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Stuart Lothian @StuartLothian
, 32 tweets, 14 min read Read on Twitter
Among reasons for opposing Brexit is UK's unpreparedness for such a huge change! Unless we stop this now, the purported benefits may be less than pre-sold? and the warned downsides may well be worse? If either or both? our public finances could implode under self-imposed strain.
Consider UK's low productivity relative to our G20 peers - well publicised but poorly understood? Improving 'this' over a sustained period would surely have been preferable pre-requisite prior to anything as profound as Brexit!
Look at UK's ballooning national debt, which has 'more than quadrupled' since John Major left office in 1997. Ask any ordinary Jo if they'd fancy racking up such a huge mortgage? (ours is £2 trillion) before resigning a job to venture into business on their own!
Misunderstanding interest rate cycles has been the downfall of many a firm. The time to pay down debt is when interest rates are historically low, not when they are rising. UK has (so far) squandered this chance and now faces much greater debt service costs on hugely more debt!
UK's balance of payments deficit & visible trade gap have defied expert analyses for eons. We regularly buy more £'imports than we make £'exports. Although mitigated by invisibles (insurance & financial services etc.) there IS a huge imbalance NOW which Brexit would only worsen!
Sterling weakness post #Euref vote 'should?' help UK exporters (to EU & RoW) while detering goods imports from EU & RoW. However, unless UK exports grow sustainably, the impact of weaker sterling simply stokes inflation - so endemic is our reliance on imported goods/food etc.
Higher UK inflation recently prompted the first interest rate rise since Mark Carney joined @bankofengland. Further rate rises seem likely. Government debt is inevitably becoming more expensive to service, making debt reduction harder. Not a great backdrop to an unplanned Brexit!
With HMG seemingly committed to lower taxes post Brexit? (if we leave EU) it seems unlikely the deficit will ever be reduced? impacting both borrowing costs & scope for public expenditure. Stoking an export drive on WTO terms from G20's weakest productivity won't be at all easy!
As @hmtreasury knows, business investment has been constrained post Credit Crunch & #Euref by lack of visibility/confidence. This drags down UK productivity, going into the export drive we SO badly need, IN or OUT of EU. Triggering #A50 was the ultimate example of Unpreparedness!
Amalgam of low productivity, high state & consumer debt, low investment, high trade gap, low business confidence, high political risk - hardly smacks of the 'strong & stable Govt' we would have needed to underpin any semblance of preparedness for Brexit!
UK waiting on @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords to get the 'least bad outcome' from the unpreparedness of HMG's implementation of the public's marginal Brexit vote. 'Time' is a luxury they don't have - with #A50 expiry just 16 months away. We MUST retain the #A50 revocation option!
#Budget2017 shows UK now has less room for fiscal manoeuvre with GDP% growth forecasts trimmed by @OBR_UK & National Debt still v high! It's arguable that we shouldn't pay more severance to EU than would be justified by trade deal benefits less valuable than we presently enjoy.
Over-hasty acceptance of a simplistic binary instruction from a mis-led Public has led this under-funded HMG to the mess we're ALL now in. Having seen our economy slow markedly, we're now on the verge of over-paying for LESS than we have NOW from EU. Unpreparedness at its worst!
The unprepared cost-consumptive rambling horror story of Brexit would have been axed in the real world. No nation pays more to gain a worse arrangement than it already enjoys! UK Public were badly misled. We're now reliant on Lords with real world experience like @Lord_Bilimoria.
As stated above - our public finances could conceivably implode under the strain of a rushed & costly Brexit. The UK will be poorer for sure, together with most of its citizens! Where did this appear on the #Euref ballot paper?
UK lawmakers face a huge challenge, arguably the gravest in our peacetime history - that of undoing the gross self-harm of Brexit. Our parliament IS sovereign. Our lawmakers can and should rise to the challenge of putting the National Interest above anything else!
