I don't spook easily. I was trained to do military analysis, specializing in East Asia -- China, North Korea, Vietnam. I am more worried today than at any point since 1994 DPRK nuclear crisis. US stands on the precipice of a catastrophic mistake on the Korean Peninsula.
Trump Administration is now CLEARLY marching toward war on the Korean Peninsula. Tonights plaintive op-ed from Victor Cha -- Trump's discarded Ambassadorial nominee -- makes plain that Trump plan to launch an attack on North Korea that is both unnecessary and poorly considered.
Unnecessary, because DPRK is today, and has been for past decade, DETERRED from attacking the United States and allies. North Korea is not suicidal, and the only circumstance in which the DPRK would use nuclear weapons against us is as a last gasp under determined US attack
Poorly considered, because the logic behind a "bloody nose" US attack on North Korea assumes that DPRK will respond "rationally" to a limited US strike, and NOT unleash a massive artillery, missile, and/or nuclear response.
IF DPRK is to be COUNTED ON to act rationally AFTER a US attack -- deterred by our nuclear arsenal -- why does that deterrence not work now?
Reality is that time is on OUR side with DPRK. We hold the cards. Sanctions are already imposing a cost. We can strengthen our defenses, enhance US and allied capabilities, interdict DPRK illicit activities, and win this conflict without firing a shot.
Americans must NOT be seduced AGAIN by a President who offers up a bogeyman supposedly posing an unacceptable threat to our security. Trump himself claims to have been against the disastrous Iraq war - a war based on lies and half-truths.
The American people know in their gut that North Korea is a small, weak country. The only way we end up in a war with DPRK is if WE start it. We won the Cold War by following a strategy rooted in optimism about our soft power capabilities and realism about our hard power.
If we could defeat the USSR without risking a nuclear exchange, surely we have it within our means to defeat North Korea. Trump's inept lurch toward war on the Korean Peninsula would be a march of folly.
Mansfield taught me not to impugn motives -- so I won't expound at length on the risk that Trump is interested in a WAR with North Korea to distract the nation from the Mueller investigation into the rot at the core of his campaign. But people should ask themselves -- why now?
Why is Trump beating war drums when his policy of "maximum pressure AND engagement" has only been in place for a few months and is arguably showing results? The whole POINT of Trump's policy is to persuade DPRK OVER TIME to change direction.
When a GOP, conservative, Bush White Houee veteran like Victor Cha (and his former boss Mike Green), former CINCPAC and DNI Admiral Dennis Blair, and former SecDef Bill Perry, ALL judge a military attack on North Korea to be folly, we should listen.
I know TWITTER democratizes; tends to honor ideas more than expertise. I am ok /that. But I take pride in 30 yrs of work - 10 in intelligence, 15 on Capital Hill, and 5 with NGOs including Amnesty International and Mansfield Foundation - on East Asian security and human rights.
I don't sound the alarm lightly. I've lived and worked through military crises before; 1994 DPRK, Tiananmen, civil war in Burma and Cambodia, insurgencies in Thailand and Philippines. We can prevent "Trump's Iraq," but only if the American people learn lessons from past mistakes
We are being manipulated by Trump - or at least he is trying. Tonight's SOTU, with emotional appeals on behalf of US college student and DPRK refugee, was classic propaganda -- demonize and dehumanize our enemy to justify the unjustifiable.
don't fall for it....
The DPRK has possessed nuclear weapons for a decade. As dangerous as that is -- and yes, we MUST have a long-term strategy to eventually denuclearize the Korean Peninsula - North Korea is today, and will be tomorrow, DETERRED by overwhelming US power.
The DPRK has possessed nuclear weapons for a decade. As dangerous as that is -- and yes, we MUST have a long-term strategy to eventually denuclearize the Korean Peninsula - North Korea is today, and will be tomorrow, DETERRED by overwhelming US power.
The American people should have CONFIDENCE in our military, and should never start a war that is unnecessary -- especially one that carries the very real risk of a catastrophic nuclear exchange that could claim the lives of millions.
