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1. I’ve been waiting to see what other people said before addressing the ‘No deal’ argument regarding how the UK trades without deals. 
2. In 2016, roughly 80% of the UK economy were services, and the export of services exceeded manufactured items. ft.com/content/2ce78f…
3. In 2015, the EU amounted to just under 35.7% of the total of UK service exports to the world
4. Advocates of the ‘No deal’ say we trade perfectly well with the US. 22.7% is, indeed, a healthy slice of the total service exports.
5. They don’t talk much about the other large economies, probably because they aren’t looking so good.
6. In fact, if we remove the USA from the Rest of the world figures, the EU has a significant share of the market 46.3%
7. That’s 46.3% from just 25% of the Nominal GDP in that equation. (Slightly less, since I only modelled 164 ROW countries)
8. Add the EEA into it, and those lines become even closer. In 2015 it amounted to 48.1%
9. We can actually add a couple of continents together. The Americas, Africa, Australasia, and Oceania, and the EU outperforms them.
10. Looking at the bigger picture, it’s not that “the rest of the world is growing”. Only “Some” of the rest of the world is growing.
11. There is some modest growth in Africa
12. After two years of small gains, EFTA is on a small decline.
13. The rest of Europe is similarly seeing decline and growth, resulting in a reasonably flat line.
14. Similar fluctuations can be seen in the Americas (without the USA)
15. Real growth can actually be seen in the rest of Asia.
16. If we look at the whole of Asia we can see the big winners are Saudi Arabia and India
17. Which means Brexit is an opportunity to damage our EU trade and seek a deal with Saudi Arabia. To benefit from all this growth…
18. Just as soon as Liam has completed those trade deals in the declining markets Australasia.
19. Putting the higher value EU exports against entire continents, its growth as a percentage looks small.
20. Comparing them against the actual cash value, however, and the EU is the clear winner.
21. Only when you add the cash value growth of the whole world together over the last 4 years does the EU look small
22. But here is the thing, as the Eurozone has begun to recover, service exports to the EU have grown year on year.
23. A small part of the world market has accounted for 48.8% of the UK’s cash growth in service exports over the last 3 years.
24. The cash growth of the EU nearly doubled that of its nearest rival.
25. Which means in the UK’s largest export market, the share of the rest of the world is in decline while the EU is rising.
26. So, we don’t trade “perfectly well” with the rest of the world in our key export. It’s more complicated than that.
27. There is a myriad of different Non-tariff barriers that vary from country to country.
28. In the United States professional services are even regulated at the State level.
29. Trade deals can be struck, but they are still relatively bad at addressing service barriers in any detailed way.
30. The EU has been working on dropping barriers to services with the Single Market for years, and they still haven’t finished. It's hard.
31. With an aggressive Services trade policy, some of the bigger trade deals still won’t be seen any time soon.
32. Even Victoria Hewson of the Legatum Institute admits deals with the big emerging countries will be a long slow burning process.
33. Any trade deal with the EU will be static, and won’t capture all the services or replicate the speed of the Single Market development
34. And any attempt to liberalise services in the WTO, or TiSA, will make the EU’s efforts to cut barriers look like Usain Bolt
35. Neither the WTO nor TiSA cover the complete range of services, and the EU have excluded provisions on things like audio-visual
36. The EU has only done two trade deals including audio-visual, and these only made limited concessions.
37. 'No deal' means that 60% of channels registered with OFCOM will be unable to broadcast services to the EU.
38. And worse still: Even a deal with the EU won’t guarantee their continued access.
39. With Brexit the UK is putting barriers up on the biggest and fastest growing market for its largest export.
40. A no deal in terms of adding barriers to existing, and future, customers is really going to hurt the UK with no obvious quick resolution
41. A trade deal is going to add barriers to the UK, and will still hurt the UK in some sectors with no quick resolution.
42. If the UK wanted a trade deal best suited to its economy, it would be trying to renegotiate membership of the Single Market
43. The UK has an economy that is roughly 80% services with over 50% of its exports being services.
44. It should be a member of the EU, and at the heart of pushing for liberalisation in its main and most important market.
45. Instead it is chasing deals on the other side of the planet, where sales of its largest export are declining. /End
