Thread by @Usherwood

Some notes from @whatukthinks speech at #BrexitPolling, despite his summary containing most of it: bit.ly/2DP69f5

Ppl a bit more economically pessimistic than post #EUref and some more concern, but not huge shifts

However, bigger shifts on quality of final deal, esp post #GE17, w falls in confidence

At same time, it is driven more by Leavers becoming more critical, than by Remainers

Novel data on how well EU is handling negots: UK voters are also increasingly critical. Faults seen on both sides of table

asking #EUref Q (or variants) again, still roughly 50:50, albeit w a bit of shift towards Remain

Lots of 'maybes' and 'perhaps' about a different outcome in a second #EUref: but remember most polls had Remain winning last time...

Most notable mvt is those who abstained last time now more inclined to now Remain, but churn all round

Turnout likely to be key issue in any 2nd #EUref, so impossible to call result

A degree of more politicisation, with a bit more CON-LAB split, but causes no clear: sorting, or changing minds?

Not much evidence for growing support for 2nd #EUref. Much hangs on wording

Many different types of #EUref2:
- deal/no-deal
- deal/stop A50
- deal/re-negotiate
- pure re-run of #EURef

All seen differently

References @LordAshcroft polling on #EUref2 variants: splits vary, w most support for deal/no-deal (across remain-leave groups)

Polling companies asking very different Qs on #EUref2, so treat w caution

So:
- voters are critical of everyone
- ltd evidence of swing to Remain
- inconsist evid on #EURef2
- UK still divided on Brexit

/end