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Here's a comparison of 2008 and 2020 in Columbiana County, Ohio, a once politically-diverse county which trended heavily to the right in 2016 & 2020.

#ElectionTwitter Image
While Columbiana County has almost always been red, it has gotten much redder under Trump. This has had dire consequences for Mahoning Valley candidates, such as John Boccieri, who arguably lost his state senate seat solely due to how Republican Columbiana County had become.
The last Dem strongholds in Columbiana County were the union-dominated river cities of Wellsville & East Liverpool, both known for being at the center of global pottery & glassware production. Clinton still won a precinct in Wellsville in 2016 & came close in the other two. ImageImage
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🚨 What are the political consequences of pandemics? 🚨

D. Gingerich & I analyze history’s deadliest #pandemic in a brand new @World_Pol article: “Pandemics & Political Development: The Electoral Legacy of the #BlackDeath in Germany”

doi.org/10.1017/S00438…

#polisciresearch 🧵 Image
Brief summary (#TLDR): The Black Death (BD) had a significant long-term impact on Germany’s political development. Hard-hit areas introduced proto-democratic institutions; sustained experiences with participative government later helped reject antidemocratic & illiberal parties. Image
Long overview (starting here): In 1347, Europe was hit by a pandemic that killed 30–60% of its population: the BD. It had a major impact on medieval society which was based on feudalism/serfdom. Yet the BD’s impact varied greatly across space, leading to divergence in its impact. Image
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#ElectionTwitter(International)- Now, continuing the maps of the last two Presidential elections in Brazil: the Southeast, the most populated region in the country.
Versão em português do fio, thread, novelo, como vocês preferirem:
When foreigners think about a specific place in Brazil they are probably going to think about somewhere in the Southeast. Both São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are there. Between one third to half of the population of Brazil lives in the region (80 of 220 million).
Read 52 tweets
Thread:
Finished an ethnic map of the United States by zip code.
Germans dominate the Midwest, Mexicans the Southwest, African-Americans in the South, with a variety of other groups on the map too.
Insets (plus Alaska + Hawaii) below
#ElectionTwitter
(1/11)
Looking at the New England, the top groups are Irish, Italian, English, and French. Some Portuguese in the South Coast of Massachusetts, as well as Puerto Rican, African-American, and other minor groups (2/11)
NYC Area: A lot of different Asian, Hispanic, and European ethnic groups here (3/11).
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#ElectionTwitter The urban/rural divide is one of the prevalent divides in the United States. One way to measure it is by looking at a map of buildings. Comparing the over 130 million buildings to the 2020 results, the map not only looks beautiful but the similarities are clear.
FYI, this map took me about 8 hours to make virtually nonstop and took 40GB on my computer to process all the images, so a like and a follow would really be appreciated, and it motivates me to make more maps in the future! This one came out amazingly!!
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The growing Mid-Cities region between Dallas and Fort Worth surged to the left in 2020, helping to flip Tarrant County.

