3 days ago, Trump's lawyers said Trump wanted to negotiate the terms of a Mueller interview. I said it was a stunt—Trump wouldn't sit for an interview.
1 day ago, Trump said an interview "seemed unlikely."
It's not about me specifically—defense attorneys just know defendants.
1 day ago, Trump said an interview "seemed unlikely."
It's not about me specifically—defense attorneys just know defendants.
2/ But I and many others note that Trump can be subpoenaed by Mueller if he refuses to be interviewed (which he will). My prediction is that Trump would then try to "quash" the subpoena in court on obscure Separation of Powers grounds. I think he'd lose that—but you never know.
3/ Trump's argument would be that because Mueller has subpoena power only by the grace of a DOJ reg Trump can eliminate, subpoenaing Trump without there being a Special Counsel *statute*—only a reg—forces him to choose between two executive powers: ending regs and enforcing laws.
4/ His argument would therefore be that Congress must pass a Special (or Independent) Counsel *statute*—as it has in the past—because *then* his decision on whether or not to comply with a subpoena would not impermissibly force him to give up one executive power to honor another.
5/ I still think he'd lose an attempt at injunctive relief, but (a) it might allow him to drag things out so long that the utility or possibility of Mueller interviewing him is somehow compromised and (b) with the current SCOTUS (which loves to tell Congress to act) he could win.
6/ Seeking such relief would also allow him to challenge Mueller's ability to be Special Counsel *indirectly*—without Trump having to fire him, merely filing motions that hypothetically suppose he could or would—which would please his lawyers, who don't want him to fire Mueller.
7/ So don't fall for Trump's lawyers trying to convince America Trump is willing to testify if some conditions are met—Trump gets to decide whether he talks, and as he knows he's guilty and knows he can't keep from lying in a way that will get him caught by Mueller, he'll refuse.
8/ You won't hear this analysis from many in media, as few there have been criminal defense attorneys (you get a lot of prosecutors, appellate attorneys, government lawyers, legal pundits, and in-house counselors, but not many attorneys who've sat with *hundreds* of defendants).
9/ Trump is the most common type of guilty defendant (that is, among those guilty defendants who refuse to plead—which, you must understand, is only 5% to 10% of all guilty defendants). So his past behavior—and what he'll do next—is predictable to most criminal defense attorneys.
10/ Trump is *so* guilty—another fact clear to anyone who's represented many guilty defendants—that I wouldn't be at all surprised if he either (a) fires Mueller to avoid an interview, or (b) tells his attorneys to let a court try to find him in contempt for refusing a subpoena.
CONCLUSION/ If you assume a) Mueller *will* demand an interview or testimony from Trump, and b) Trump *will* do whatever he must to avoid that, you will (c) have a *much* better understanding of where this is all headed than almost anyone in major media and all politics-watchers.
