So what can we say back in the real world? /1
In summary, the EU will NOT give the UK an all-UK customs backstop. But it WILL agree to an all-UK customs arrangement in the future relationship document.
This didn't fly./2
It's worth remember that the EU, having always said UK can have a CU, is now facing reality of that. /6
So where does that leave Ireland? And the political issue of passing the backstop? (agonisingly, like some kidney stone) /7
Hence the extra offer of another year of transition, which makes it more certain that this temporary Customs Union is up and running, so the backstop isn't needed. /8
But how to access that space, given the state of UK politics? /10
But there is a counter-narrative to that... /11
We saw the Chequers backlash, what would this be? /12
Already May/Hammond are saying UK would honour its commitments and pay the bill.
Then the EU would have to decide which version of its 'no deal' plan to implement. /13
Still, we're a ways off that point now. First we wait and see how Barnier plays it... /14
Or put turn it back to May: make a move, or we'll see you in December? 15/ENDS