The Northern suburbs are growing quickly with white collar professionals, such as in Southlake (median household income of $240,000).
#ElectionTwitter
Note:
Median income is in 2019 dollars.
The cities vary greatly in their demographics.
Sources: OpenStreetMap, Tarrant County Election Archive, Census Quick facts
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#ElectionTwitter Some think of the Northeast as having little of a rural/urban divide, but it's still quite present. Comparing the number of buildings with the 2020 election results, it's clear there's a correlation, but there are still some of those quaint small liberal towns. ImageImage
The buildings map looks less like just a map and more like art, honestly; it's kind of touching and beautiful to me.
If you liked this map, then please consider following me! I publish (hopefully) great maps as frequently as possible, oftentimes daily!
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In 1956, Dwight Eisenhower broke Kentucky's nearly 30 year streak of voting Democratic in Presidential elections. Ike made large gains from his '52 showing in coal country and central KY. Ike's coattails flipped both senate seats, defeating majority whip Earle Clements.
Ike's surprisingly large win in KY was aided by Democratic infighting between new Governor Happy Chandler and Senator Earle Clements. Chandler contributed little to the party's efforts as his longtime rival, Clements, and a Clements ally were the two nominees for US Senate.
Longtime Rep. Bill Natcher saw his closest margin (by far) this year. His journals reveal his shock at the GOP wins and who he blamed. He writes that Ike's handling of the Suez crisis won over many newly enfranchised 18-20 year olds. Interestingly, he alleges mail ballot fraud.
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Detroit's blue-collar Downriver suburbs swung toward the Dems in 2020 (D+2). While Trump was able to plumb some votes out of Ecorse, River Rouge, Romulus and Rockwood, it was not enough to offset the gains in the larger suburbs. @michigeese_ @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa
Biden even managed to flip Allen Park, Wyandotte and Brownstone Township. He nearly flipped Riverview, too, with it going to Trump by only 0.3%, and Trump only carried Woodhaven by 2.5%. #ElectionTwitter
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Lansing had a 4-point swing towards the Dems in 2020, and overall turnout was up nearly 14% from 2016. Biden won 74% of the vote in the city to Clinton's 69% in 2016.
#ElectionTwitter @JMilesColeman
Ethnic minority areas didn't present as clear a pattern as in some other cities. The blackest precinct (southern end of Westside neighborhood) trended Biden, while more mixed (Hmong, Vietnamese and black) trended Trump. The most hispanic precinct trended Trump but by 1 point.
In Flint, Biden matched Clinton's level of support, but the third-party vote of 2016 seems to have largely drifted right, raising Trump's margin by about 3 points to get to...16% of the total vote.😁 Where Trumped 'gained' in some cities, it was mostly because of this.
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A guide to surviving #ElectionTwitter from the person who created the hashtag.
1. It was created to be an exchange of knowledge, ideas, and events from all walks of the election/political/mapping community. I just wanted to get people talking to each other.
2. Everyone’s welcome here, but try not to act like a jackass. This is a pretty diverse group of people, and we don’t agree on everything.
3. Adults targeting minors for any reason will get called out. Predatory behavior isn’t ok, and if you’re under 18 and being harassed, please tell someone on here and we’ll listen.
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New map that I made old-school in MS Paint. It shows county loyalty between the 2004 and 2020 races. In less than 20 years we've seen a lot of change. Light Red (Bush/Trump), Dark Red (Kerry/Trump), Dark Blue (Kerry/Biden), Light Blue (Bush/Biden). #ElectionTwitter
Alabama is the only state in the deep south without a single Kerry/Trump county. Tennessee and Arkansas had quite a few notable ones as you can clearly see.
The driftless area, eastern ohio - western pa, ky - wv - va Appalachia zone have been painful slow bleeds for Democrats, but they've made up for it with gains in suburbs and metros around Chicago, Atlanta, Philly, to name a few. Also California wow
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Thread #VVSG2
1. "The Election Assistance Commission on Wednesday voted to adopt the first comprehensive update to its voting system security guidelines in more than 15 years, concluding a lengthy process that ended with a mixed reception from some election security experts."
2. @SMART_elections wrote a letter to @EACgov that hundreds of others sent as well asking for a number of requirements,including:
- create a panel of technical election security experts, separate from NIST staff, with no financial relationship to vendors
smartelections.us/write-the-eac
3. Other items we asked for:
- The EAC must set and meet the goal that by the end of 2022 40% of the Technical Guidance Development Committee will be made up of technologists and individuals with technology expertise.
- require digital ballot images to be public records
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Thread on @washingtonpost article that mentions @SMART_elections extensively.
1. "Voting machines didn’t steal the election. But most are still terrible technology."

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
2. "a tech backwater, the voting machine industry has been sustained through inertia and sweetheart deals ... One hurdle to reform is that the industry is dominated by three players — Election Systems & Software...Dominion Voting (30 percent); and Hart InterCivic (15 percent)."
3. "ES&S, has seized on the moment to threaten members of SMART Elections, a journalism and advocacy group, with a lawsuit for spreading “false, defamatory and disparaging” information about one of its machines, the ExpressVote XL." smartelections.us/ess-problems#4…
#ElectionProtection
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#ElectionTwitter #Flapol here’s the 2010 Florida US Senate election if all Crist votes went to Marco Rubio. Rubio would win by an overwhelming 58.6% (R: 78.6%/D: 20.2%).

Rubio would win every county, even the African American majority county of Gadsden County. ImageImage
Meanwhile, here’s the 2010 Florida US Senate election if all Crist votes went to Meek. Meek would only win by just a 1% margin (R: 48.9%/D: 49.9%).

Meek would do well in Southeast Florida, the I-4, Big Bend, and Alachua County. ImageImage
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I have been analyzing the results from a number of Georgia Counties from the #2020elections. This began once I started realizing that the counties that gave David Perdue more votes than Donald Trump was hardly a random distribution.
#electiontwitter
So, in order to understand how David Perdue got more votes than Trump all happened without digging into the HUGE metro Atlanta counties, I compiled a list to research.
It narrowed down to 12: Atkinson, Clarke, Crisp, Dade, Early, Greene, Montgomery, Oconee, Pickens, Terrell, Walker, Whitfield.

