<THREAD> 1. It's now clear Trump will withdraw from the Iran deal. Macron sensed it. It fits his MO of reversing Obama legacy issues (think TPP, DACA, Obamacare). Bibi gave him a justification with his intel reveal. So whats's next? My take in @jdforward: forward.com/opinion/400299…
2. My views on the JCPOA haven't changed a bit. I believe it would keep Iran farther from a nuclear weapon for longer than any alternative. Nixing it will be a terrible mistake. I've worked with @mdubowitz, a deal opponent, to come up with possible fixes, but it is too late.
3. Here's the dirty secret obscured by the harsh debate between supporters and opponents of the JCPOA: Both sides want to prevent Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon, and both sides don't trust Iran not to try. They just differ on the most effective means to prevent it.
4. Supporters like me can acknowledge that the deal was not perfect. There were provisions that I wish had come out stronger. It bought time, some 10-15 years, an undervalued commodity. But no more than that. It did not end Iran's nuclear program, an unachievable objective.
5. It needed to be strengthened. The deal may have been sold as a fabulous deal because, in politics, that is how you sell things. In reality, as in so many aspects of international affairs, it was the least bad option. It wasn't great; it was just better than any alternative.
6. President Obama's decision to go that route was a judgment call. Too often, opponents reduce it to a morality play. Just scan my Twitter feed for some of the most ridiculous theories about Obama's "true agenda".
7. No, Obama didn't want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. No, he didn't want to harm Israel. No, he didn't long to see Iran dominate the Middle East. He concluded that this deal stood the best chance of keeping a nuclear weapon out of Iran's hands.
8. Trump has a different judgment. I have low confidence in his ability to make sound decisions, but that's about him. There are serious people who I respect who favor withdrawing from the deal. That doesn't make them war-mongers. I think it's a mistake. But I can see it coming.
9. So my focus is shifting. The priority needs to remain preventing Iran from getting a nukes. It's far too dangerous to let this regime possess that technology. Even without nukes, Iran wreaks mayhem all over the Middle East. We can't allow it to do so under a nuclear umbrella.
10. I believe that the JCPOA was the best (or least bad) option to achieve that goal. But if we don't have my preferred option available, I hope we can find the second least bad one.
11. I'm not sure what it is, and proponents of withdrawing from the deal have not been clear on their alternative. Getting Iran to agree to a new, tougher deal seems unlikely without generating unified international pressure, most difficult after Trump's unilateral move.
12. The Euros and Iran may try to stick with the deal, but it won't be sustainable. US sanctions on Euro firms & political pressures in Iran will lead to a slow collapse at first, then an Iranian rush to resume uranium enrichment perhaps stopping just short of a full break-out.
13. We will probably have to employ covert means. We will have to coordinate closely with Israel and our Gulf allies. If all else fails, we may need a military option. We have one because Obama put it in place. It is available, and so perhaps is an Israeli one.
14. It's a dangerous path, and we don't know where it could lead. Many Americans & Israelis, as well as Iranians, Lebanese, Syrians, Saudis, & Emiratis could die. And when it's over, Iran might be able to regenerate its program in less time than we'd have gained in the JCPOA.
15. We need to do everything possible to avoid these scenarios, while also keeping Iran from a nuclear weapon.
16. When Trump withdraws, I'll say it was a mistake, & believe it with all my heart. But I won't spend the next 3 years pointing out every failure resulting from it, or engaged in political point-scoring to place blame for what I consider a bad (I hope not catastrophic) decision.
17. JCPOA opponents were wrong to simply attack every aspect of the deal, & even the motives of those who support it, every day for the past 3 years. I'll try to find and support reasonable means to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. That must remain the priority. End
