1. They knew each other for years before Trump made Manafort his Campaign Manager. (They lived in the same building—Trump Tower—for years.)
2. The two kept speaking by phone for at least six months after Trump fired Manafort.
So it's not clear what in the *world* would make Trump or Manafort optimistic about Manafort's chances.
1. Pardon him.
2. Fire Mueller (and then, likely, get impeached).
Manafort has only *one* card to play, based on public information:
1. Wait for Trump to pardon him.
And we know this:
1. Trump's confident Manafort won't flip.
And he *also* knows he's a primary Mueller target—so he can't "flip" for a deal unless and until he can *deliver Trump to Mueller*.
1. There's a good chance Trump is tampering with Manafort.
2. Trump thinks Manafort can incriminate him.
3. Manafort doesn't trust Trump.
4. Manafort will flip.