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Simon Usherwood @Usherwood
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Quick reminder that May's priority will be staunching #Windrush, even if that incurs collateral costs on #Brexit

1/
Problem will come in next month, when HMG has to advance alternative plans for Irish dimension, but May finds herself less able to move Cabinet

2/
Javid makes sense as Home Sec in #Windrush context, but doesn't help Brexit agenda, having neither Rudd's vigour nor the same confidence of May (yet)

3/
Problem is compounded by likely raised demands from EU on EU citizen rights post-March 2019, just as HMG less able/willing to shift on basic 'hostile environment' approach

4/
For long time, May was able to use long HO experience as basic for political credibility, but now it's coming to bite her (as was always likely to happen)

5/
In sum, UK continues to see Brexit only through lens of domestic politics, to its cost

/end
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More from @Usherwood see all

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Ugh. let's go through these quickly, shall we?

theguardian.com/politics/blog/…
Point 1 is basically already in the WA

1/
Point 2 is impossible, since having the WA in effect means the backstop is automatically implemented in the absence of a future deal

2/
Read 8 tweets
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A quick thread on one key reason why the UK gvt is getting tangled up over Brexit:

1/
You'll have noticed a pattern in gvt actions over the months: a decision is made, then shortcomings/gaps are found, so new decisions are made, which also don't quite work, and none of them provide blanket resolutions

2/
This has been so both in the Art.50 negotiations themselves and in the no-deal contingency planning

3/
Read 17 tweets
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A quick run-through of how the EU has dealt with non-approval of treaties, just, you know, in case:

1/
I'll start by noting this very useful book by @dermot_hodson and Imelda Maher, who are very much worth reading on this

2/
In short, the EU doesn't like re-opening texts, so failures to approve result in efforts to give the non-approver enough political space to accept the same legal text

3/
Read 19 tweets

Related threads

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1. Our current thinking is that the Chequers plan is totally unworkable. It is impractical and incompatible with EU and international law. The EU will reject it - but not immediately. It will use the time to plan for a no deal #Brexit
2. The general feeling, thanks to the propaganda of the Tory right is that the proposal is about as far as the UK can bend. This is odd because the proposal is not entirely dismiliar to some of the nonsense cooked up by pro-Brexit think tanks. Mrs May cannot win.
3. Mrs May could even adopt their alternative plans with some adjustments and the ultras would shift the goalposts again. They would cry betrayal at any concession. They are unappeasable. There is no deal they will support because they do not want a deal.
Read 20 tweets
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1. The ultra brexiters are going all out for their WTO option #Brexit. They are gradually pushing the narrative that anything including a withdrawal agreement is a betrayal of Brexit and their thicko followers are buying it. This is dangerous.
2. As a Brexiter of long standing I know these players quite well. They are all indoctrinated in the ultra libertarian deregulation fantasies and the fact that just about every business group says they don't want deregulation it does not have any impact on their delusions.
3. As to their followers, these are the intellectually subnormal grunters who genuinely do think the Eu is a modern manifestation of the USSR. They're not well. Now don't get me wrong, I'm still a leaver but these people are fucking loony tunes.
Read 27 tweets
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THREAD: Today's events in Westminster - which relate to the process and not the substance of Brexit - do not change the fundamental mess and chaos of Brexit. The UK is heading for a bad Brexit deal but its not a done deal - a lot will happen between now and the Autumn. /1
Its disappointing the so called "Grieve 2" amendment did not pass this afternoon (I,of course, voted for it) but significant that Ministers were forced to climb down and issue a statement acknowledging Parliament's vital role at the end of the process. /2
There are still 5 #Brexit related Bills still to make their way through Parliament which are legally binding and amendable: Customs Bill; Trade Bill; Fisheries Bill; Agriculture Bill; and, Immigration Bill. There will also be a huge number of statutory instruments to pass too. /3
Read 10 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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'European Press Reaction,' to #Brexit thread time. It's been a while, always good get some perspective. (Will add more during the day). /1
Comment in @DLF, leads: "Britain's departure from the World Stage." - "Brexit is political idiocy. By today, every observer should have realised by now that the United Kingdom will not only leave the EU but, above all, leave the world stage."2/
.@DLF: "Brexit is the biggest political idiocy since the Roman Emperor Caligula decided to appoint his favorite horse Incitatus as consul. Anyone who needed further proof of this thesis has received it today." 3/
Read 18 tweets

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