Thread by @C4Ciaran

That ComRes/Express poll 📈🤔..

‘No Second Referendum says poll’

Does it?

The referendum result was:
🇬🇧Leave 52%
🇪🇺Remain 48%

But in 2016 participants in the ComRes poll voted:
🇬🇧Leave 49%
🇪🇺Remain 37%

In the poll Leave has a 12% advantage over Remain. In reality the margin was 4%.

Let’s examine that claim again

Only 35% ‘want’ a second referendum.

Sounds like a big dip in Remain support until you realise only 37% of respondents voted Remain.

🇪🇺In fast the poll shows roughly the same % support a second referendum as the % of Remain voters in the poll.

As for the claim that 65% oppose a second referendum.

That wasn’t what ComRes asked.

They asked if the result should be ‘respected’.

Asking people to ‘disrespect’ the result is a very different thing to asking them if they would like the final decision on whether we leave the EU.

How do we know? Because ICM asked the latter in Jan and found 47% to 34% in favour of a second poll:

Basically:
1. Support for a second referendum depends on who you ask and what you ask them.

2. A poll based on larger than representative Leave support will obviously produce larger than representative Leave outcomes.

But then that doesn’t look as good on a front page.