Clarke is Athens (UGA) and a Democratic stronghold. Only large city on this list. It and Terrell were the only counties that voted Democratic here.
Read 23 tweets
Happy 2021 Election Twitter! As a special gift to my Illinois friends I present three new maps and a short thread below. Chicagoland is one of my new favorite regions to study politically. I hope you all enjoy the holiday! #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImage
IL6 - Drawn to be a Republican vote sink, the 6th is now becoming reliably Democratic. It's currently held by Democrat Sean Casten, who was just won a second term over Fmr St. Rep Jeanne Ives, who won only the Lake County portion. Casten's margin was slightly greater this year.
IL10 - Once the epitome of Lake County's traditional Republicanism, the 10th has since become solidly Democratic. The last Republican to hold the seat, Bob Dold, lost in 2016. Schneider, a moderate, has won easily in 2018 and 2020.
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Day 1: Illinois-3 - This year progressive Democrat Marie Newman significantly underperformed Dan Lipinski's bloated 2018 margin in the district. Please follow the thread below for detailed analysis of this fascinating Chicago-based district. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImage
It all began earlier this year when Marie Newman successfully defeated long-time Congressman Dan Lipinski in a primary rematch. Lipinski had served since his father's retirement in 2005 and had formed a record as one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus. Image
Lipinski's record was in many ways perfectly representative of the district's strong population of working class whites. (Ex cops, firefighters, and other union workers) He opposed abortion, and at first stood against same-sex marriage, but he always backed organized labor.
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I finished my crosswalk of 2016 to 2020 precincts over the holidays (apologies for posting a Xmas-inspired but not colorblind-safe version initially). A few things jumped out & led me down a rabbit hole of demographics & light plagiarism. Let's go! #ElectionTwitter 🧵1/?
When I initially did the municipal-level shifts map several weeks ago, some cities in the Eastern half of the state had a conspicuous red shift (Lebanon, Reading, Lancaster, etc.), & I was looking forward to diving deeper into those +Trump shifts... 2/?
These happen to all be cities with large Latino populations. Then @dawncai624 & @fordfess wrote a
great piece in the NYT looking at these trends in large cities across the US, so I'm going to look at our mid-size cities the same way... 3/?
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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Since I spent the time pulling it together, thought I'd share a rough projection of #Redistricting2021 with #ElectionTwitter (notwithstanding some uncertainty). 1/34

This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates. bleedingheartland.com/2020/12/23/iow… @DrRyanPhd
Getting the 1-seat states out of the way: 2/34
• AK-DE-ND-RI-SD-VT-WY: 4R-3D

Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
FL: 17R-12D 3/34

State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
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The Shenandoah Valley (as defined by the VA department of tourism) is pretty Republican area, but Joe Biden managed to crack 40% in 2020. He mainly did well in the cities of Winchester, Lexington, Staunton, and Harrisonburg (more maps in thread) #ElectionTwitter
Biden did about 7 points better than Obama in 2012, improving in the cities, and Augusta and Rockingham counties, while doing worse in Rockbridge and some of the northern counties
Both of these performances beat Kerry’s 04 numbers, but not in Rockbridge. I believe this is the last year where Republicans cracked 30 point margins Presidentially
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Ohio was a painful result for Democrats this year, and to help show why and compare it to other results, here's my concept of urbanized Northern Ohio. Biden won 3 counties with large cities (Cuyahoga, Summit, and Lucas), and lost Mahoning and Lorain #ElectionTwitter
Losing Mahoning and Lorain are significant because Clinton narrowly carried these 2 counties in 2016, and they had been going for Democrats by double digits in years prior and other races. Notably, Sherrod Brown carried both by wide margins in 2018 (more maps below)
Here's how Clinton did for visual comparison. Essentially, most of the area got redder in 2020, and Biden did exactly 1 point worse in 2-party vote share
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Alright gang, many of you know that I'm very for this district in North Carolina being made post-census. It fairly well encompasses my idea of Western North Carolina (though its by no means exclusive), so I made some maps of that for tonight #ElectionTwitter Image
Here's the recent Presidential election. Biden did well in Asheville and Boone in the district, and represented a dramatic increase from Clinton's 2016 share of the vote (next) (Note: all %s are in 2 party vote share) Image
These are first how Clinton did, and then the Dem vote percentage increase from 2016-2020. Biden did about 6 points better than Clinton, and increased margins across the board ImageImage
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STARTING MOMENTARILY:

"Arizona Kraken" case, oral argument on three Motions to Dismiss

(Most recent article: bit.ly/AZlaw1122)
Also, on a (very) related note:
EARLIER this a.m., we reported on the 1st Application for Attorneys' Fees in an Arizona election lawsuit. @SecretaryHobbs seeking $18k+ vs. @AZGOP for the 2% case.
bit.ly/AZlaw1124
Judge Humetewa asks parties to include arguments clarifying:
1) safe harbor date significance
2) who the heck the plaintiffs are - Trump electors, voters, lawmakers, etc
3) significance of Judge Warner's finding in State Court contest - awaiting AZ Supr Ct decision --PW
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