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Glen Peters @Peters_Glen
, 8 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
THREAD: Yes, 1.5°C is possible with low BECCS...

A new @NatureClimate paper from @DetlefvanVuuren & the @IMAGE_PBL team shows that there are alternative pathways to 1.5°C with less negative emissions. (the blue areas get small in the bottom right figure)

nature.com/articles/s4155…
The alternative pathways include lifestyle change, additional reduction of non-CO₂ GHGs, & more rapid electrification of energy demand based on renewable energy. Some of these alternative may not be easy to implement, but they are additional tools to add to the toolbox!
Important points for me
* Options with low non-CO₂ seem to have the biggest impact (LoNCO2)
* None of the options get rid of BECCS alone
* Combined the options have bigger impact
* Less BECCS means more space for afforestation (or food or ...)
It is worth emphasising that non-CO₂ has a big effect on the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C. Less non-CO₂, (slightly) more CO₂ can be emitted. Long standing problem on how to best compare CO₂ & non-CO₂ both physically & economically.
doi.org/10.1038/s41558…
The CO₂ emission pathway in all scenarios is about the same (top), as is the share of low-carbon sources in primary energy (bottom right), but the energy system can be quite different (bottom left). If something changes, something else must compensate to follow the same pathway.
It is worth noting that not all options remove the need for BECCS, thus likely we need some level of negative emissions in the future. My assessment would be that options that lower non-CO₂ lead to the biggest reductions in BECCS.
For a great summary & expert comments, read @DrSimEvans article @CarbonBrief. One of the most important passages of the paper is a discussion on what mitigation options are included in IAMs & how they are costed. This is an important discussion.
carbonbrief.org/world-can-limi…
I hope this paper leads to a better understanding & discussion of the challenges & opportunities of 1.5°C or 2°C. There are many alternative pathways often not modelled, & modelled pathways may be unrealistic.

Paper nature.com/articles/s4155…
Summary carbonbrief.org/world-can-limi…
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THREAD (The Global Status of CCS)

CCS is moving, but moving way too slowly for for 1.5°C or 2°C.

Even if you are not a CCS fan, worth checking the report by @GlobalCCS to get an update on the current status of CCS around the world.

#COP24 globalccsinstitute.com/resources/glob…
There currently exists ~40MtCO₂ per year capture *capacity* (0.1% global emissions), the vast majority for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). It is harder to know how much of CO₂ is stored (not commonly reported or verified), but the estimate here is 200MtCO₂ (cumulatively).
Of the 230MtCO₂ cumulative storage, the vast majority is in the US and for enhanced oil recovery. Norway is the only country (substantially) sequestering CO₂ specifically for storage purposes, where carbon pricing makes it beneficial to store the CO₂. Policy is important!
Read 9 tweets
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THREAD (Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are on track to rise more than 2% in 2018 (2.7%, range 1.8% to 3.7%). Emissions rose 1.6% in 2017 (leap-year adjusted) after a temporary slowdown from 2014 to 2016.

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Countries that need to slowdown:
* China, up 4.7% [2.0–7.4%]
* India, up 6.3% [4.3–8.3%]
* Others (largely developing), up 1.8% [0.5–3.0%]

Countries that need faster reductions:
* USA, up 2.5% [0.5–4.5%]
* EU, down 0.7% [-2.6–1.3%]

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
There is a broad spread in CO₂ emissions per capita, but for a chance of 1.5°C or 2°C, countries with low per capita emissions also have to reduce emissions.

Yes, developed countries have to do more, but they can’t do it alone!

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Read 10 tweets
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Does model bias effect outcomes of the #IPCC 1.5°C emission scenarios #SR15?

The scenario database is over represented by some model frameworks. Taking statistics will over represent some models (eg, REMIND, AIM), discount others (eg @IEA), & not all models included!

THREAD 1/
The bias varies by scenario category, here for 1.5°C scenarios with "no or low overshoot" as highlighted in #SR15. Should REMIND & POLES get more weight then GCAM or MERGE?
2/
I often take medians of scenarios to simplify communication, trying to reveal the "key characteristics" of 1.5°C (trying to find robust messages). The scenario community does not like this approach
3/
Read 8 tweets

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. @DetlefvanVuuren explaining the "default strategy" in the models for 1.5C #negco2
Important point by @DetlefvanVuuren:

"IAMs focus on cost-optimisation, not on societal constraints"

For example, diet change is not something normally assessed.
. @DetlefvanVuuren explains kinds of life-style change required for 1.5C pathway whilst greatly reducing reliance on BECCS.

"Only eating beef once a fortnight"

More here in @CarbonBrief by @DrSimEvans about his new @NatureClimate paper

#negco2

carbonbrief.org/world-can-limi…
Read 4 tweets

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