Trump began with incorrect understanding of WHY DPRK sought talks - attributing Pyongyang’s desire to negotiate to US max pressure campaign, when truth was more complex. Trump doesn’t do “complex.”
Error compounded In Singapore by Trump naïveté. washingtonpost.com/world/national…
Error compounded In Singapore by Trump naïveté. washingtonpost.com/world/national…
Anyone who actually READ the joint statement from Singapore knew it does NOT say why DJT claims it says - KJU did NOT promise to denuclearize. He promised to work TOWARD a “denuclearized Korean Peninsula” - with reciprocal obligations.
As a starting point for the denuclearization talks to follow, the Singapore Joint Statement was the WEAKEST of five DPRK historical pledges to disarm - far weaker than Clinton’s 1994 Agreed Framework (and btw, also FAR weaker than the Obama Iran deal that DJT trashed.)
Nonetheless. The Singapore Joint Statement provides an opportunity to pursue risk management - gradually reducing the North’s nuclear arsenal in exchange for reciprocal steps toward peace. But of course, this is not what trump promised or claimed he had achieved.
Trump now faces a rather unpalatable choice - flip flop back to threats/Max Pressure (having squandered his leverage by signaling success to the world, which has already relaxed sanctions), or play KJU’s game - negotiating for months (years) to achieve (at beat) modest results.
Wise choice is to talk. Trump’s bluster/threats were never going to get the job done. Danger is that DJT will feel betrayed, even though reality is that he never negotiated a deal. It was a mirage - a self-delusion by a self-proclaimed master deal maker and judge of character.
Arrogance of Trump convinced him that he had accomplished what his predecessors had not. I assume narcissists are prone to this, but I am no psychiatrist. Trump’s advisers knew better, but which of them would have dared tell him? Tillerson? McMaster? Yun? Thornton?(Gallows humor)
A few things we know with confidence, while much remains uncertain:
1) ROK and China will NOT resume “max pressure,” and without them, pressure campaign can’t work.
2) Trump decision to suspend joint exercises revealed to be huge blunder many of us said it was at the time.
1) ROK and China will NOT resume “max pressure,” and without them, pressure campaign can’t work.
2) Trump decision to suspend joint exercises revealed to be huge blunder many of us said it was at the time.
3) China now back in the driver’s seat. Xi Jinping will dictate much of what comes next on the Peninsula as USA leader is shown to be impotent, foolish.
Sigh.
Sigh.
