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Bad #ElectionTwitter pickup line: "Hey there, want to slide into my...DeMographic Swingometer?"

The wait is over. Introducing @CookPolitical's newest, most addictive tool: Image
Have you ever wondered what the 2020 map might look like if:

- Biden restores Black turnout to Obama-era levels?
- Trump does better w/ Hispanics than last time?
- College-educated whites swing to Biden?

Now you can choose your own adventure! at either @NBCNews/@CookPolitical.
Like the @NBCNews interactive, the @CookPolitical tool allows you to build & share your own maps. It also has some extras for election *super-nerds:*

1) Real-time raw popular vote tally
2) Real-time red/blue state shading
3) Dynamic table w/ state-level demographic breakdowns
Read 5 tweets
1/ Just voted for my first Democratic President ever @JoeBiden in VA

He won’t be prefect, and I won’t agree with everything he does. I’ll call balls and strikes when warranted and continue to stand for limited government, Free trade, Nato, & Balanced budgets. Image
2/ I hope with tough love the Repub Party chooses to change its Path back towards those very ideals

I made the mistake of voting 3rd Party in 2016,& I won’t do that again. Too much is at stake,& this president clearly can’t handle any of it

3/ for those who don’t know, I became a Republican in 2007 after watching Glen Beck (yeah I know , I don’t like him anymore)

Supported McCain in 2008 (wore a his t shirt the day after he lost). Vouteered in HS for Romney (even shook his hand!). But in 2016 after Trump insulted
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Update on my Election Matrix

Finished last night doing a"Best Case"scenario formula on if state poll errors are off by the same margins in 2020 as they were in 16(they all won't be,but this is a best case 4 Trump)

B: 298
T: 240

a very close election,look below 4 screen shots

1- There are formulas in this so it is quickly editable now

2- Texas, Florida, Mich, & Minn are the only states within a point for either person

3- If Biden lost Florida, in this scenario, it would be a tie, where each state (from 2020's election) gets 1 vote... Image
from each "delegation" so to say... who wins house seats and where is very important in that situation.

4- this is assuming Biden loses both the KS and Main single EVs

5- This doesn't take it account at all Biden over preforming Hillary (between polling and final results)
Read 5 tweets
The general election is exactly two months away. Read this thread for some tips on how to prepare to cast your vote on November 3rd. #ElectionTwitter #vote #Vote2020 Image
First, make sure you are registered to vote. You can check your registration status at If you're not registered but think you are eligible, check your state election website for steps on how to register.
Once you're registered, you need to decide how you will vote. There are two ways to cast your vote: in-person at a polling place or with a mail-in ballot. Because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, more Americans than usual plan to vote by mail.
Read 11 tweets
When you apply the MoE from 2016's 538 avgs to today's #'s

Biden +5.1 <-

B+8.8 ->

B +3.9 <-

Trump + .1 <-

B +1.07 <-

B +3.5 <-

B +1.1 <-

B +2.6 <-

T +2.7 <-

T +4.3 <-

T +6.3 <-

EC- 308-230 Biden
Read 3 tweets
1/ I was wondering when looking at polling recently? how stable are the polls compared to other cycles, and how does that change (10 poll grouping) looks now versus then

very interesting results from my Election Matrix

20: 1.3% Veration
16: 2.6
12: 1.5
08: 2.2
04: 2.2
2/ What does that mean? basically means in that cycle, the average change between the 10 poll groupings averages is that percentage

for example, in 2016, one group of 10 polls comes out, and the next 10 are around a 2.6% deviation off of the last group
3/ Meaning the higher the number, the less stable the polls differences are. The lower, trends are slower in that cycle

2020 so far is the best
2016 has the worse (from modern RCP data)