Principled politicians across parties eg @vincecable @thomasbrake @Anna_Soubry @NickyMorgan01 @ChukaUmunna @DavidLammy should be applauded for standing up for what they believe to be in OUR Nation's interests, despite Brexit Bullys - whose behaviour tells us loads about Brexit!
In the context of a wide range of crucial financial, economic & trade indicators (see above) - UK is monstrously unprepared for a coerced, chaotic & costly Brexit. Against such huge headwinds, we'd need a wholly compelling reason to be doing this, now! BTW, What IS that reason?
Don't cite Will Of The People! That changed months ago per @YouGov. #GE2017 was a failed attempt by @theresa_may to seal her Brexit mandate. Given the mixed message from UK Voters to @Number10gov she ignores the Majority of @UKLabour voters still backing #Remain. So WHY do this?
UK can't continue in this vacuous vein for very much longer. Someone sane has to hit hard on the door of 10 Downing St. and deliver a robust 'Reality Check' - Chambers def: "A reminder of the true, as opposed to the imagined, state of affairs". We deserve SO much better from HMG.
You won't hear this on @BBCNews, but the financial & reputational damage of Brexit is now so huge and growing that UK has come to resemble a hardened gambler on an unprecedented losing streak. This won't end well unless we #exitfrombrexit - or shake that magic money tree again?
As outgoing Social Mobility & Child Povery Commission Chair, @alanmilburn1958's comments go to the very heart of why SO many people voted Brexit, and why it must be stopped ASAP to return appropriate attention & resource to the real issues confronting the UK in 2017 & beyond.
Or has it been the covert Blukip Brexit plan all along? Get the poor to back it, then cut them off at the knees & progress inequality, benefit cuts, tax-dodging, radically reduced State, for the few not the many, pull the ladder up, block the hatch - far right dawn? Is that it?
If Alan Milburn is correct in his close-up view of Mrs May's thinking, then she must be feeling hugely conflicted by where we are - trying to deliver Brexit without the colossal collateral damage it has already caused, which is but nothing compared to what's to come, if we do go!
Has been blindingly obvious since day 1 that Brexit, as half-baked presented, was never going to work. Said as much on #BrexitRejection when starting that 12 months ago. Knew it would get bad, and hoped we'd realise pre-#A50 trigger. Sadly not! It's been downhill ever since......
...... so this difficult bullet must be bitten, very soon. Brexit needs stopping before it takes our whole Nation down with it. Parliament must step up to the mark and grasp this nettle, at EVERY coming opportunity. This has started, but SO much more is needed to #exitfrombrexit
It's been revealing to take a quick dip back into the #BrexitRejection thread! How little has changed? Except the then foreseen damage and #Brexodus - both of which have grown & grown, since we flagged them pre Lanc.Ho. But now #ExitFromBrexit moves centre stage. It can't not!
In this interview, Tony Blair makes the case for confronting UK's real problems by first stopping Brexit.… Sadly, HMG's illogical rush to leave EU?SM?CU? will do NOTHING for most of those who gave our Hard Right #Blukip the slim mandate they craved! Tragic!
Remainers @acgrayling @JolyonMaugham @IanDunt & trade deal experts @GuitarMoog @tony_nog have long voiced serious concerns about the undemocratic? illogical? illegal? way HMG is 'doing' Brexit. Some have called such critiques disruptive? It's quite a feat to disrupt utter chaos!
I have every sympathy for N.Ireland and indeed for Eire's stated needs from this #Brexitshambles - a mess not called for by EITHER, but we should note that there are nearly 2 EU nationals living in the UK for every inhabitant of NI. Big picture please!
In tonight's turmoil, we should all spare a thought for the waiting millions of hard-working law-abiding tax-paying EU Nationals living in the UK - on whom we depend for their many contributions to this country, their country! They too need a fair and unambiguous deal!
HMG has cruelly disregarded the interests of most of UK for far too long! This has been an ill-judged, myopic & totally unprepared Brexit, from the outset, which would only ever have benefitted the few, not the vast majority seeking fair/sane leadership - in the National Interest
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