Thread by @Usherwood

The morning after the day before thread on #RoadToBrexit speech:

1/

Circumstance meant I didn't get to indulge in the tweet-fest y'day afternoon, so I'm making a virtue of that and reflect on the impression w a bit more distance

2/

Run-up: this differed from Lancaster Hse or Florence in that there was less run-up (in time), but lots more associated activity.

3/

This meant lots of speeches from Cab Mins, after Cabinet discussion. Before, May has worked w v.sml circle, so this opening up is notable

4/

Reflects how things have moved on in Art.50 negots, in May's authority, and in need to keep ppl involved

5/

Timing: still think the timing stinks. Yes, it's before March #EUCO, so imp to set out a view, but letting everyone else get their view in wasn't helpful

6/

Even the @Sime0nStylites view - that going last in this round means she can mop up the bits - didn't really happen: didn't read anything in text that cldn't have been said a month ago

7/

Location: in passing, I'll note that this was speech most directed to EU, so ironic to do it in UK, when Florence was so UK-focused. Makes me think fancy locations shld be saved for exceedingly obvious situations

8/

Content: this is the big one. And for once, there was content to consider

9/

As several have noted, in content terms, this shld have been made a year or more ago. Mapping out basic compromises and indicating areas of activity wld have informed agenda

10/

However, still a lot of waffle. Of the five tests, the only one w any meaning is the first and even that only to extent that UK shld leave the EU (not on what terms)

11/

Tests are a popular trope, because pretty much any outcome can be fitted to them, so politicians can tick off a big box at the end. But they offer no help during the process

12/

However, on substance, we're seeing a bit of a collapse of red lines into a more coherent whole.

13/

Key one is still ECJ, but there's now recognition (and communication) that to be part of any part of EU activity means exposure to ECJ

14/

Of course, calls for sectoral work has fingerprints of Cab colleagues adding stuff in, ironically helping May to advance the soft Brexit agenda she seems to want

15/

And for me, that's the big message: reading speech cold, the position is to make as close as possible

16/

This has been an emergent thread of recent weeks: the potential to diverge, rather than actual divergence

17/

Might be that No.10 think this is way to square circle of leaving without too much disruption

18/

But as with much clever-clever thinking it ignores the elephant in the room: the EU

19/

As several of you have already replied to comment, it's all well & good May saying what she wants, but Art.50 is also (indeed, more) about want EU wants

20/

Reaction so far has been polite, rather than enthused. It's nice to have some detail, but it's still a long way from enough

21/

Particular points of concern exist:

- Ireland was only briefly mentioned, w no substantive ideas and language that wasn't as robust as before. For a gvt trying to avoid Option C, that's odd

22/

- role of ECJ remains v.confused. The impression is of a UK Gvt caught in a big semantic trap and looking for some fig-leaf mechanism (to which EU will respond: why bother w a fig-leaf?)

23/

- the 3 baskets thing still doesn't fly. EU cld help on this by saying that it means lots of interlocked blocks of legislation (stop 1 bit of FoM means losing the whole thing), but frankly it runs so counter to structure of EU work that, again, why go down that road?

24/

Remember that EU is currently finalising Phase 2 mandate for #EUCO. EU27 also haven't got far in their thinking on final state, so upshot might be to be vague

25/

And this is final point. End-state is a bit of a distraction

26/

For Art.50 purposes, key priority is transition: get to March 19 w a deal and a framework in which end-state negotiations can run while things tick over

27/

HMG is very much not kicking the sleeping dog of transition (nor are EU27), as getting that tied down in March #EUCO is vital task

28/

No.10 might well be happy to take heat on end-state if it allows getting to transition deal. There's less time pressure there

29/

So, to pull it all together.

30/

#RoadToBrexit was at lower end of what it cld have contained, but generally a step towards a more mature negotiating position by UK. Proof will be in whether it carries over to mvt w EU for March #EUCO

/end