Thread by @nicktolhurst

1/ A small thread on why BOTH many Remainers & Leavers still havent "got" that #Brexit has already failed...
....even if it goes ahead.
& why its often "media noise" rather than "actual lies" is obscuring this & the fact that Brexit wont happen as we thought it would 2 years ago.

2/ Basic Leave idea pre #Brexit vote was that a prosperous UK with large trade deficit eager to retain many European standards wld not really offer a threat to EU was not completely implausible as many remainers assumed.
But it depended on....

3/ Basic #Brexit idea was to convince EU that with a bit of compromise & British payments UK cld leave single mkt but retain full access to it while it worked out its future. Indeed many sensible Leavers didnt want radical change overnight..however there was one small problem....

4/ This made sense so long as - & this is crucial - EU accepted an emcompassing trade deal allowing for no real change in trade borders (this also explains why Leavers underestimated/had no polivy for the N Irish border issues).
This was implicit in Leaver ideas pre #Brexit vote.

5/ Leaver strategy didnt thus envisage change to Customs at ports like Dover. Leaver's mistake tho was to be so confident they did not make even a half attempt to address borde issue post vote (quite ironic given that vote was seen as about borders).
This was a crucial mistake.

6/ Without work on borders UK Govt, despite "hard #Brexit rhetoric" (that scared remainers & inspired Leavers) was signalling to EU it not only expected a deal - it cld only have one strategy - a deal.
Talk of "no deal" was for UK media but was, thru UK actions, tech. impossible.

7/ Longer this went on less EU needed to do anything but set out what it wanted. If UK'd been serious about #Brexit it wld have set up a whole host of agencies & massively overhauled customs & borders.

In effect by 2018 UK govt had already given up on a hard brexit in action.

8/ So where does this leave us now?
UK must accept CU + something like single Mkt or it must start convincing EU its prepared for hard border brexit.

As Irish border issue flares up this seems more & more unlikely.

But UK "committed" to brexit so what now?

9/ OK hold on this is strange...UK will commit to #brexit while hiding as much of brexit as possible - there is no other solution except remaining in EU (& this depends on politics).

So what will this new relationship look like?....

10/ UK will align with EU on regulations, will join something like a CU, will make payments exceeding £50Bn, respect all resident EUers rights/residence.
In effect UK will do a "no-Brexit Brexit".

There is simply no other solution which is possible without radical change.

11/ You simply cant leave a CU+SM & leave Dover & other ports unchanged, The same goes for NIreland.

Its not politics -its technically impossible.

Thats why for all the UK media talk of "EU negotiations" - there arent negotiations. Ppl find this hard to belive but its true....

12/ Negotiations take place when both sides trade - but UK has nothing to offer except more cash. The EU knows what the UK wants, its a better version of status quo which EU doesnt even have to pretend to give as UK has no fall bak option..

So why is #Brexit talk so tense in UK?

13/ To return to start many leavers & remainers havent clocked this. They're stuck in 2016. But that #Brexit is gone.

Even if Rees-Mogg somehow was PM it wdnt change anything - wld he spend billions reinventing a hard border self regulating UK?

No. So whats the ERG playing at?

14/ hard brexit tory leaders are playing a long game to wrap as much of their policies into final brexit situ & deal as possible while letting May/remainers take the blame for the "sell out".

They want to retain as much freedom as possible in post brexit settlement.

15/ "media noise" on this is merely a proxy war betwn different Tory factions to determine the landscape within the framework the EU allows it.

For obvious reasons they cant admit this.

But they know as everyone else shld that "real" #brexit already failed.

Its gone.

(/ENDS)

EXTRA Tweet/

Also explains why EU insisted transition phase so short.
A 5yr transition might give UK time to set up a #Brexit plan/infrastructure changes.

Due to final deal coming Jan2021 UK has no time to engage with this. Transition merely status quo - maybe also final deal.