Thread by @fascinatorfun

1/. I’m afraid you are mistaken. We anticipate most countries will want to agree Treaties (but it isn’t simply a cut and paste job as Fox suggested, see thread below)..

Because of the way the Treaties are drafted ALL will need amendment, discussion exchange of docs. Work/Time

2/. We already know from Select Committee evidence that some countries have already said they either want to renegotiate terms to improve them. (I’ve been expecting that as the balance in power of our respective negotiating positions has changed).
Eg Brazil, Chile, Peru, S Africa

3/. Then there are the countries like S Korea where they want to see what the form of the EU U.K. agreement might be before they agree the shape of the deal. (I’ll return to that)

4/. In any event once you open up the schedules of the agreements it soon becomes evident that they don’t fit our changed status as a 3rd country (hence me and so many others saying far FAR better to extend A50 notice in which case still an EU country. Same terms.

5/. As it stands if we merely replicated the Treaty S Korea would be able to sell cars, to us but we would not to them because we don’t meet the Rules of Origin test in the schedules.

We’d have to vamp up car part production to increase the % of U.K. parts.

6/. Alternatively we could strike a deal where a series of countries agree diagonal accumulation of parts so that parts made n any of those country can accumulate to meet the %. That may well be possible but is more tricky & time consuming.
.

7/ This sort of work has to be done product by product, schedule by schedule. It takes time, in-depth knowledge of respective markets expertise and will (& remember, for many this won’t be the most important piece of work for them as other countries already have Trade deals.

8/. They already have a planned schedule of trade deal work and a limited number of people to do it.

For instance NZ typically will schedule a max of 4 Treaties a year (& these may well extend over several years) plus 4 reviews. We have hundreds and 168 countries.

9/. We also have to set up the critical Regulatory Agencies and customs systems that will be required as a cornerstone of the Treaties. That takes time and often expertise that is in very short supply. Scarily so in some instances (eg nuclear and medicines)

10/. To give a little taste of product schedules this gives a tiny taste of just some in 1 Treaty (sticking to S Korea)

threadreaderapp.com/thread/9231567…

11/. Over and over again. Remember that although we had experienced personnel in our Department of trade we had no need for experienced International Trade Negotiators (there is a world shortage of high level ones). We pooled costs and expertise with the EU that has close to 90

12/. Then there are the “whatever you give to one country you will offer to us” clauses (shorthand MFN clauses, Most Favoured Nation).
So, where the EU has struck broad and deep trade treaty some have agreed this clauses.

This is important re services that feature little in them

13/. These feature in S Korea, Canada, Japan to name but some.

It explains why the EU keep saying CETA maybe with some personalisation but not Services. If they open it up to us, then they have to do the rounds with ALL relevant treaties and that changes the balance of trade.

14/. This is a neat and information packed little Podcast from the excellent PIIE Institute if you want to learn a little more.

This concentrates on the proper trade treaties.

15/. But there are hundreds of Treaties more dealing with customs, transport, nuclear, Ag, Fisheries, Mutual Redogition easing NTBs on WTO terms.

piie.com/experts/peters…

16/. This explains why countries like S Korea and Canada are waiting with anticipation for what we get from the EU as that shapes what THEY can then ask FROM the EU..and also determines what they might want to agree with us.

17/. It isn’t that this is not solvable with plenty of time and plenty of experienced personnel.

We have neither. In fact by setting that blinking clock ticking we have managed to put ourselves in a uniquely weak negotiating position.

18/. We could be alone in the world of NO DEAL. ZERO WTO countries in the world have no deal with neighbours to fall back on. Even Mongolia (the last to strike deals now has some PTAs).

This is why p, when I hear people urging the Govt to walk away without a deal I:-

19/. When the EU & Govt say nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, they are merely reflecting the factual realities of trade negotiations that can fail at the last hurdle (or mid point) because an issue that is critical (eg liabilities or caps) simply can’t be agreed.

20/. The challenges in the even of no deal for other countries would be problematical. However the challenges for us are pretty catesteophic as we have no fall back. We haven’t even The IT systems or people in place and trained to cope.

21/. Critically the EU already know this. They are the ones that already negotiated this whole raft of over 1000 Treaties (759 applying to us/ 168 countries).

It was only when I took a good look at the EU database of treaties that I grasped the scale of the problem.

22/. Some much more important than others.
But the time, expertise & the sheer scale of the balancing act is huge. Hence me begging my MP NOT to trigger A50 and set that damn clock ticking until we had the plans, personnel, specifications for IT systems, agencies all mapped out

23/. I strongly suspect that this was privately met with an eyeroll when my back was turned. “Can’t be true.”

HOWEVER expert evidence has repeated these issues. Solvable? Probably. In time? Nope.

Hence the admission finally by anyone we any sense WE need transition.

24/. Did you know that HMRC are having to specify and commission 4 different types of systems because they do not know what end shape Brexit will take?

Specify, procure, test, implement, debug and with c250,000 users many of them new. Who also don’t know what forms to complete.

25/. Who do not know what costs to build into the contracts they are entering into now for next year, whether or what tariffs to apply, what customs and VAT forms will be required or what Certification from which regulatory agencies are required.

26/. So when the Redwoods, Rees Moggs, Bones, Martins of this world peacock strut about saying “walk away without a deal” tell them to sling their hook as they are sodding negligent and have zero love of country...just themselves and their massive egos.

27/. There is a reason why David Davis (correctly for once) said this was more complicated than landing a space ship on the moon). And a reason why that project was planned (relying on experts) over 9 years before they launched.

28/. Separating ourselves from the EU trading network is the trade equivalent of separating conjoined twins.

It require a lot of time, preparation, care and skill. Humility not arrogance.

29/. Not much of that on show for these utter charlatans that appear to have been gifted responsibility for decision making on our behalf.

We need a long extension to A 50 notice urgently. (& that requires unanimous consent from the EU27)

30/ Rant over!!!!!

The excellent @CoppetainPU has just expanded on S Korea as just one example of work to be undertaken over & over again.
Assuming we’ve Reg Agencies

Canada, CETA, for instance has “reservations” that stretch to several hundreds of pages to be revisited.

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/gra…