Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #electiontwitter

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🚨 BREAKING 🚨

PPUSA has officially partnered with @RRHElections to co-sponsor a poll of the upcoming TX-34 special general election!

Those who donate $10+ to our #ElectionTwitter crowdfunding effort will receive early access to final results.

Donate: gofundme.com/f/donate-to-rr…
Race Background

There are 4 candidates running in the June 14th special election to fill Filemon Vela's (D) vacancy:

(D) Rene Coronado - No Known Twitter
(D) Dan Sanchez - No Known Twitter
(R) Juana Cantu-Cabrera - @DoctoraJuanaCC
(R) Mayra Flores - @MayraFlores2022
If you're willing to donate to this effort (thank you in advance!), you can do so either at the GoFundMe link above, our website:

pollprojectusa.com/poll-crowdfund…

or direct via PayPal to RRH:

paypal.com/paypalme/RedRa…
Read 3 tweets
Kinda late but since Kentaji Brown Jackson is soon to be confirmed to the supreme I decided to make a comprehensive rundown thread of all the votes on supreme court nominees in 21st century! #ElectionTwitter #SCOTUS #SupremeCourt #KetanjiBrownJackson
Under Bush, four different supreme court nominations occurred. Although he withdrew two. The first was John Roberts was originally nominated to replace Sandra Day O’Connor but withdrew him when the chief justice, William Rehnquist died and instead nominated him for chief justice.
Nominated again on Sep. 6, 2005, he was a former member of Reagan’s Attorney General’s office and DC circuit judge, Roberts managed to garner broad, bipartisan support and was the last nominee to receive majority support from the party whose president didn’t nominate them.
Read 19 tweets
Imagine getting killed by your election opponent: that's what happened to former TN state senator Tommy Burks, who was murdered by Byron Looper a month before the election. With support from both Rs & Ds, Burks' widow Charlotte ran as a write-in and got 93% of the vote.

(1/2)
Charlotte Burks would go on to serve in the State Senate for four terms until her retirement in 2014. On the other hand, Looper was given a life sentence in prison with no chance of parole in 2000. He died there in 2013 of a heart condition.

(2/2, END)
Read 3 tweets
#ElectionTwitter Here's how Dwight Eisenhower performed w/ various demographics in 1952 (1/2):
Whites - 57%
Blacks - 33%
College educated - 66%
High School educated - 55%
Grade School educated - 48%
Professional & Business - 64%
White Collar - 60%
Manual worker - 45%
Farmer - 66%
1952 GOP vote (2/2):
Protestant - 63%
Catholic - 44%
Republican - 92%
Independent - 65%
Democrat - 33%
East - 55%
Midwest - 58%
West - 58%
South - 49%
It appears that I made a mistake with one of the figures. Eisenhower only won 23% of Blacks, not 33%
Read 3 tweets
In 2020, despite Ohio's 16th State Senate district going to Biden by almost 15 points on the presidential level, Republican state senator Stephanie Kunze won reelection in the district by a narrow 116 votes. In 2016, Kunze won by a solid margin.

#ElectionTwitter
Here's a gif showing the shift.
Read 3 tweets
As we enter the last stretch of the #CaliforniaRecall campaign, I ran my model again and Newsom is pulling away. Compared a week ago, my aggregate has moved another 1% towards Newsom. Again, I have a feeling, as this race is getting nationalized, Newsom is gaining ground. Image
Read 3 tweets
From 2018 to 2020, Ohio's 56th State House district went from solid Democrat to solid Republican, a swing to the right of over 55 points. The district is solid Republican on the presidential level.

#ElectionTwitter Image
Here's a gif showing the shift.
Read 4 tweets
Ok, as requested. I looked at @SKeshel analysis, which I will thread here.

All in all, pretty basic stuff. A lot of "this looks weird therefore it must be fraud."

1/*
Report starts with "Number of disputed ballots." Disputed by whom? There has been a ton of unsubstantiated speculation in this area with literally zero empirical evidence brought forth by those claiming disputed ballots.

2/*
Non-Citizen voters:
Keshel claims to have a survey of voters by Trump's legal team for the estimate of 36k to 237k non-citizens (that MoE).

They then go after the "fed-only" which was .4% of cast ballots in Maricopa (8,114). Here's how they broke

3/*
Read 10 tweets
From 2012 to 2016, Luzerne County, PA went from lean Democrat on the presidential level to solid Republican, a swing to the right of over 24 points. Prior to 2016, the county last voted for a Republican on the presidential level in 1988.

#ElectionTwitter
Here's a gif showing the shift.
Read 3 tweets
Time for some #OH11 mythbusting.

Leftists twitter is trying to say Shontel Brown only won because of white voters, which is simply inaccurate.