This basically means, it takes twice the amount of polls in 2020 to show the same movement
Read 4 tweets
#ElectionTwitter Map of which Democratic Presidential Candidate got the highest % of the vote in each county, from 1972-2016. Carter's run in 1976 (colored red) achieved the highest Democratic % in the most counties, 2,010 in total, many in areas that are very conservative today.
If we focus on the modern Dem coalition by taking out Carter's runs, most counties highest Dem % comes from one of: Obama's run in 2008 (which did well in more liberal areas), Clinton's runs in 1992/1996 (strong in the South), & Dukakis' run in 1988 (areas hit by the Farm Crisis)
Here's the best performing Democratic Presidential Candidate by State from 1972-2016. Carter's run in 1976 & Obama's 2008/2012 runs achieved the highest Democratic % in the most states, except for: CA (Clinton 2016), MA (Kerry 2004), AZ/LA (Clinton 1996), & IA (Dukakis 1988).
Read 5 tweets
ATTN: disillusioned progressives rage donating & text/phone/postcard-banking for down ballot races. LET’S ORGANIZE. Here’s some strategy for big structural change in the Electoral College.

FLIP: #AZ06|#GA07|#ME02|#MN01|#MN07|#NC08|#PA01|#PA10

You’re likely familiar with the GOP & ALEC gerrymandering state districts, winning both House and Senate in 2010. Dems could effectively do the same

Here’s how:
Our key to electoral reform is through the states. If we focus on the districts listed above, we can flip STATES
Thankfully, due to the hard work of voters and lawyers such as @marceelias, gerrymandering is widely struck down, and redistricting is either complete or underway. We can use this to our advantage. For more info, @slaythedragon is a great movie (on Hulu).
Read 15 tweets
In 2018, #MO01 Congressman Lacy Clay was challenged from the left in his primary by activist Cori Bush. He won by a decisive but soft 59-35, considering his large cash advantage and high name recognition. They are heading for a rematch two weeks from today. (1/4) #ElectionTwitter Image
MO-01's racial makeup is plurality black among all residents, and the Dem primary electorate is majority black. Compared to the 2018 election results, you may note that Cori Bush excelled with white voters in southern #MO01, but there's more to the story. (2/4) #ElectionTwitter Image
Here is a map of #MO01's educational attainment, highlighting the percentage of residents with Bachelor's degrees. Compared to the 2018 election results, Cori Bush's support was very highly correlated with Bachelor's degree attainment. (3/4) #ElectionTwitter Image
Read 4 tweets
QGIS Learning Thread Below! Are you interested in learning how to map? I’m going to go step by step to produce a Texas Map. Follow along and you will be able to try it yourself. #ElectionTwitter
Step 1: You want to download a shapefile that properly fits your data. In this case we are testing a Texas VTD file. This is trial and error, but it is important to have a shapefile that matches. In your downloads, drag and drop the .shx file onto the QGIS Canvas and it will show
Step 2: Next you have to find your data. In this case we are using the full 2018 General Election Returns. Load your CSV file into excel and save it as a Workbook. Make sure to always save your file on QGIS and Excel in case it crashes.
Read 14 tweets
Here are the 2018 general election results for Cook County Commissioner District 14. Scott Britton defeated 20-year incumbent Republican Gregg Goslin by 8%. With @Kevin4Cook in District 15, this turned the Cook County panhandle blue. Congrats @ironmen512! #ElectionTwitter #twill Image
Goslin saw his greatest strength in the west in Inverness - more conservative and secluded from the rest of the district. He also did well in Prospect Heights and eastern Arlington Heights in the middle, and Northfield/eastern Glenview in the east (think John Kasich Republicans).
Britton saw his strongest numbers in Northbrook, Wheeling, and Buffalo Grove (northeast to north central); had solid numbers in Palatine (west) and Glenview (southeast); and had decent numbers in western Arlington Heights (center). A strong performance all around!
Read 3 tweets
My contribution to keeping quarantined #ElectionTwitter sane: A Tour of the 50 States*

*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @HarryEnten @Redistrict @ecaliberseven @PoliticsWolf @uselectionatlas @DKElections @Center4Politics
I used Redraw the States to resize them all to 10-11 Electoral Votes (sans DC/3 & Los Angeles county/16).

