM will cite 97 Welsh ref closeness (0.6% Yes margin) still “accepted by both sides and popular legitimacy of that institution never seriously been questioned”

Cons incl new Maidenhead MP Mrs May voted against 2nd reading Gov of Wales Bill 97

Proposed 2nd ref 2005 GE manifesto
And indeed intriguingly the 1997 debate then has numerous references to the mandate from the small margin - eg here Nigel Evans says only a double digit majority margin would “settle the issue once and for all”..”it did not and it remains unsettled”.
in Stoke Central - seat in 2017 Tories were on course to win - a reminder of fundamental reality causing her problems - not coups, Speakers, rebels - but that she asked for an increased majority to strengthen Brexit hand - & lost that majority. Sky Views: news.sky.com/story/sky-view…
Senior minister contacts me:
“behind 20 backbenchers who voted against no deal are a significant number of Ministers who let Govt know over time they share that view. So number is larger, block against no deal absolute. If Brexiteers can understand this, should vote for PM deal”
Another minister with Norway sympathies is pondering whether has to resign to vote for one of the Letwin amendments being prepared, already assuming vote goes down...
A sub plot here are the ongoing skirmishes between 2nd ref supporters and Norway plus supporters, one of the former says assumes all amendments emerging from Boles/Letwin are aimed to help PM get WA through as Norway option needs WA...
Lastly for now - plans afoot from all Parliamentary factions for shows of Parliamentary force within minutes/ hours of a presumed lost meaningful vote, with possible resignations, amendments, converts - tomorrow night into Wednesday will be quite something.
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
And on notion of UK & Ireland bilateral treaty - I asked Varadkar at last months EU summit about precisely this point - response UK leaving EU, so therefore negotiation with EU alone. Basically “not this again”...not sure why Ireland would break with EU27
Bilateral treaty not in itself a bad idea - and Dublin’s backstop conundrum is No Deal over backstop precipitates immediately the problem it is trying to avoid in 3/4 years time.

It is just difficult to see why Dublin would give up leverage of EU27/Commission on any of this.
Sky Sources: “Not a hope” of a bilateral treaty.

Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Raab tells Sophy “we can’t let the EU bully us or call the shots” and so if no changes to deal should leave with no deal on WTO terms; EU will demand a negotiation “reasonably swiftly” and as a third country we would have more negotiation leverage

#Ridge
Few of the optimistic claims “we hold all the cards/ German carmakers/ easy trade deals/ trade deals ready to go/ need us more than we need them” about how EU would respond to Brexit have been borne out by the experience of past 2 years - indeed if true bullying wd be impossible
Dominic Raab on Marr suggests that in conversations as Brexit Sec with @simoncoveney “there was an opening” to get a backstop exit mechanism “got ruled out by less moderate Leo Varadkar”.

This is what Coveney told me on cam while Raab still Brexit Sec:
news.sky.com/story/ireland-…
Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Yougov updated its EU tracker poll...

Pretty consistent Brexit Right lead 3-4 points (from 2016 till April 2017
Level pegging after GE2017
Brexit Wrong consistent small lead since Sep 2017
Brexit Wrong close to double digit lead vs Brexit Right, over past month (at it w/o DK)
...or alternatively on its tracker poll, it’s now exactly a year since Yougov found a majority (+1) who thought Brexit was Right versus wrong... the last three reading for that are , -9, -7, -11 (ie in favour of Brexit was wrong)

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…
The real horror story for the Government here is the polling over time for its handling of Brexit:

Started off pretty bad in autumn 2016 -30
Gets less bad after Lancaster House -15
Goes Positive after Article 50
Collapses after GE2017 -30
Total freefall -50/ -70 since July
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Louise Bagshawe
@LouiseBagshawe
MINI THREAD For American friends, imagine parliament divided into three.

1/3 for May’s deal - A
1/3 for a much tougher deal with the EU, or hard #Brexit - B
1/3 for Remain - C

B and C combined today to say “no” to A, but their objectives are totally against each other.
2. May is going to bring back the deal with minor changes. If B and C vote together again she is more likely to go with C than B.

But, legislation needs to happen to stop B winning by running out the clock

I don’t know if May will accept C. She may be more likely to go B
3. I read @theresa_may as a woman who shares several traits with Mrs. Thatcher. Not intractable; but she is, like her predecessor, driven by duty, and she sees Brexit as her duty. She has fought hard for it despite voting Remain in the referendum.
Read 9 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
The EU is in watch and wait mode but this is some of the thinking going on behind the scenes ahead of tonight’s vote in parliament #Brexit 1
EU leaders have no Plan B up their sleeve(s). They will only BEGIN to start talking together about a What Next after tonight’s vote 2
The EU sees no point in the PM flying out here this week if the #Brexit deal suffers a huge defeat today in parliament. EU leaders have nothing ready to say to her 3
Read 15 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Corbyn reality check
I'll admit I've never been a Corbyn fan, my personal low point was actually the Sky TV special he did just before the Ref

I actually hoped he'd push a pro EU line but instead, he spent more time on rail nationalisation than the EU, it was very depressing
2) the follow up with "we must trigger article 50 immediately" was shocking in itself but it was also the first time I saw Corbyn supporters pushing a "but what he meant was.." to any significant degree. That's the moment I suppose people really got entrenched either side
3) and its easy to understand why Corbyn's supporters feel under siege with the constant attacks.

But as we approach a cliff edge #Brexit in 100 days & Corbyn's limitations are helping to get us there, perhaps its time for a retrospective - maybe everyone was right?
Read 27 tweets
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
Brexit Irony No.521:
Brexit would make Metropolitan Elitism worse-

The Brexit vote was against our London-centric system. So if there's an economic hit because of a Brexit London voted against, Westminster would make sure the London Banking sector survived but everywhere else...
Many of the problems that pushed people to vote Brexit had nothing to do with the EU. One of those problems was the government choosing to protect the banks who caused the crash with bailouts while ordinary people just got austerity.
The rich took irresponsible risks with the country's future, but they were protected either by moving their money away or by the government and it was those with least who suffered the most.
Sound familiar? #Brexit
Read 5 tweets
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FranchiseKF
@FranchiseKF
Week 2 CFB. Gonna go down the rotation and talk ACC and SEC:

GT @ USF (+3.5/63) Color me surprised by side and total here. Expected USF to be slight chalk but hasn't been the case. Total feels about a TD too high to me here but this is a very high variance game, IMO.
Not much to be gleaned from either team's Week 1 games against Elon and Alcorn State. I'll start with GT, I think they could be a candidate for improvement this year. I think the big upgrade was getting rid of Roof at DC and hiring Woody. Simplifying things is usually good.
Didnt' see GT week one but appears they are still trying to get Marshall to throw more and he's still throwing like the A-Back he played prior to QB. Earlier this week USF LB was asked about GT and he said, "Navy with athletes". Last time they played Navy, 52-45 win in 2016.
Read 86 tweets
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Steve Parks
@steveparks
Once again the @frontlineclub is packed with journalists, @Byline_Media folk, and TV cameras for the latest revelations in the Cambridge Analytica / Trump / Brexit saga from two whistleblowers.

Follow this thread for live-tweeting coverage, and forgive my typos...
... first thing to note is that security has been increased a level or two since last week’s gathering. Two checkpoints against the guest list, and a minder scanning the room.

We’re about to kick off...
... the focus of attention tonight is Shahmir Sanni, joined again by @chrisinsilico who was the focus last week. @carolecadwalla will be joining later when she’s filed at the @guardian
Chris is carrying a large ring binder of documents...
Read 49 tweets

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