Attached is a chart that breaks down Nina Turner's margins according to the size of a ward/city's black population.

#ElectionTwitter
I've group the wards/cities into five categories:

Blue: Cities with large Jewish populations
Yellow: Other white suburbs
Orange: White Cleveland Wards
Purple: Black suburbs
Red: Black Cleveland Wards
While it is true Shontel Brown's best performance came from white cities with heavy Jewish populations, Nina Turner's best performances came from equally white parts of Cleveland (think urban hipster transplants)

But outside of these two groups it's less clear cut.
Read 7 tweets
In 2018, Arkansas voters voted on Issue 5, which would raise the minimum wage to $11 by 2021. Despite being a deeply Republican state, and re-electing their Republican governor by 35%, Issue 5 passed overwhelmingly, with almost 70% voting yes.
This second map shows how Trump in 2020 performed relative to the initiative. The initiative outperformed Trump statewide by 9%, especially in the northwest and delta. It also performed well in southern Arkansas. This goes to show how popular minimum wage increases really are.
Read 3 tweets
Arkansas was one of a few states to get more Republican in the 2020 Election. However, it’s not all red. This thread will examine the state’s five biggest cities, and how they voted in 2020. Image
Little Rock is the state capital, and Biden won it by 40%. It’s growth is slow, and it’s a very diverse city, with whites only having a narrow plurality. Unlike other diverse cities, though, Little Rock swung left a decent amount. Image
Fayetteville is only very narrowly the second largest city in Arkansas. It’s very white, but Biden won it by nearly 30% because it is a booming college town. Biden improved on Hillary’s win by almost 10%. Image
Read 7 tweets
#ElectionTwitter In this thread, I'll discuss the impact that the World Wars had on German-American voting patterns (fyi, this is an extremely long thread).
German Catholics voted overwhelmingly Democratic at the time, and were concentrated in places like eastern Wisconsin, Stearns county MN, Dubuque IA, Clinton county IL, Dubois county IN, Ellis county KS, and Putnam & Mercer counties in OH.
Protestant Germans tended to be Republican at the time, especially pietistic ones like Mennonites. The GOP did very well with these voters in places like North & South Dakota. Also, Gillespie county in Texas was staunchly Republican as a Unionist stronghold in the Civil War.
Read 20 tweets
#ElectionTwitter Here's a map that I made of Theodore Roosevelt's performance by county as the presidential candidate for the Progressive party in 1912. Roosevelt received 27% of the popular vote, which is the best showing for a third-party candidate in American history. Image
From comparing the 1912 results to the Free Soil Party's performance in 1848, it becomes apparent that Roosevelt won a lot of Yankee-settled areas in the Midwest that were Republican strongholds ImageImage
Roosevelt also did very well with Scandinavian voters, enabling him to win over 50% of the vote in counties like Kittson and Marshall in northwest Minnesota that were majority-Scandinavian, while also winning pluralities in the heavily Norwegian Lake Superior lowland in Wisconsin ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
1/4 I'm deleting this thread & redoing it for clarity since many folks are just ignoring what I wrote & reading something into it that I didn't intend. I'm not subtweeting you in particular or telling you what to do if that's not what you're here for, just friendly suggestions ImageImage
2/4 #ElectionTwitter folks do a lot of cool stuff that people want to see, & some of y'all have funny/interesting takes on non-election topics too. But if you tweet 100 times a day & 10:1 about the latter, it makes it hard for people with limited time to follow you for the former
3/4 All I'm saying: Be mindful of your audience if you want to build up a following & get your work more broadly seen, but if you don't care, just ignore! I stay more on topic between 7am-7pm eastern than on weekends & evenings. Readers using lists helps
Read 4 tweets
Here's a comparison of 2008 and 2020 in Columbiana County, Ohio, a once politically-diverse county which trended heavily to the right in 2016 & 2020.

#ElectionTwitter
While Columbiana County has almost always been red, it has gotten much redder under Trump. This has had dire consequences for Mahoning Valley candidates, such as John Boccieri, who arguably lost his state senate seat solely due to how Republican Columbiana County had become.
The last Dem strongholds in Columbiana County were the union-dominated river cities of Wellsville & East Liverpool, both known for being at the center of global pottery & glassware production. Clinton still won a precinct in Wellsville in 2016 & came close in the other two.
Read 5 tweets
🚨 What are the political consequences of pandemics? 🚨