Electoral College:
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221

Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40…
NB: Methodology: I combined results by year-sets e.g. 2012-16 (Sen), and 2013-16 (Gov).

I used the wonderful to pull county results going back to 1957 (i.e. stopped when Hawaii and Alaska were admitted as states + data quality issues that far back). 3/40
Read 42 tweets
Unfortunately I think Richard Burr has little incentive to resign.

He's already retiring in 2022. There will never be enough votes in the Senate to expel him. And he could rightly reason that the coronavirus news cycle is so chaotic people will forget about it by next week.
At the very least, Burr has a strong incentive to wait until July, when it's too late to schedule a special election, and see if things have cooled off by then.

If not, THEN he can resign, and his appointed GOP replacement can stay on until the regularly scheduled race in 2022.
(Help me out here #ElectionTwitter ... I think that's right but I'm not 100% versed in how special election scheduling law in NC works.)
Read 3 tweets
A friend who lives in Chatham County, NC took this picture outside of an early voting location today.

Those flags are not usually there - people drove in with them to do this.

#NCPol #ElectionTwitter #Primary2020 #chatham #NC
More photos from outside an early voting site in Chatham County, NC. (Photos were not taken by me, but by a friend who would rather not have their name made public.)
Additional photos from outside an early voting polling place today in Pittsboro, NC. (Photos were taken by a friend.)
Read 11 tweets
Hey #ElectionTwitter! I've been away for a bit learning and practicing GIS. Here's my first map I'm sharing: my friend @Kevin4Cook's 2018 primary victory for Cook County Commissioner District 15. Out of 23,502 votes, Kevin won by just 10 votes! Every vote matters! #twill Image
Here are the 2018 general election results for Cook County Commissioner District 15. A David v. Goliath battle against three-term incumbent Republican Tim Schneider, @Kevin4Cook won by 10% to become the first LGBT Cook Commissioner. Happy birthday, Kevin! #ElectionTwitter #twill Image
Special thanks to @cinyc9, whose GIS twitter guide and color scales have been indispensable to me. Thank you for all you've done!
Read 3 tweets
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets
Good morning, #GaPol and fellow election geeks! Another day, another state election board meeting in Georgia! Starting off-a state legislator who says the new rule on machines per voter subverts legislative intent. Great start to a cold wintry day!
A @GeorgiaStateU student and @GACollegeDems expresses serious concern over rollout - and notes that several counties have yet to receive their machines. Absentee ballots go out in 2 weeks. 😬
Numerous blind voters are expressing concern over accessibility-the printout is far too small, and right now the only verification method is reading the print-out. #CripTheVote
Read 23 tweets
How about some happy political news? Here are some updates. Two years ago I wrote about a retired librarian with a bad knee and 4 grandchildren, who had thrown herself into local politics for the first time after Donald Trump's election.
Tonight she was elected Vice-Chair of her Township Democratic Committee…
In March 2018 I wrote about the angry and inspired women who had found each other in deep red Westmoreland County (in the snow by the courthouse protesting the Muslim ban) and created a grassroots group that knocked hundreds of doors to elect Conor Lamb…
Read 15 tweets
Here is my assessment of Democrats' efforts to flip the Senate in 2020.

As you can see, @dscc nabbed a few great recruits that put the chamber in play, but there are also a few key missed opportunities that sorely stick out (see the lower right area).

cc: #ElectionTwitter
In particular, Stacey Abrams, Michelle Nunn or Jason Carter could have pushed either GA seat into Tossup territory, as could Beto O'Rourke or Joaquin Castro in TX.

MT could also have become a Lean R race with Steve Bullock, and KY could have with Rocky Adkins or Matt Jones.
But it's not all bad news for Dems!

They got perfect candidates in CO, AZ, and ME, passable ones in NC and IA, and good enough ones in KS and AK to make these usually very-red states possible wildcards.

