, 12 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Another stab at summarising the structure of #A50, with some comments

The key pt from this is that the path to a 'no-deal' is relatively easy

That's because it relies on frustrating the efforts at coordination needed for other outcomes to happen

ie 'no-deal' has weight because it's the default condition, thanks to 2-yr time limit

moreover, it becomes ever easier, because the less time that remains, the less chance of being able to agree a deal

Of course, it all parties are committed to a deal, then time extension becomes an option, but that depends on good faith & momentum

Which is why HMG & COM have spent so much time/effort on keeping that rhetoric

As is regularly noted, COM is UK's best friend in these negotiations, as strong interest in finding deal & demonstrating its value

However, route 1 to a deal remains making current process work, not relying on peril down the line

So HMG wld be misguided to play the peril card of threatening to walk or stalling.

Basic problem remains that UK domestic and A50 incentives don't line up very well, so expect more confusion.

In summary: a 'no-deal' is a non-negligible risk, even if almost no-one wants it

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