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Tom Randall @tsrandall
, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Electric cars are beginning to displace a small, but measurable, amount of oil on the global market. This is the beginning
BNEF estimates that in 2018, EVs will displace about 48,000 barrels of oil a day. That's a lot of oil, but it's just a tiny fraction of global consumption—some 100 million barrels/day. But there's more
Five years ago, virtually no one in autos or energy markets were taking EVs seriously. In 2015, the CEO of ConocoPhillips told me it may take another 50 years for electric cars to have a material impact on oil demand—not on his watch. Things have changed
Norway is about to become the first country to have >50% EV marketshare. Norway is an oil country. It's also a very wealthy country, with good incentives, but as battery prices continue to fall, you're going to see the same transition everywhere else. Everywhere.
It's not just rich countries. Check out BNEF's oil displacement by region. China is now the world's leader in taking fuel-burning cars off the road. These are cheap EVs in every class, from ultra-compact to city buses and semis
And if you swing back up to the first chart in the thread, you'll see that oil displacement is increasing extremely quickly—70% a year and rising. When I made this video in 2016, I modeled 50% and a lot of people thought I was crazy…
Also, if you look at a lot of forecasts out there, people still aren't including light duty trucks and heavy duty trucks. Why not? Whether you think Tesla Semi will succeed, that thing is an absolute beast and shows what's coming
And what about poor countries? They obviously can't afford a 50k Tesla or Jaguar iPace. But the price drops in EVs will make them *more* attractive, not less in poor countries. It will take time, but it's starting in China. Total cost of ownership will matter a lot
Cities and countries are already beginning to set target dates for banning internal combustion engines—because not only are they bad for climate change but they're terrible for human health. Car companies are starting to get it, committing tens of billions in the next five years
So while 48,000 barrels/day may not seem like much in the context of today's oil markets, it's worth taking note that in 2018 oil displacement by EVs is now a very real, and very important, metric that people are looking at. -30-
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