KY and SC won't be competitive but could be money sucks for the GOP, too.
Read 3 tweets
I'm going to use this thread to discuss the results for Indiana as they come in tonight. I'll share any notable flips or key developments as they come in. You can follow along with the results at the following link. #ElectionTwitter
Initial questions for tonight: Will Dems be able to make pickups in the Indianapolis/Carmel city councils? Will Dems be able to hold onto power in fading blue collar cities like Kokomo and Anderson? Can Dems flip favorable cities like Portage and West Lafayette?
With 24% of the vote in for Logansport Mayor, Republican Chris Martin currently leads incumbent Democratic Mayor Dave Kitchell 1042-985 (51.4-48.6). Tough start in that race. This is a key race to watch.
Read 18 tweets
NEW (thread): North Carolina GOP recently passed new gerrymandered legislative districts. We filed an amicus brief you can read here proposing alternate nonpartisan districts for the court. These maps show the state Senate (GOP's map on left)… #NCpol #NCGA
These maps show the North Carolina GOP's new state House gerrymander (first map) & the two nonpartisan maps we proposed instead (our two are very similar to each other)… #NCpol #NCGA
Although the court barred using partisan data when drawing new maps, they didn't bar using it to assess the maps afterward, which we've done using 3 common measures of bias. New GOP remedial maps still have sizable bias. Our maps have a smaller GOP bias & are fairer #NCpol #NCGA
Read 14 tweets
Here's my first redistricting map I'm sharing on Twitter - a 2021 Illinois map with 17 congressional districts! It should pretty reliably elect 13 Democrats and 4 Republicans outside of red waves, and probably even then. #ElectionTwitter ImageImage
Here is where each incumbent lives:

1: Rush
2: Kelly
3: Foster
4: García (Lipinski/Newman)
5: Quigley
6: Casten
7: Davis
8: Krishnamoorthi
9: Schakowsky
10: Schneider
11: Underwood
12: Davis (Dirksen Londrigan)
13: OPEN
14: LaHood
15: Bost (Shimkus)
16: Kinzinger
17: Bustos
Here's partisan data (2008 - reliable for Chicagoland). Districts 1/2/4/5/7/8/9/10 should be safe. 3 gets tougher due to loss of Aurora, but Foster should be fine. Casten and Underwood get bluer seats; 12 should now favor us. 17 should be fine, but could get tough if open. Image
Read 5 tweets
One of my 2018 New Year's resolution was to learn Tableau. Waited until Dec., but I did it!

I decided to map DeKalb County, GA's performance for the 2018 governor's race.

Note that precincts moved and there have been county level inaccuracies. Receipt:…
Turnout in DeKalb surpassed the 2014 turnout of 53%, reaching 63% in 2018. 2016 turnout was 76%. The precincts with the highest turnout fall in the Decatur/Avondale and Northlake area. Convington Hwy had the lowest turnout at 26%. #gapol #electiontwitter…
No precinct in DeKalb reached 2016 turnout. If so, Stacey Abrams would be governor. Precincts in red are those with the lowest performance compared to 2016. Note that precinct boundaries changed. Stonecrest didn't exist in 2016. #gapol #electiontwitter…
Read 7 tweets
On Wednesday Malaysian voters for the first time ever elected a ruling Coalition that was not Barisan Nasional. The Pakatan Harapan + Warisan Sabah Coalition flipped the PRU13 seat totals, winning 122/123 seats depending on independents. /1 of analysis #ElectionTwitter
Turnout was an important factor in many analyses - with the assumption being the closer to 85% it got, the better PH's chances. The figure was originally, 76%, but was adjusted up today to 82%, ruining my scale. Turnout was correlated positively with PH support. /2
I said there were four key factors in this election - so let us take a look at them. 1 - How would the GS/PAS vote split? Well, it was largely concentrated in strongholds. In the northern swing areas though, it was a 3-way race, and they spoiled BN in Kedah, and PH in Perak. /3
Read 14 tweets

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