D. Gingerich & I analyze history’s deadliest #pandemic in a brand new @World_Pol article: “Pandemics & Political Development: The Electoral Legacy of the #BlackDeath in Germany”

doi.org/10.1017/S00438…

#polisciresearch 🧵 Image
Brief summary (#TLDR): The Black Death (BD) had a significant long-term impact on Germany’s political development. Hard-hit areas introduced proto-democratic institutions; sustained experiences with participative government later helped reject antidemocratic & illiberal parties. Image
Long overview (starting here): In 1347, Europe was hit by a pandemic that killed 30–60% of its population: the BD. It had a major impact on medieval society which was based on feudalism/serfdom. Yet the BD’s impact varied greatly across space, leading to divergence in its impact. Image
Read 19 tweets
#ElectionTwitter(International)- Now, continuing the maps of the last two Presidential elections in Brazil: the Southeast, the most populated region in the country.
Versão em português do fio, thread, novelo, como vocês preferirem:
When foreigners think about a specific place in Brazil they are probably going to think about somewhere in the Southeast. Both São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are there. Between one third to half of the population of Brazil lives in the region (80 of 220 million).
Read 52 tweets
Thread:
Finished an ethnic map of the United States by zip code.
Germans dominate the Midwest, Mexicans the Southwest, African-Americans in the South, with a variety of other groups on the map too.
Insets (plus Alaska + Hawaii) below
#ElectionTwitter
(1/11) Image
Looking at the New England, the top groups are Irish, Italian, English, and French. Some Portuguese in the South Coast of Massachusetts, as well as Puerto Rican, African-American, and other minor groups (2/11) Image
NYC Area: A lot of different Asian, Hispanic, and European ethnic groups here (3/11). Image
Read 12 tweets
The growing Mid-Cities region between Dallas and Fort Worth surged to the left in 2020, helping to flip Tarrant County.

The Northern suburbs are growing quickly with white collar professionals, such as in Southlake (median household income of $240,000).
#ElectionTwitter
Note:
Median income is in 2019 dollars.
The cities vary greatly in their demographics.
Sources: OpenStreetMap, Tarrant County Election Archive, Census Quick facts
Read 3 tweets
In 1956, Dwight Eisenhower broke Kentucky's nearly 30 year streak of voting Democratic in Presidential elections. Ike made large gains from his '52 showing in coal country and central KY. Ike's coattails flipped both senate seats, defeating majority whip Earle Clements.
Ike's surprisingly large win in KY was aided by Democratic infighting between new Governor Happy Chandler and Senator Earle Clements. Chandler contributed little to the party's efforts as his longtime rival, Clements, and a Clements ally were the two nominees for US Senate.
Longtime Rep. Bill Natcher saw his closest margin (by far) this year. His journals reveal his shock at the GOP wins and who he blamed. He writes that Ike's handling of the Suez crisis won over many newly enfranchised 18-20 year olds. Interestingly, he alleges mail ballot fraud.
Read 7 tweets
Detroit's blue-collar Downriver suburbs swung toward the Dems in 2020 (D+2). While Trump was able to plumb some votes out of Ecorse, River Rouge, Romulus and Rockwood, it was not enough to offset the gains in the larger suburbs. @michigeese_ @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa
Biden even managed to flip Allen Park, Wyandotte and Brownstone Township. He nearly flipped Riverview, too, with it going to Trump by only 0.3%, and Trump only carried Woodhaven by 2.5%. #ElectionTwitter
Read 3 tweets
Lansing had a 4-point swing towards the Dems in 2020, and overall turnout was up nearly 14% from 2016. Biden won 74% of the vote in the city to Clinton's 69% in 2016.
#ElectionTwitter @JMilesColeman
Ethnic minority areas didn't present as clear a pattern as in some other cities. The blackest precinct (southern end of Westside neighborhood) trended Biden, while more mixed (Hmong, Vietnamese and black) trended Trump. The most hispanic precinct trended Trump but by 1 point.
In Flint, Biden matched Clinton's level of support, but the third-party vote of 2016 seems to have largely drifted right, raising Trump's margin by about 3 points to get to...16% of the total vote.😁 Where Trumped 'gained' in some cities, it was mostly because of this.
Read 9 tweets
New map that I made old-school in MS Paint. It shows county loyalty between the 2004 and 2020 races. In less than 20 years we've seen a lot of change. Light Red (Bush/Trump), Dark Red (Kerry/Trump), Dark Blue (Kerry/Biden), Light Blue (Bush/Biden). #ElectionTwitter
Alabama is the only state in the deep south without a single Kerry/Trump county. Tennessee and Arkansas had quite a few notable ones as you can clearly see.
The driftless area, eastern ohio - western pa, ky - wv - va Appalachia zone have been painful slow bleeds for Democrats, but they've made up for it with gains in suburbs and metros around Chicago, Atlanta, Philly, to name a few. Also California wow
Read 3 tweets

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