1/ I've been pretty sarcastic and negative about the prospects for the #MaySpeech #RoadToBrexit later today. The "5 tests" (that aren't tests) that she will mention are horribly bad for example: huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/ther…
2/ But one thing caught my eye. "Theresa May to use her Brexit speech to say 'we can't have everything', Grayling says" is the title of The Guardian's live blog by @AndrewSparrow.
3/ The relevant entry is this one: theguardian.com/politics/blog/… Apparently the BBC's Laura Kuennsberg thinks the PM will be honest with the public and deliver hard truths.
4/ I assume the Government still aims to leave the Single Market and Customs Union. So if May *were* to be honest, to deliver hard truths, here's a list of what she would have to say.
5/ First, Brexit will make all Britons poorer, at least in the short and medium term. Indeed, to some extent, it already has.
6/ Second, some major industries will move their production from the UK, and jobs will be lost. Passporting will be lost, so some City jobs will move (and tax revenues to the Treasury will fall).
7/ Third, doing business will the rest of the EU will become harder once the transition phase ends, as standards diverge and taxation (VAT) rules change.
8/ Fourth, freedom of movement for Brits will end. It will be harder to retire to the Costa del Sol.
9/ Fifth, the cost of products on supermarket shelves will rise, as the pound will fall, driving up cost of imports, and local production will not compensate - not least due to lack of farm labourers.
10/ Sixth, there is no Brexit dividend whatsoever, and indeed for at least a decade leaving the EU will cost the UK more than being in it - because replicating all the EU's agencies and functions will take a lot of time and money.
11/ Seventh, trying to strike trade deals with the rest of the world will not offset the trade lost with the EU.
12/ Eighth, all of this will necessitate some border infrastructure in Ireland - a completely open border will be abandoned.
13/ Those then would be some hard truths. Can you imagine May delivering any of those? No, me neither. #Brexit
